Onward to 2008!

[afleitch]

What on earth? Nothing is clear absolutely nothing. Kerry's lead last month was fragile, as is Bush's lead today. Bush will climb into September but its not over. Not by a long shot. Gore was down in dozens of national and state polls this time last round and he bet Bush in the popular vote. Kerry is leading in every Gore state, minus Wisconsin, and he is leading in New Hampshire. It's not over. Never be defeatest. Remember 1980? Undicided till polling day.

[afleitch]

I believe a second Bush term will be a disaster for the Republicans in the long term. The country is polarised. Bush will have 'honeymoon' ratings of 60%, which will fall to the 40's before the summer of 2005. I see a Democratic landslide on the cards come 2008 if Bush wins. Also, if Kerry wins, I think he will loose come 2008.

[afleitch]

I think Bush will open and hold a 3-4 point lead by November, but with Nader off the ballot in key states and a high turnout, the race will tighten. Kerry is good at coming back from the dead, even after a 'character assassination' Kerry will gain states like Missouri, while loosing in states like Wisconsin. I've said it before and I'll say it again, it will be close run thing right to the polls close in the West. Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Arizona will be 'Too Close to Call' for longer than usual, and i think Kerry will take Nevada and New Mexico (with Colorado VERY CLOSE) and take a 274 victory or something similar. Expect to see a lot of grey and not much red and blue on the map until later on.