Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[bgwah]

16th Rep 2: Terry Nealey (American Heritage)
 - Good chance Ds don't run anyone here and Nealey gets to the general.

Eh? Terry Nealey is the incumbent Republican and Sam Reed's site doesn't list him having an opponent.

Cheryl Pflug filed for re-election using "Independent Gop" (sic)

I noticed that in January... I thought I posted about it but I guess not.

The Democrats are also running their first serious candidate in the 5th in eight years. Of course it's probably more Republican now, go figure. lol. Still, if Pflug didn't make the general and it ended up being Toft vs Mullet, the Democrats might be able to pick up the seat in an upset like they did in 1992. I'm just being optimistic, though.

I never thought I'd see the day where a 30-year-old liberal Democrat would run unopposed for an open leg seat in Bellevue.

I hadn't seen that yet! Hopefully we'll get rid of Litzow, too, while we're at it.

[bgwah]

Also, am I missing something here or... does Zarelli retiring leave no Republican running for his seat? That's a strong R seat, isn't it?

I'm confused.

[Meeker]

Candidates for legislative districts entirely within a county file with the county auditors and not the Secretary of State. Sam Reed's site is missing some of those legislative candidates (for instance, State Representative Ann Rivers is running for Zarelli's seat).

[bgwah]

Oh, that makes sense. I saw her name in the article I read but didn't see her listed.

Is there a complete list of filed candidates anywhere?

[bgwah]

^ Also looks like the Democrat in Bellevue Alcon mentioned does indeed have a Republican opponent, if you look at the King County Elections website.

Clibborn doesn't seem to have an opponent, though. But I think that may have happened before.

[Meeker]

I think Sam Reed's website will be updated with everything by Wednesday.

[Meeker]

Gregoire just appointed Cheryl Pflug to some government board; she's withdrawn from the race.

[bgwah]

Gregoire just appointed Cheryl Pflug to some government board; she's withdrawn from the race.

That's too bad. Every time there's a Republican I start to like...

How safe is it to assume she was chased out by the theocratic bigots?

[bgwah]

Ernest Huber has a ton of signs in Sammamish and Issaquah. Not that I think he'll beat Reichert or anything, but it kind of amuses me.

[Meeker]

Tim Eyman's 2/3 requirement for a tax increase was declared unconstitutional by a King County Superior Court today. It'll be appealed of course and Eyman will probably still continue to place it on the ballot.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Tim Eyman's 2/3 requirement for a tax increase was declared unconstitutional by a King County Superior Court today. It'll be appealed of course and Eyman will probably still continue to place it on the ballot.

[Seattle]

Tim Eyman's 2/3 requirement for a tax increase was declared unconstitutional by a King County Superior Court today. It'll be appealed of course and Eyman will probably still continue to place it on the ballot.

X100

Awesome news!

[Alcon]

Strategies 360 poll
May 22-24
500 LV's

Poll sample D39%, R34%, I19% (30-23-24 before leaners)

Approval
Murray: 52-33 (+19)
McKenna: 37-19 (+18)
Cantwell: 48-30 (+18)
Inslee: 29-17 (+12)
Obama: 54-43 (+11)
Baumgartner: 6-5 (+1)
Gregoire: 44-44 (tie)
Romney: 39-47 (-8)
Democrats in Congress: 39-49 (-10)
Republicans in Congress: 35-55 (-20)
U.S. Congress: 26-61 (-35)

U.S. President (Obama +11)
Obama 51%
Romney 40%

U.S. Congress Generic (Democrat +3)
Democratic 44%
Republican 41%

Governor (McKenna +4)
Inslee 39%
McKenna 43%

Gay marriage (Legal +21)
Legal 54%
Illegal 33%

Marijuana legalization (Tie)
Legal 43%
Illegal 43%

Charter schools (Support +26)
Support 51%
Oppose 25%

Education Trust Fund (Support +22)
Support 57%
Oppose 35%

More http://www.strategies360.com/images/stories/buzz/s360_may2012_wastatetoplines.pdf

[The Mikado]

Marijuana legalization (Tie)
Legal 43%
Illegal 43%

Would I be correct in assuming that legalization needs to poll significantly higher than 43% in order to have a real chance on election day?  This seems like one of those things that the undecideds would lean illegal.

[Meeker]

WA-01 poll from King5/SurveyUSA

Koster - R: 46%
Burner - D: 19%
Ruderman - D: 6%
DelBene - D: 4%
Hobbs - D: 4%
Ishmael - I: 4%
Rauniyar - D: 1%

Burner does the best in the head-to-heads with Koster, losing 48-39. Ruderman and DelBene are behind him 49-32, Hobbs 47-31 and Rauniyar 50-28.

There's some weirdness in it though; it has Romney leading Obama 45-44 in the district and McKenna crushing Inslee 52-38. The primary electorate is going to be a older/more conservative than the general of course but that still seems a few points too red.

[bgwah]

Those are some very depressing numbers. I'm not surprised Burner is the top Democrat but 3x the runner-up? I just can't believe we're going to lose this seat. Sigh.

[ottermax]

Those are some very depressing numbers. I'm not surprised Burner is the top Democrat but 3x the runner-up? I just can't believe we're going to lose this seat. Sigh.

Not to mention that it's completely Democrats' fault. Just so we could have a minority-majority seat that will be represented by a White guy for 10 years...

It's sad that WA will have an even delegation for the next decade because of redistricting (except in a Democratic wave year).

[Meeker]

I don't think all hope is lost. The sample appears a little too Republican (Romney ahead 45-44 in a district that went 57% for Obama in 2008?) and the general election campaign hasn't really started. Once the Democrats unify and start hammering Koster for being the right-wing nut he is I suspect our numbers will improve no matter who the nominee is. It'll still be close in the end of course; it's a swing district.

And on the nomination front, DelBene is going to start carpet bombing the airwaves and mailboxes pretty soon. I think in the end it'll be pretty close between them (not really seeing too viable of a pathway for Ruderman unless Burner and Delbene go nuclear on each other).

[bgwah]

Koster would probably be a one-termer if he won, but who knows, the Democrats might try Burner for a fourth time...

[Meeker]

The Washington State Democrats have nominated Kathleen Drew for Secretary of State and Craig Pridemore for State Auditor. No one received enough votes to get the nomination in the 1st CD but Burner came the closest with 39 followed by Ruderman with 29, Delbene with 15, "No Endorsement" with 6, Rauniyar with 5 and Hobbs with 1 (lol). A candidate needed 48 votes to win the nomination.

On the Republican side Bill Finkbeiner was nominated for Lt. Governor (Glenn Anderson wasn't even allowed to speak). Brad Owen was nowhere to be seen at the Democratic convention and was never mentioned from the podium. I think he might be in real trouble, especially if McKenna trounces Inslee.

[Frodo]

How is it looking at the state legislative level?  Will Democrats regain the ground they lost in 2010 in both chambers? 

[Meeker]

State Senate situation is likely to worsen, could even get to 25-24 with Tim Sheldon and Jim Hargrove holding the balance of power. State House will probably remain about the same; we have a few pick-up opportunities (6th, 25th, 47th, maybe the 10th and the 17th) but also some potential losses (17th, 26th, 28th, 30th, 44th).

[bgwah]

So a Republican Governor, State Senate, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, and 5-5 split Congressional delegate is looking possible. Ugh.

[Meeker]

Don't forget the Republican Secretary of State

[bgwah]

Don't forget the Republican Secretary of State

It's just upsetting to sit back and see it all happening.