Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Meeker]

Well this is very welcome news

In my opinion we've now got the 48th pretty well locked down. I think there's a good chance Cyrus Habib jumps up to the Senate race (and then McBride drops down to Habib's House seat).

I'm very nervous about the 30th. The 44th is also at risk (Hobbs recently got a rich guy opponent).

Our best shots at a pick-up are the 45th and the 28th, though I'm not sure in which order. The 6th is interesting as well. Our candidate is raising good money and Baumgartner has had... issues.

The 35th is a bit of a question mark - the real Democrat is running a serious campaign and there's a Republican in the race. Sheldon only needs 34% to make it to the general though, which he should be able to get.

I don't think we have much of any shot at the 26th or the 47th. We don't even have a candidate in the latter.

I guess I'd say 60-40 odds the Senate is controlled by Republicans + Sheldon next year.

[Meeker]

Sheldon wasn't really a part of the Democratic caucus even before the MCC came to be... it's hard for me to see him giving control of the chamber back to the Democrats. I bet at this point he'd vote for a Republican to be majority leader, perhaps not Schoesler though (maybe Hill? Dammeier? I think Fain is running for AG so probably not him). I've got no idea if Sheldon himself would want the job.

The only two Democrats I could see him supporting to take Tom's place would be Hobbs and Hatfield, but I don't think they'd go for it. It's also possible Republicans take the majority without needing Sheldon's vote, and I'm not sure what he or they would do in that circumstance.

You're probably correct on Hill now that I think about it more.

[Meeker]

Sheldon says he's sticking with the MCC/GOP/Forces of Darkness: http://crosscut.com/2014/04/15/under-the-dome/119647/lone-democrat-senate-majority-no-problem/

[Meeker]

Also, the first fundraising numbers in WA-04 have arrived. Dan Newhouse leads with $162k raised followed by Didier with $103k. Janéa Holmquist Newbry is in third with $62k.

George Cicotte (lawyer from the Tri-Cities) and Brad Peck each raised less than $30k but loaned their campaigns $75k.

[Meeker]

One of the socialist organizers behind Sawant's campaign is running against Frank Chopp. Sawant herself got 29% against Chopp in 2012. She won the 43rd with 57% in 2013.

[Meeker]

The SA candidate is listed on the King County website. Not sure why she isn't on the SOS page.

[Meeker]

The voters' guide is here! http://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/

[Meeker]

I didn't have a lot of time in Seattle during my trip, but spent most of the run up to the election north of Bellingham. There were lots of signs there, and one aspect of them caught my eye. A large number were mounted on wooden posts and frames. That's virtually unknown in the Midwest except for amateur posts. Almost all campaign signs in my home area are on wire frames (for plastic bag or folding paper) or wire posts (for corrugated plastic).

PS Bummer that the election kept me from meeting Alcon.

We've got really rocky soil; the wire frame signs get bent up going into the ground. Some rookie campaigns purchase them to save money but they always do wooden posts the second time around.

They are a pain in the rear to purchase, assemble, store, and distribute, plus you need mallets to pound the stakes into the ground. But life is tough, I suppose.

[Meeker]

Title update. Dull and unoriginal, like this campaign season #zing

[Meeker]

I've added results for all the statewide executive contests in the 2020 general election, as well as for Referendum 90, the Lt. Governor top-two primary, and the Lt. Governor primary as if it were two seperate partisan contests: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=53&f=0&off=99

I did make one boo-boo and accidentally entered 2018's Initiative 940 as a 2020 contest, and I don't have permissions to go back and change the year. I've emailed Dave about it. The results for the contest are accurate in all other respects.