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  Washington '18: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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Author Topic: Washington '18: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 618941 times)
Meeker
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« Reply #25 on: June 06, 2008, 12:21:09 pm »

Mohammad Hasan Said files!
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Alcon
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« Reply #26 on: June 06, 2008, 12:31:24 pm »
« Edited: June 06, 2008, 12:33:09 pm by Alcon »

Mohammad Hasan Said files!

No politician refuses to use "the" in ballot statements quite like him Purple heart
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Meeker
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« Reply #27 on: June 06, 2008, 12:38:37 pm »

In other good news for democracy, only one of the 22 Judicial races in Pierce County is contested.

Why do we even bother electing these guys? It just wastes time and paper.
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Alcon
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« Reply #28 on: June 06, 2008, 01:46:51 pm »
« Edited: June 06, 2008, 01:50:28 pm by Alcon »

Congressional competition.  This year's round of jokes, for state outsiders' sake:

1st – Jay Inslee* (D) v. Larry Ishmael (R)
Ishmael is a business consultant and Issaquah School Board member.  Unfortunately for him, Issaquah isn't any more in the First District than it was the last time he ran, so he's still a filthy carpetbagger.

2nd – Rick Larsen* (D) v. Rick Bart (R)
Rick Bart is the Snohomish County Sheriff and uses the email address theoriginalposse@live.com.  God help us all.

3rd – Brian Baird* (D) v. Michael Delavar (R)
Michael Delavar is a pilot with a suspiciously good web site that makes it obvious that he's a right-winged Paulite.

4th – George Fearing (D) v. "Doc" Hastings* (R)
According to the web site of Leavy, Shultz, Davis & Fearing, George Fearing is a "brilliant attorney and an indispensable asset to our firm."  Fortunately for Leavy, Shultz, Davis & Fearing, he will continue to be.

5th – Mark Mays (D) v. Cathy McMorris Rodgers* (R)
Mark Mays is a Spokane psychologist, attorney and professor, which probably one-ups challenger Barbara Lampert’s progressive platform of “I’m retired, so I’ll file for every office in the world ever.”

6th – Norm Dicks* (D) v. Doug Cloud (R)
Who cares?

7th – Jim McDermott* (D) v. Steve Beren (R)
Beren is a former socialist who found Jesus after 9/11 and apparently doesn’t realize that no one really cares.

8th – Darcy Burner (D) v. Dave Reichert* (R)
Actually somewhat competitive.  Personally, I think the Democrats would have been better-off with Rodney Tom.

9th – Adam Smith* (D)
Unopposed so far, surprisingly.
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bgwah
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« Reply #29 on: June 06, 2008, 03:22:05 pm »

I'm disappointed with the Secretary of State race. If the Democrats could've found a qualified candidate it would have been an easy pick-up. Sad

Remember in 2000, the 7th district was D vs. G vs. L? I would've loved to see another Green run and stop the Republicans from getting on the general ballot. haha.

Doug Sutherland has won by small margins both times he's been elected, IIRC. I wonder if Goldmark has any chance of taking him out.

I support Burner of course, though she's kind of a disappointing candidate. In 2004 the Democrats run a radio show host and barely lose. In 2006 they run a..., hey I don't even know what Darcy Burner does, and she barely loses.

So sad to think that if the Democrats would just run a state legislator from the Eastside they would easily win this, yet they keep throwing the opportunity away and making it competitive. Sigh.

If Burner wins this year, I don't expect her to get re-elected too many times if you get my drift...
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ottermax
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« Reply #30 on: June 06, 2008, 06:35:31 pm »

I like Darcy Burner. She is a good candidate but she just didn't know how to run a campaign last time. I hope she has learned and will be better this time around.
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Alcon
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« Reply #31 on: June 06, 2008, 08:57:06 pm »

Someone named "Cleaver" has registered under the SalmonYoga Party.

This is officially a joke.

Someone named Thomas Thomas is a Republican candidate in the 24th.  Apparently it's even a real name.  And Will Baker has filed!  Hooray!
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Verily
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« Reply #32 on: June 06, 2008, 10:39:15 pm »

Someone named "Cleaver" has registered under the SalmonYoga Party.

This is officially a joke.

Someone named Thomas Thomas is a Republican candidate in the 24th.  Apparently it's even a real name.  And Will Baker has filed!  Hooray!

There's a local politician around here named Daniel Daniel.
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Meeker
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« Reply #33 on: June 07, 2008, 01:07:26 am »

I've got some more comments and analysis to add later, but for now I'm quite pissed off at the 28th District Republican Party. You are a joke.
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bgwah
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« Reply #34 on: June 07, 2008, 01:26:06 am »

So many third party candidates! This would be really entertaining if we still had normal elections... Sad

Anyone know why the Constitution Party is back all of the sudden? And, as someone pointed out earlier, why the Libertarian Party is running so few candidates?

Anyway, glad to see the Democrats are actually running candidates in the 5th legislative district this time. Smiley
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Meeker
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« Reply #35 on: June 07, 2008, 07:29:32 am »

I guess the CP just got really organized this year, and probably more importantly, got some sort of big fundraising score. I know their Auditor candidate is very serious - not sure if the other ones are just there to fluff the ballot. Regardless, glad to see them still surviving.

My only theory with the LP is that they're really cash strapped. In 2006 they tried to pool all their resources to get the 5% necessary in the Senate race to achieve major party status, but they obviously couldn't try anything like that this year so I'm not really sure what their strategy is going to be. Maybe they want to save their money and spend it campaigning for Barr/Root rather than spending it on filing fees for offices that won't even make it off the August ballot? Or they just have no money at all.

And the Greens made it to the general in the San Juans! Cheesy
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« Reply #36 on: June 07, 2008, 04:58:17 pm »

The Republican congressional challengers are hilarious.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #37 on: June 07, 2008, 06:50:13 pm »

This thread makes Washington politics seem like the funniest thing since the Three Stooges.
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Meeker
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« Reply #38 on: June 07, 2008, 10:12:38 pm »

Didn't notice this before - Ruth Bennett, the LP's 2004 nominee for Governor, is in a one-on-one race with an incumbent Democratic House member. She'll be lucky to break 10%

So we have a D v. G, a D v. L  and two D v. I races for State House, and a D v. I race for State Senate. We won't know about quite a few D v. D and R v. R races until the August primary, but several appear likely in addition to the 5 that are assured (5 Republicans for the House in District 7, 2 Republicans for the House in District 8, 3 Democrats for the Senate in District 11, 2 Democrats for the Senate in District 22, and 2 Democrats for the House in District 32).

8 Senators are unopposed for re-election, as are 19 Representatives, which I'm actually pretty sure is down from last year.
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bgwah
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« Reply #39 on: June 07, 2008, 11:54:15 pm »

Every election should be D vs. G!
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #40 on: June 08, 2008, 02:18:45 pm »

Does Washington have any two-winner elections?  And how will those work.  In Nebraska's nonpartisan races which have "top two" primaries, if x candidates are to be elected in the general election, the top 2x candidates in the primary advance to the general election ballot.

I know the two state Representatives elected from each State Legislative District in Washington are elected in separate contests, but there may be some two-winner contests for other offices.  There are in Maine for county charter commissions (those elections are nonpartisan, with no primary or party designations listed) when they are on the ballot, with two charter commissioners elected from each county commissioner district conditional on the concurrent referendum approving the formation of the commission passing (it usually doesn't).  Only one county, Aroostook, has adopted a charter I believe, although Knox County does have an elected Budget Committee unlike all other counties (Aroostook County has an elected Finance Committee) so perhaps they have a charter as well.
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Meeker
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« Reply #41 on: June 08, 2008, 03:25:17 pm »

Does Washington have any two-winner elections?  And how will those work.  In Nebraska's nonpartisan races which have "top two" primaries, if x candidates are to be elected in the general election, the top 2x candidates in the primary advance to the general election ballot.

I know the two state Representatives elected from each State Legislative District in Washington are elected in separate contests, but there may be some two-winner contests for other offices.  There are in Maine for county charter commissions (those elections are nonpartisan, with no primary or party designations listed) when they are on the ballot, with two charter commissioners elected from each county commissioner district conditional on the concurrent referendum approving the formation of the commission passing (it usually doesn't).  Only one county, Aroostook, has adopted a charter I believe, although Knox County does have an elected Budget Committee unlike all other counties (Aroostook County has an elected Finance Committee) so perhaps they have a charter as well.

I'm not aware of any. There are some counties that have adopted their own charter so their elections will differ from most counties and might not even use top-two (see Pierce County), but even in those counties I can't think of any office with two winners.

Speaking of Pierce County, the Assessor-Treasurer race has six candidates with fairly good name recognition countywide and voters are only allowed to rank three. I have a great suspicion that thousands of voters are going to exhaust their three choices before we have a winner... at which point all hell breaks loose. Can you feel the impending disaster?
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Meeker
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« Reply #42 on: June 08, 2008, 04:24:17 pm »

More statistics about why this system sucks:

- In 92 out of the 124 races (74%) on the ballot, there is only one or two candidates on the ballot. So the primary is meaningless, but we're still going to spend money and time on it.

- There are 207 candidates for the Legislature this year, as opposed to 233 in 2006. So we get fewer choices.
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ottermax
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« Reply #43 on: June 08, 2008, 06:46:12 pm »

More statistics about why this system sucks:

- In 92 out of the 124 races (74%) on the ballot, there is only one or two candidates on the ballot. So the primary is meaningless, but we're still going to spend money and time on it.

- There are 207 candidates for the Legislature this year, as opposed to 233 in 2006. So we get fewer choices.

How many races were there in 2006? There are going to be flaws in the first year of this system. People will get used to it and then elections will become interesting.
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Meeker
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« Reply #44 on: June 08, 2008, 09:06:30 pm »

More statistics about why this system sucks:

- In 92 out of the 124 races (74%) on the ballot, there is only one or two candidates on the ballot. So the primary is meaningless, but we're still going to spend money and time on it.

- There are 207 candidates for the Legislature this year, as opposed to 233 in 2006. So we get fewer choices.

How many races were there in 2006? There are going to be flaws in the first year of this system. People will get used to it and then elections will become interesting.

The same number of races.

There are always going to be flaws in this system. It sucks.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #45 on: June 08, 2008, 09:26:01 pm »

anyone have any comments or knowledge on the 35th LD house race? I want to know a little bit more and also see if anyone thinks it could turn into a D vs D race after the primary...
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Meeker
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« Reply #46 on: June 08, 2008, 09:46:26 pm »

My Chem teacher is good friends with one of the candidates, says he's a good guy. I highly doubt it'll turn D v. D, but Washington voters are weird and at this point I wouldn't put it past them. Who knows, it may become very common for single-party generals in relatively competitive districts depending on the candidates. We just won't know until we've gone through it at least once.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #47 on: June 09, 2008, 10:41:29 pm »

More statistics about why this system sucks:

- In 92 out of the 124 races (74%) on the ballot, there is only one or two candidates on the ballot. So the primary is meaningless, but we're still going to spend money and time on it.

- There are 207 candidates for the Legislature this year, as opposed to 233 in 2006. So we get fewer choices.

How many races were there in 2006? There are going to be flaws in the first year of this system. People will get used to it and then elections will become interesting.
Actually there are 274 candidates this year, including 13 independent or 3rd party candidates.   In 2006, there was a single 3rd party candidate.

In 2006, there were 65 D v. R races where the primary was meaningless, and 21 D and 14 R races where both the primary and general were meaningless.  There were also 1 D v D primary, and 1 R v R primary where the primary was decisive.

In 2008, there are 57 D v. R races and 5 D vs. independent/3rd where the primary is redundant*, and
18 D and 9 R races where the primary and general are meaningless*.  In 2008, there are 2 D v D races, and 1 races with 3 D's only, and 1 race with 5 R's only.  In 2006, these would have been decided in the primary, but in 2008 they will be open to all voters without having to deliberately cross over.

So the number of races that were somewhat degenerate in form has dropped from 102/124 (82%) to 89/126 (72%).  Because there are an odd number of LD/senate seats, one election always has one more race, and there is also a special election for the remaining 2 years of the LD 34 senate seat.

* Washington has a formal system of write-in candidacies, and counting write-in votes, but does require a candidate to have 1% of the vote to advance to the general election.  A write-in candidate can actually declare his party preference, and if he does finish in the Top 2 and receive 1% of the vote, that preference will be shown on the general election ballot.  Given that many voters will skip a race with an unopposed candidate, someone with a minimally organized write-in campaign could secure a place on the general election ballot, which would make the general election an actual contest.

It is quite possible that there will be more participation in the primary by independent and non-partisan voters.  While in the past these voters could participate, they may have been more reluctant to interfere in what was formally a partisan primary.

There will always be many legislative seats that are uncontested because they are held by an incumbent.  The voters already elected them once, and unless the voters decide they made a mistake there is really no recent to expect a different result, and it costs money to run a political campaign, and even more for a successful one.  If a seat is open due to retirement or term limits, it will attract a bunch of people who see an opportunity.  But afterwards, the challengers may be more lackluster.

Washington's system of two representatives per LD, but separate positions may also reduce the number of contested elections.  It appears that it is fairly common practice for one party to contest only one position in a LD.  There are a certain share of voters who will deliberately split their vote.  If they are forced to vote for a D in one position, they pay pick the R in the other position to balance their vote.  If they had to choose between a D and R for both positions, they might still split their vote, but these ticket-splitter might not do so in a consistent fashion, which will simply result in a more dominant party sweeping the election.  In 2006, 14 of 49 LD's had that pattern.  In 2008, there are only 6 such candidates.

Of course it is possible that some of the additional candidates are attracted by the novelty of the system, and may not be serious candidates.  This may include candidates who filed with a preference for the Republican or Democratic party, but who did not have much connection to the formal party.
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Alcon
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« Reply #48 on: June 09, 2008, 11:44:28 pm »

Jim, I'm convinced.  You are a robot.
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Meeker
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« Reply #49 on: June 10, 2008, 12:00:04 am »

Yea, I can't compete with that.

System still sucks though.
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