I'm gonna say Missouri. Most people have it as a toss-up McCain or a lean McCain state. I actually think it is a pure toss-up with only a very, very small tilt to McCain. Obama can easily win this state.
I can see why people would say Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico.
Haven't you been reading? I've given up on the idea of Oklahoma being a swing state this year. I still think Obama will do better than expected (maybe high 30s or 40%), but will still get crushed here. I'm thinking the McCain/Obama numbers to be close to 2000. In that election, Bush beat Gore 60-38. I think it will be very similar this year. It could also be another 1988 where Bush beat Dukakis 58-41, but no closer.
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