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Author Topic: Onward to 2008!  (Read 3703 times)
© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« on: August 29, 2004, 01:40:18 PM »

It is becoming increasingly clear Sen. Kerry will not be elected in November.  Just turn on CSPAN and you'll see why.  Also, the latest polls have Bush's approval rating soaring in to the low 50s.

Lets hope for the best in 2006 (time will tell if we have a chance then either) and rally behind a strong candidate for 2008.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #1 on: August 29, 2004, 01:46:32 PM »


Funny how some Republicans were saying the exact opposite thing two weeks ago.  The real campaign season doesn't even start until next week!
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afleitch
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« Reply #2 on: August 29, 2004, 03:37:16 PM »

What on earth? Nothing is clear absolutely nothing. Kerry's lead last month was fragile, as is Bush's lead today. Bush will climb into September but its not over. Not by a long shot. Gore was down in dozens of national and state polls this time last round and he bet Bush in the popular vote. Kerry is leading in every Gore state, minus Wisconsin, and he is leading in New Hampshire. It's not over. Never be defeatest. Remember 1980? Undicided till polling day.
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Lunar
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« Reply #3 on: August 29, 2004, 03:42:06 PM »

It is becoming increasingly clear Sen. Kerry will not be elected in November.

You've been saying that forever Boss, hah.

The election has always been a giant rubber band so far, bouncing back and forth between each candidate.  Now, with Bush a couple percent ahead in the polls, it's like the race is already decided?
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A18
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« Reply #4 on: August 29, 2004, 03:44:03 PM »

Yeah, when they released that DUI report the weekend before the election, it was close.

Kerry can't win. If he did win, it'd destroy the Democratic party.
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Akno21
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« Reply #5 on: August 29, 2004, 03:46:02 PM »

Bill Richardson/Mark Warner 2008!

if that doesn't work

Hillary Clinton/John Edwards 2008!

if that doesn't work

Barack Obama/John Breaux 2008!

All of those tickets would do better than Kerry/Edwards. I do think Bush will win, although it really all comes down to a few states.

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afleitch
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« Reply #6 on: August 29, 2004, 03:47:44 PM »

I believe a second Bush term will be a disaster for the Republicans in the long term. The country is polarised. Bush will have 'honeymoon' ratings of 60%, which will fall to the 40's before the summer of 2005. I see a Democratic landslide on the cards come 2008 if Bush wins. Also, if Kerry wins, I think he will loose come 2008.
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #7 on: August 29, 2004, 04:50:59 PM »

Edwards/Obama!
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Dr. Cynic
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« Reply #8 on: August 29, 2004, 04:54:06 PM »

Sometimes I hope Kerry will lose. But, That means we'll have four more years of Bush AAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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A18
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« Reply #9 on: August 29, 2004, 05:04:14 PM »

Can someone name one thing Bush has done to hurt him?
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JohnFKennedy
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« Reply #10 on: August 29, 2004, 05:12:43 PM »


That wouldn't work methinks, too inexperienced.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #11 on: August 29, 2004, 05:17:44 PM »


Edwards/Ford Jr.

A more moderate Obama almost from a better state with a touch more experience.
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #12 on: August 29, 2004, 06:58:37 PM »

Yeah, yeah, I think Bush'll win Sad
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AuH2O
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« Reply #13 on: August 29, 2004, 06:59:52 PM »

From the beginning, I've said the exact same thing: this horse-race nonsense obscures the fact that the election is NOT decided by day-to-day events, unless they are of extraordinary consequence. That's why my prediction has been the same from the day Kerry locked up the Dem nomination.

If you isolate the candidates, and draw up the dynamics of the race, it is obvious Bush is the heavy favorite. Pre-RNC polls have driven all the Kerry talk, but that's all it ever was- talk. Everyone said it was "Kerry's race to lose"-- which meant, when he lost, they could say "Kerry lost it" rather than "I was wrong." Very convenient.



Whichever party wins in '04 is kind of screwed for '08, though the GOP does have something in it's favor.

In an emergency, they can call up Rudy Guiliani. The Dems have no response.
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Michael Z
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« Reply #14 on: August 29, 2004, 07:08:39 PM »

I believe a second Bush term will be a disaster for the Republicans in the long term. The country is polarised. Bush will have 'honeymoon' ratings of 60%, which will fall to the 40's before the summer of 2005. I see a Democratic landslide on the cards come 2008 if Bush wins. Also, if Kerry wins, I think he will loose come 2008.

If economists and other commentators are to be believed then Bush's tax cuts of 2001 will leave him with some major economic troubles during a second term. A Bush victory in 2004 could do for the Republicans what Major's 1992 victory did for the Conservatives in Britain, ie. leave the party dogged by an internal ideological struggle (in this case between moderates, eg. McCain, Giuliani etc, and the religious right) and perceived governmental incompetence.

Btw, I agree with Boss Tweed that Edwards/Ford is the Democrats' best ticket for 2008.
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A18
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« Reply #15 on: August 29, 2004, 07:23:20 PM »

No nation has ever taxed its way into prosperity.

And because taxes do not create an economy, they cannot destroy one when cut. Go find the economist that predicted that crap and punch him the face. Twice.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #16 on: August 29, 2004, 07:48:08 PM »

it's a little premature to be declaring a winner.

barring any major events, i expect the election to be super close.
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Dr. Cynic
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« Reply #17 on: August 29, 2004, 08:13:41 PM »

I agree with Walter Mitty. We won't know the winner until Election Day.
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A18
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« Reply #18 on: August 29, 2004, 08:22:23 PM »

You could have said that about Reagan-Mondale though.

Obviously no one can be sure, but I think George Bush will win. Nothing without providence...
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raggage
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« Reply #19 on: August 29, 2004, 08:25:23 PM »

It is becoming increasingly clear Sen. Kerry will not be elected in November.  Just turn on CSPAN and you'll see why.  Also, the latest polls have Bush's approval rating soaring in to the low 50s.

Lets hope for the best in 2006 (time will tell if we have a chance then either) and rally behind a strong candidate for 2008.

Frankly, I am quite surprised at your pessimism. The way I see it, the 'Left' Base has been solidified, as has that of the 'Right'. Opinion polls mean nothing in terms of popular vote, in an electoral college system. If Kerry does well in Ohio for example , and solidifies his lead in the Gore states, he can win. Regardless of who eventually does win, its obviously going to be really, really close.
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A18
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« Reply #20 on: August 29, 2004, 08:28:10 PM »

I really doubt it will be close.
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StevenNick
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« Reply #21 on: August 30, 2004, 01:31:56 AM »

What on earth? Nothing is clear absolutely nothing. Kerry's lead last month was fragile, as is Bush's lead today. Bush will climb into September but its not over. Not by a long shot. Gore was down in dozens of national and state polls this time last round and he bet Bush in the popular vote.

Yes, Gore was down at this point in the campaign in 2000.  The difference between then and now is that then it was Gore who was having the later convention to make up for some of his popular deficit.  This time around, Bush is not only up, he's up right before the start of the republican convention.
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StevenNick
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« Reply #22 on: August 30, 2004, 01:35:33 AM »

Am I the only one who's getting really tired of all everybody endlessly repeating the conventional wisdom that this election will necessarily be close.  It certainly could be, but the race could easily break one way or another between now and election day.  Honestly, I think Bush will open up a wider lead between now and the election.  I don't think the swift vets story is going to go away any time soon, the economy is growing, Bush's approval ratings are on a rebound, and the Bush campaign has a much better organization than the Kerry campaign.  All that put together suggests to me that Bush has a shot of winning this election by a much wider than expected margin--maybe 8 to 10 points.

Of course, I could be way, way, way off.
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Reignman
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« Reply #23 on: August 30, 2004, 01:44:43 AM »

wait...Kerry can't win...because?
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MODU
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« Reply #24 on: August 30, 2004, 06:59:09 AM »


Because he hasn't generated any true support for himself as a candidate.  Most of those who are backing Kerry at the moment are part of the ABB crowd.  There is only so many of them in the nation.  Where as Bush can appease some of the ABB's, Kerry can't pull away the GOP voters from Bush (most polls show a higher percentage of GOPs backing Bush than DNCs backing Kerry).

The best Kerry can do nationally is 50%.  Bush has the potential of doing better.
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