I'm gonna say Missouri. Most people have it as a toss-up McCain or a lean McCain state. I actually think it is a pure toss-up with only a very, very small tilt to McCain. Obama can easily win this state.
I can see why people would say Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico.
Really? Not Oklahoma?
Haven't you been reading? I've given up on the idea of Oklahoma being a swing state this year. I still think Obama will do better than expected (maybe high 30s or 40%), but will still get crushed here. I'm thinking the McCain/Obama numbers to be close to 2000. In that election, Bush beat Gore 60-38. I think it will be very similar this year. It could also be another 1988 where Bush beat Dukakis 58-41, but no closer.
But wasn't part of the Oklahoma results because Lloyd Bentsen was on the ticket? I seem to also recall that possibly helping Dukakis in Louisiana as well...