Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[bgwah]

I'm fine with it in some cases... Seattle is a very Democratic city. It's about the size of a Congressional district. It makes sense having it be its own congressional district. I don't support splitting it up to favor my party.

[bgwah]

Alright, I've made a decision: I'll keep the red avatar until SOPA gets to Obama's desk. If he signs it, I'm going back to a green avatar!

[Seattle]

I'm fine with it in some cases... Seattle is a very Democratic city. It's about the size of a Congressional district. It makes sense having it be its own congressional district. I don't support splitting it up to favor my party.

Not to mention that now supposedly there is a stronger community of interest between S. Seattle and its southern suburbs than with the rest of Seattle, which is completely ridiculous.

[bgwah]

I'm fine with it in some cases... Seattle is a very Democratic city. It's about the size of a Congressional district. It makes sense having it be its own congressional district. I don't support splitting it up to favor my party.

Not to mention that now supposedly there is a stronger community of interest between S. Seattle and its southern suburbs than with the rest of Seattle, which is completely ridiculous.

It's complete non-sense. The Republicans have wisely used the minority issue to their advantage. You really do have to respect the political skills Gorton has shown, regardless of what you think of his politics.

I was really hoping the Eastside could mostly be united in the 1st district, so I'm pretty disappointed to see that we're not just being divided into two but three districts. Oh well.

[Frodo]

Now that we know what the districts look like on the congressional level, how does the legislature look?  Will it be more Democratic than with the old districts? 

[Alcon]

Marko Liias is ending his bid for congress after being districted from WA-1 to WA-7:

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[bgwah]

Now that we know what the districts look like on the congressional level, how does the legislature look?  Will it be more Democratic than with the old districts? 

No.

[bgwah]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2016939802__bill_finkbeiner_a_former.html

Missed that piece of news. Another "moderate" Republican challenger for Owen.

[redcommander]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2016939802__bill_finkbeiner_a_former.html

Missed that piece of news. Another "moderate" Republican challenger for Owen.

Isn't he to the left of Owen? If I remember correctly Owen did afterall endorse "Independent" Susan Hutchison for King County Executive.

[bgwah]

To the left on social issues, probably.

[CT27]

What district are Edmonds and Shoreline going to be in?  I can't really see on the map.

[bgwah]

What district are Edmonds and Shoreline going to be in?  I can't really see on the map.

They're in the 7th now.

[bgwah]

Glenn Anderson is running for Lt. Governor, too? Wow, I'm really out of the loop on this race.

[Meeker]

Glenn Anderson is running for Lt. Governor, too? Wow, I'm really out of the loop on this race.

Haha, really? I hadn't heard that either. Hilarious.

[greenforest32]

And why does she seem so hesitant to just flat out say she supports gay marriage?
It's not like it would hurt her to openly support it.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2017151965_sources_say_gregoire_will_publ.html

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This update is probably as surprising as when Inslee announced he was running for Governor

[CultureKing]

So what are we going to give as the over-under odds for gay marriage in Washington in 2012?

I'm think 60-40 against becoming law this year (and yes that's a random number more or less).

[greenforest32]

http://publicola.com/2012/01/04/latest-poll-voters-still-for-legalizing-pot-but-support-drops/

[bgwah]

The July number did seem way too high. Still disappointing.

[Alcon]

I got to be at the press conference.  Gregoire is a pretty personable speaker when she starts talking about herself. I think the Senate will be tough to crack, but otherwise I think things are lined up pretty well.

[CultureKing]

I got to be at the press conference.  Gregoire is a pretty personable speaker when she starts talking about herself. I think the Senate will be tough to crack, but otherwise I think things are lined up pretty well.

Well I am sure my senator (Sheldon) will be of no help, so that's -1 right there.

[Meeker]

I got to be at the press conference.  Gregoire is a pretty personable speaker when she starts talking about herself. I think the Senate will be tough to crack, but otherwise I think things are lined up pretty well.

Well I am sure my senator (Sheldon) will be of no help, so that's -1 right there.

Hargrove will probably be a "No" as well. That puts us down to 25... if we lose one more then it's dead.

[Seattle]

I'd imagine another member who would normally not vote for it, Kastama, will since he's running for Sos.

What about Hobbs, Kilmer, and Hatfield?
I have no clue what their stance is on this... but two are in swing districts and the other is in logging country.

[ottermax]

For Senate Bill 5688 in 2009 on Domestic Partnerships, the Senate voted 30-18-1 for the bill.

3 Republicans crossed over and voted for the bill:
Brandland - 42 (retired)
Pflug - 5
King - 14

4 Democrats crossed over and voted against the bill:
Hargrove - 24
Hatfield - 19
Sheldon - 35
Shin - 21

The first three democrats are all from the Coast/Olympic Peninsula. Shin is Korean so not entirely surprising that he voted against it, although I don't think his district voted against it.

King is the only who who really surprises me, no idea why he voted yes.

I don't know who switched after the last election, but I know that Baumgartner has replaced Marr likely losing that vote. Fain replaced Kauffman in 47, and also seems like a lost cause.
Jarrett has been replaced by Litzow, but 41 is based in Mercer Island and Bellevue, so he would be foolish to be against same-sex marriage. Likewise Oemig was replaced by Hill, but 45 is similarly socially liberal. Maralyn Chase, Steve Conway supported it as a rep.

Kastama, Kilmer, and Hobbs all supported domestic partnerships, but marriage might be different.

Anyways from my count it looks like passage is dependent on getting those Republicans like Pflug and King to continue their support and pull in Litzow, Hill, and possibly Baumgartner or Fain since other Democrats might not support it. It really depends on those Republicans and maybe Shin or another Democrat will switch his original support, but it seems unlikely despite their constituents' views.

 

[Alcon]

I'm pretty sure solid "No"s are Jim Hargrove (D-Hoquiam), Brian Hatfield (D-Raymond), Tim Sheldon (D-Potlatch), and maybe Paull Shin (D-Edmonds).  I'm pretty sure Rodney Tom (D-Medina) is for it, and I'm pretty sure at least one of the below Republicans is privately committed.

Curtis King has a gay...something.  Son maybe?  Don't know.

Anyway, here are the swing votes as I can tell so far:

Tracey Eide (D-Federal Way)
Joe Fain (R-Auburn)
Andy Hill (R-Redmond)
Steve Hobbs (D-Lake Stevens)
Mary Margaret Haugen (D-Camano Island)
Jim Kastama (D-Puyallup)
Curtis King (R-Yakima)
Steve Litzow (R-Mercer Island)
Cheryl Pflug (R-Maple Valley) [although probably not.]

[bgwah]

Rodney Tom is a Democrat.