Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[bgwah]

I just read Rossi's statement in the voter's pamphlet. I was honestly a little nervous at first that it might be something good, but now I'm wondering how the heck this guy isn't trailing by 20 points.

[bgwah]

MY BALLOT!

County initiative 26:
Part 1) No
Part 2) Council-proposed alternative

U.S. Rep. District #8:  Darcy Burner (D)
Governor:  Christine Gregoire (D)
Lieutenant Governor:  Brad Owen (D)
Secretary of State:  Write-in: Dean Logan
State Treasurer:  ChangMook Sohn (D)
State Auditor:  Brian Sonntag (D)
Attorney General:  John Ladenburg (D)
Commissioner of Public Lands:  Peter J. Goldmark (D)
Insurance Commissioner:  Mike Kreidler (D)
Superintendent of Public Instruction:  Randy Dorn
Leg Dist #5 Senator: Phyllis Huster (D)
Leg Dist #5 Representative #1: Joe Viebrock (D)
Leg Dist #5 Representative #2: David Spring (D)
Supreme Court Justice Pos. 3:  Mary Fairhurst
Supreme Court Justice Pos. 4:  Write-in: Freedom Fighter
Supreme Court Justice Pos. 7:  Debra Stephens

And a bunch of other county judges that nobody cares about....

[bgwah]

^ Alcon gets a boner over how "undecided" he is.

[bgwah]

And a bunch of other county judges that nobody cares about....

I'm actually psuedo-working for a few of those judicial candidates. Do you remember who you picked?

And tsk, tsk at Alcon for Rossi and Hecht.

Umm

Tim Bradshaw
Jean Bouffard
Holly Hill
Laura Gene Middaugh
Jean Rietschel
Mariane Spearman

[bgwah]

Eh, 1/3. At least you bother to vote in them

1/3? I fail?

[bgwah]

LOL@the Dean Logan vote, by the way.

At least someone thought it was funny. I felt so clever when I decided to that.

[bgwah]

^ LOL Eric Earling.

[bgwah]

I just want to puke every time I see an ad for the scumbag. He really is disgusting.

[bgwah]

Some of the smaller counties, like Pacific, have such a small population that you can't really read too much into their turnout percentages, it's just sort of a year-by-year randomness.

King is the really worry though. This just confirms what those within the party have known for months though, which is that the Gregoire and coordinated campaigns are completely incompetent.

Why does it matter? It's just the primary. Would a warning to the Gregoire campaign that they need to do a better job really be a bad thing?

[bgwah]

It gets the Republicans excited and helps Rossi bring in out-of-state money (and makes in-state donors focus on the race more).

Maybe. Seems like the closeness from 2004 (not to mention the high name-recognition he already has from it) would already help Rossi out a lot in those areas--so much that I'm not sure there's much room for improvement. But I don't know...

Too bad this silly mail-voting will make it take forever (relatively speaking of course) to get results.

[bgwah]

So, how do you guys think Sam Reed will do in the general? I'm feeling fairly certain he'll hit 60%. 70% wouldn't really be out of the question, either.

[bgwah]

Early results map:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&off=5&elect=6&fips=53&f=0

[bgwah]

^ Yeah, winning the second, third, fourth, and fifth largest counties in the state (that she lost in 2004) isn't a bad sign---but who knows what will happen come November. We've never had a primary like this so we can't really draw any parallels. But if she wins Pierce and Snohomish in the general, she's almost definitely won the election.

In other news, incumbent Republican Glenn Anderson is narrowly behind his Democratic opponent for State Representative in the 5th legislative district (mine!). Anderson didn't even get a Democratic opponent in 2006. It would make me very happy if we finally had a Democratic legislator. We're pretty much the only triple Republican district left in suburban Seattle, I think--at least in King County. It's pretty awful knowing you're from the district that spawned Dino the Despicable.

[bgwah]

^ I'd say there's about a 90% chance Whitman County just messed up. Their elections are run by absolute retards.

[bgwah]

I was expecting McIntire to win, but I thought it would at least be relatively close... His nearly 30 point loss is very surprising.

[bgwah]

Whitman County has been fixed. Aiken is now getting 2%, with Rossi at 48 and Gregoire at 45. How the hell do the people running their elections let this sh*t slip by? There is little doubt in my mind that they have the worst elections department in the state. Probably also the most corrupt--but whatever.

Also interesting that a "No Party Preference" person got 10% for Insurance Commissioner.

Cheryl Crist actually came sort of close to making it to the general. It would've been funny if Western Washington's most Republican district had two Democrats in the general... Perhaps if there were just one more Republican running! Oh well.

Disappointing numbers for Burner.

[bgwah]

There isn't an option to upload SPI...

[bgwah]

Some interesting county results for Congressional races:

ADAMS COUNTY
75.59% McMorris Rodgers (R)
7.52% Erickson (R)
6.90% Mays (D)
5.72% Lampert (D)
2.62% Yearout (C)
1.66% (L)

COWLITZ COUNTY
52.44% Baird (D)
17.12% Crist (D)
15.60% Delavar (R)
14.84% Webb (R)

Basically, Cowlitz County is awesome and Adams is reminding us that nobody is f**king with their reputation as the worst county in Washington.


ALSO:
State Treasurer:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&off=8&elect=6&fips=53&f=0

[bgwah]

Dino the Despicable is now ahead in Cowlitz, Clark, Spokane, and Skamania.

[bgwah]

^ I guess so. Though Gregoire is still doing pretty well in Snohomish and Pierce. She also has a solid lead in Grays Harbor, which she narrowly lost in 2004. This makes me feel a little bit better about November. It would be very sad to see the Despicable One mercilessly rape and murder our state every day for four years.

Also, I made a map of the Congressional races. Red is Democrat/Green and blue is Republican/Constitution. Independents and Libertarians were excluded.



Reichert narrowly "won" the primary with 48%. Democrats combined beat the only Republican. Of course, this was the case in 2006 as well. Still, Darcy should probably do at least as well as she did in 2006 I think, if these primaries are any indicator... hard to tell...

[bgwah]

I'm definitely voting for McIntire in the general. Would've been nice to have Sohn, but McIntire will do...

[bgwah]

I'm definitely voting for McIntire in the general. Would've been nice to have Sohn, but McIntire will do...

What convinced you, the (D) next to his name, or the "Prefers Democratic Party" in the primary?

No, silly, you know me better than that. It's the fact that Martin has a "Prefers Republican Party" by his name and his Democratic opponent isn't Osgood-awful.

[bgwah]

Here are the current swing by county numbers in excel and map form.

[bgwah]

Geez, I thought people would think my swing data & map were interesting.

Also, if we adjust the turn-out numbers to account for the low turn-out in places like King County to resemble those from 2004, then Gregoire got about 52.5% to Rossi's 47.5%. Of course, that excludes that 8 or 9% of people who voted for the other random candidates. But who knows what the hell is going to happen with them...

[bgwah]

Skagit has fallen to the dark side.