Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[bgwah]

The odd Inslee results in SW Washington have a very simple explanation: They didn't run ads in the Portland media market. None of those counties were a part of the ad blitz that the rest of the state has been experiencing.

 

Yeah, we've seen this before. Just look at the Republican primary from 2004 where Rossi did poorly in the same counties. Most of them seemed to flow to Rossi in the general... I don't know how many of Hill's voters will flow to Inslee, though.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=53&year=2004&f=0&off=5&elect=2

[RI]

I posted this in another thread, but I think it's relevant (because it's about Washington of course, and it's good news):

I work with a lot of local economic indicators in my research internship, and I'm seeing a lot of positive signs [in the housing market] here in Washington as well. The latest housing data that we work with came out today, and it looks like housing prices bottomed during the first quarter of this year statewide and in most major cities. Second quarter numbers are pretty uniformly on the upswing. Statewide housing worth had its largest single quarter increase in at least a decade.

[RI]

With the latest update, Island County is now in McKenna's column.

[greenforest32]

Things looking up from June?

So a Republican Governor, State Senate, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, and 5-5 split Congressional delegate is looking possible. Ugh.

Don't forget the Republican Secretary of State

[bgwah]

Things looking up from June?

So a Republican Governor, State Senate, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, and 5-5 split Congressional delegate is looking possible. Ugh.

Don't forget the Republican Secretary of State

I'm feeling better about it. Of course, the Republicans did pretty well in the one race I didn't mention, that for State Auditor. Troy Kelley (the Democrat) will at least be running from our biggest swing county (Pierce).


Why can't all counties use the newer SoS-hosted site that has precinct results?

[Meeker]

There was a definite Republican trend to the ballots that were added in today. Be ready for Dems statewide to lose a few points as more come in...

[All Along The Watchtower]

I want to know how my previous hometown of Walla Walla voted.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I want to know how my previous hometown of Walla Walla voted.

You lived in Walla Walla?    Cool. 

[All Along The Watchtower]

I want to know how my previous hometown of Walla Walla voted.

You lived in Walla Walla?    Cool. 

When I was really young, yeah. Born in Sacramento, moved there when I was less than a year old, moved back to CA (Bay Area) when I was 5.

[bgwah]

There was a definite Republican trend to the ballots that were added in today. Be ready for Dems statewide to lose a few points as more come in...

Any reason why? King seems to be keeping up with counting a bit more than it usually does, which would presumably be part of it. (Though it looks like Inslee's percent stayed the same - 46.77% yesterday and 46.77% tonight. McKenna may have gone up a little bit, but I don't remember what he originally got.).

[Ogre Mage]

lol at Michael Baumgartner, losing his home county (Spokane) to Sen. Cantwell.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Is it just me, or are Democrats slipping in Whitman?

[RI]

Is it just me, or are Democrats slipping in Whitman?

Democrats typically do better there in the general than in the primary. I think it's because WSU is on break during the primary, though I could be wrong.

[bgwah]

In addition to poor student turnout for primaries, made worse due to it being summer, Whitman has never been very democratic. It voted D by modest margins in landslide years like 06 and 08. I expect it to be a McKenna/Cantwell county in November. Swing for President.

[Torie]

Sean Trende has turned his gaze upon your fair state. Nothing that arresting in it this time however, but for those of you who like numbers, numbers and more numbers ...

[bgwah]

Here's a map comparing Murray 2010 (46.04%) and Inslee 2012 (46.77%).



Inslee got a bump in his old 1990s 4th CD, especially in Yakima, but not so much in his 2000s 1st CD.

Murray did better in SW WA, where Rob Hill took around 1/3 of the Democratic vote from Inslee...?

1990s Congressional map, for comparison:

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

The 3rd district primary map is very stereotypical:


Green - Marcus Riccelli
Red - Bob Apple
Yellow - Jon Snyder
Blue - Tim Benn

[Fuzzybigfoot]

The 3rd district primary map is very stereotypical:


Green - Marcus Riccelli
Red - Bob Apple
Yellow - Jon Snyder
Blue - Tim Benn

Cool! 

[Alcon]

Can you say a little more about that?  I know Marcus is a pretty progressive guy, and a former Young Democrats high muckamuck, and Apple is a conservative Dem on City Council...but what about Jon Snyder?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Can you say a little more about that?  I know Marcus is a pretty progressive guy, and a former Young Democrats high muckamuck, and Apple is a conservative Dem on City Council...but what about Jon Snyder?

Jon Snyder is a stereotypical crunchy progressive: he went to Evergreen, is a strong advocate of gay rights (his mom is lesbian), and was the chair of a local progressive radio station. If you check his website you'll know what I mean: everything about him is a latte liberal stereotype. He only performed well in the south hill and around the core of the city. Bob Apple's pattern of support works the same way: he only performed well in blue collar Spokane but outside of his core, he did very poorly. I've noticed that Apple's signs were nearly exclusively located in the most depressed area of Spokane.

Riccelli reminds me of Josh Mandel: he sounds and looks far younger than he is.

[CultureKing]

Wow... the Republican in that race (that managed to advance) is going to get OWNED.

[Alcon]

Cool, thanks.  Obviously some Republican cross-over there; I wonder where it went.  And you're right, Marcus is pretty young-looking and I didn't realize he was 34.

I don't know much about Spokane politics, but the winning Republican (Tim Benn) comes across as an idiot.  The other Republican, Morgan Oyler, actually seems intelligent enough, although I'm sure his libertarian leans sunk him with Spokane Republicans.

Oh, hey RealisticIdealist: Did you expect this Tom Riggs guy to pull 49.4% in the 10th?  People around here didn't have that race on their radar.  (also, looks like Haugen's in serious trouble this year)

[RI]

Oh, hey RealisticIdealist: Did you expect this Tom Riggs guy to pull 49.4% in the 10th?  People around here didn't have that race on their radar.  (also, looks like Haugen's in serious trouble this year)

I can't explain it. I did not expect him to do so well at all. In fact, I think I encouraged my dad (we generally talk about these things) to vote for Hayes as I assumed he'd win, and Hayes had a much stronger resume. I mean, it was a park ranger going against a veteran high-ranking sheriff. I guess Riggs is also the president of the Island County Chamber of Commerce, but he didn't advertise that too much. They were both from Camano, but Riggs is winning Island County despite the naval base. Looking at the precinct results, Riggs won both Camano and Whidbey, with 50.3% and 50.9% respectively, and Island is where most of the votes came from, which is why it was close despite losing both Snohomish and Skagit. I wouldn't sleep on Riggs winning in November; he'll have at least two more votes.

As for Haugen, yeah, I don't expect her to win. Bailey's pretty popular around here, especially in Snohomish. The race could tighten a bit in November, but a five-plus point margin is going to be hard to erase.

[Meeker]

FWIW, the Republicans threw down about 25k in mailers in the Haugen/Bailey race before the primary; the Democrats spent nothing. I think this is Bailey's high-water mark.

They also spent 20k on cable ads against Dawn Morrell and 25k on cable ads against Eric Choiniere. Explains in part their poor showing in part (I anticipate Morrell can make it closer come November; unsure about Choiniere).

[Ogre Mage]

Floyd McKay at Crosscut has a good analysis of the race in WA-1.

http://crosscut.com/2012/08/07/elections/109914/1st-district-fight-delbene-and-koster-finish/

If this were WA-4 or WA-5 we'd probably have to accept a Congresscritter as far to the right as Koster.  But in a swing district like WA-1 there's no reason to.

Fortunately, in DelBene I think we have a candidate with a good chance to win.