AuH2O
YaBB God
Posts: 4,239
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« on: August 29, 2004, 06:59:52 PM » |
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From the beginning, I've said the exact same thing: this horse-race nonsense obscures the fact that the election is NOT decided by day-to-day events, unless they are of extraordinary consequence. That's why my prediction has been the same from the day Kerry locked up the Dem nomination.
If you isolate the candidates, and draw up the dynamics of the race, it is obvious Bush is the heavy favorite. Pre-RNC polls have driven all the Kerry talk, but that's all it ever was- talk. Everyone said it was "Kerry's race to lose"-- which meant, when he lost, they could say "Kerry lost it" rather than "I was wrong." Very convenient.
Whichever party wins in '04 is kind of screwed for '08, though the GOP does have something in it's favor.
In an emergency, they can call up Rudy Guiliani. The Dems have no response.
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