PR: Hillary! with narrow lead over Obama

[Verily]

+13 would definitely be narrow by the expectations game, as the general over-under from media sources seems more like a thirty-point margin (or, rather, that Clinton will win around two-thirds of the vote).

I wish we had more information on the breakdown of the poll. Anyone have a link? (Doesn't have to be in English.)

[Verily]

No idea, but some breakdowns I found:

If Puerto Rico could vote for President, both Clinton and Obama lead McCain 72-10.

37% said they were absolutely certain to vote, which means that will likely be the turnout (of all registered voters). 48% said they were at least somewhat likely to vote, and that was the group surveyed for their voting intention.

[Verily]

So Puerto Rico polling is as bad as US polling.  Not surprised.

They way overestimated turnout, which I suspect is what sank them (as the group most likely to vote was the group most favorable to Clinton).