Puerto Rico Democratic primary results discussion thread

[Alcon]

Interesting how the electorate was 52% male, and there was no gender split whatsoever.

[Verily]

Interesting how the electorate was 52% male, and there was no gender split whatsoever.

Yet those who said gender was important preferred Clinton more strongly than those who didn't.

[Torie]

Maybe someone posted this already but whatever: CNN said 77% of the 78% of the voters who like Bill Clinton supported Hillary, and that comes out to 60%, so Hillary per the exit poll will win by at least a 3-2 margin.

[Tender Branson]

Anyone have any links to the official election website for Puerto Rico, or any other sites where they will be posting incoming information by region?

Here´s the official results page of the CEEPUR (Puerto Rico's Election Commission):

http://www.ceepur.org/Presidenciales08/Div/index.aspx.htm

[Alcon]

Obama also did better among those without a college degree than with...wtf Puerto Rico.

[NOVA Green]

Anyone have any links to the official election website for Puerto Rico, or any other sites where they will be posting incoming information by region?

Here´s the official results page of the CEEPUR (Puerto Rico's Election Commission):

http://www.ceepur.org/Presidenciales08/Div/index.aspx.htm

Thanks!

[J. J.]

Delegates?

[Verily]

Obama also did better among those without a college degree than with...wtf Puerto Rico.

Given the enormous number of liars (54% with college degrees!?), I don't think we can take anything from that.

[Alcon]

Obama also did better among those without a college degree than with...wtf Puerto Rico.

Given the enormous number of liars (54% with college degrees!?), I don't think we can take anything from that.

Haha, true.  Based on the 2000 bachelor degree rate being 21%, maybe around half of those are liars.

[Torie]

Obama also did better among those without a college degree than with...wtf Puerto Rico.

I think some of it is due to Hillary campaigning in PR, and Obama not.

[Meeker]

CNN says 325,000 to 425,000

[True Democrat]

CNN says 325,000 to 425,000

I'm guessing that's turnout, not margin.

[Meeker]

CNN says 325,000 to 425,000

I'm guessing that's turnout, not margin.

Correct. My bad

[Torie]

Delegates?

You can read about the allocation methods  here. It looks like Hillary will get close to two thirds of the delegates at a minimum, unless Obama voters are concentrated in key places.

[Alcon]

CNN says 325,000 to 425,000

Even the high-end of that comes in under the low-end of most pre-election estimates.

[Alcon]

Terry McAuliffe:  "Every poll shows Clinton beating McCain, and Obama losing to McCain"

Bulls**t.

[Mr. Morden]

From NBC's telephone "exit poll":

Both Clinton and Obama had good favorability ratings (don't remember the exact numbers), but 17% didn't have an opinion one way or the other on Clinton, and a whopping 37% didn't have an opinion one way or the other on Obama.  (And these are people who allegedly voted today.)  So Puerto Ricans' relative unfamiliarity with Obama likely played a role.

Also, a whopping 50% of Democratic primary voters described themselves as "conservative"(!).

[Angel of Death]

Based on the turnout, Hillary's margin is no way near enough for her to make a plausible popular vote argument.

[Torie]

CNN says 325,000 to 425,000

Even the high-end of that comes in under the low-end of most pre-election estimates.

Yep, and Hillary might have to continue using  her selective math to claim she got more votes than Obama at the end of the day. But other posters are more assiduous than I in keeping track of the numbers (which will be moot in 3-4 days anyway).

[Verily]

CNN says 325,000 to 425,000

Even the high-end of that comes in under the low-end of most pre-election estimates.

Yeah, very low turnout. Interesting given that the polls (despite being really off, although maybe they just overestimated turnout) suggested that higher turnout would be better for Obama.

The party breakdown is the most interesting part. That the PNP constituted the bulk of voters suggests either that right-wing penepistes voted or that pepedistes are even less likely to vote in a US election than I thought. (Also worth noting that Obama won the 11% who said they wouldn't vote in November if PR could vote overwhelmingly--presumably, the soft pro-independence vote.)

[Meeker]

Terry McAuliffe:  "Every poll shows Clinton beating McCain, and Obama losing to McCain"

Bulls**t.

Yea, I yelled at my screen on that one.

[Verily]

From NBC's telephone "exit poll":

Both Clinton and Obama had good favorability ratings (don't remember the exact numbers), but 17% didn't have an opinion one way or the other on Clinton, and a whopping 37% didn't have an opinion one way or the other on Obama.  (And these are people who allegedly voted today.)  So Puerto Ricans' relative unfamiliarity with Obama likely played a role.

Also, a whopping 50% of Democratic primary voters described themselves as "conservative"(!).

They're Catholics. They call themselves conservativos, and they are, culturally. Of course, Puerto Ricans vote primarily on economics and not hot-button social issues, and they don't equate "conservative" with right-wing economics.

[Tender Branson]

From the Exit Poll:

Could Clinton Improve Life in PR ?

Yes - 79%
No - 20%

Well, she should run for Governor of Puerto Rico then ...

[Franzl]

I'm waiting for "As Puerto Rico goes, so goes the nation!"

[Meeker]

Puerto Rico hand counts FYI.

They also may need to some, err, "adjustments" to the results before they release them. Just to assure accuracy of course.