Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Alcon]

I think Driscoll is actually trying, because he can afford to try for no particular reason.

[bgwah]

Will the cop killer ads defeat Ferguson?

[Alcon]

New SUSA, conducted 10/15

Inslee 47% (-1)
McKenna 44% (+2)

Obama 54% (-2)
Romney 40% (+4)

Haven't seen results from the other issues, if they were polled

[Holmes]

WA-03

Herrera Beutler
Total raised: $1,568,000
Total spent: $1,208,000
CoH: $441,000

Haugen
Total raised: $0
Total spent: $0
CoH: $0

[Alcon]

Rasmussen, 10/13

Obama 55% (+3)
Romney 42% (+1)

Inslee 47% (+1)
McKenna 45% (nc)

[Fuzzybigfoot]

The folks in the safe seats raise money to send to the DCCC/NRCC who then send it to competitive districts.

Why not send them directly to the candidates themselves? 

[Meeker]

The folks in the safe seats raise money to send to the DCCC/NRCC who then send it to competitive districts.

Why not send them directly to the candidates themselves? 

They do that too, but they're allowed to give much more money to the DCCC/NRCC than they can to individual candidate committees, so the bulk tends to go there.

[Meeker]

PPP, October 15-16

Obama: 50%
Romney: 45%

(Side note: ?!?!)

Inslee: 48%
McKenna: 42%

[Alcon]

yeah, uh...

[Seattle]

Yeah, Inslee is leading more than Obama, sure.

How in the world did they come up with those numbers?

[Fuzzybigfoot]

The folks in the safe seats raise money to send to the DCCC/NRCC who then send it to competitive districts.

Why not send them directly to the candidates themselves? 

They do that too, but they're allowed to give much more money to the DCCC/NRCC than they can to individual candidate committees, so the bulk tends to go there.

Oh, ok.  Thanks!

[bgwah]

lol.

[Alcon]

University of Washington Poll ("Washington Poll") today

GET EXCITED FOR A UNI POLL

[bgwah]

^ They're usually pretty good.

Also, if this thread is locked, I will cry. This thread is the only thing worth coming to on this forum anymore.

[Seattle]

^ They're usually pretty good.

Also, if this thread is locked, I will cry. This thread is the only thing worth coming to on this forum anymore.

Can't we get some sort of exemption?

[Alcon]

Washington Poll: Pretty much as expected, although weaker numbers for charter schools and pot, and great numbers for Cantwell and gay marriage.  Although it also notes a huge social desirability effect going on for gay marriage, and does an analysis that results in a 6-point margin.

http://www.washingtonpoll.org/results/kcts9_full_wave1.pdf

President
Obama 52%
Romney 41%

Governor
Inslee 48%
McKenna 45%

U.S. Senate
Cantwell 58%
Baumgartner 35%

I-1185 (Eyman)
Yes 54%
No 31%

I-1240 (Charter Schools)
Yes 48%
No 39%

Referendum 74 (Same-sex marriage)
Yes 56%
No 36%

I-502 (Marijuana legalization)
Yes 51%
No 41%

[Alcon]

Likely voters only:

President
Obama 52%
Romney 43%

Governor
Inslee 47%
McKenna 46%

U.S. Senate
Cantwell 58%
Baumgartner 35%

I-1185 (Eyman)
Yes 54%
No 31%

I-1240 (Charter Schools)
Yes 49%
No 40%

Referendum 74 (Same-sex marriage)
Yes 54%
No 38%

I-502 (Marijuana legalization)
Yes 47%
No 40%

Referendum 74 with some sort of fancy regression analysis to adjust for respondent discomfort and consistency
Approve 53%
Reject 47%

[Meeker]

Second part of that SurveyUSA poll

Attorney General
Ferguson: 40%
Dunn: 38%

R-74
Approve: 54%
Reject: 41%

I-502
Yes: 55%
No: 36%

I-1240
Yes: 54%
No: 39%

I-1185
Yes: 54%
No: 22%

[bgwah]

So once again, sleazy October ads will give us some Eastside county councilman douche for AG. Ugh.

[LastVoter]

Charter schools might fail...

[Fuzzybigfoot]

^ They're usually pretty good.

Also, if this thread is locked, I will cry. This thread is the only thing worth coming to on this forum anymore.

[RI]

Charter schools might fail...

Marijuana is in more danger than charter schools from those likely voter numbers. I wouldn't surprise me if they both failed, tbh.

[ElectionAtlas]

Locked due to number of replies slowing down forum.  Feel free to start new thread.
I've reopened this for now from request.  Please lock after election.
Thanks,
Dave

[bgwah]

Locked due to number of replies slowing down forum.  Feel free to start new thread.
I've reopened this for now from request.  Please lock after election.
Thanks,
Dave

Thanks for keeping it open for now.

[Frodo]

It's distressing that a state as heavily Democratic as Washington is at the national level can be so evenly divided between conservatives (of both parties) and liberal Democrats at the state level:

State Senate may be beyond GOP's grasp

By Keith Ervin
Seattle Times staff reporter

For the Republican Party, control of the state Senate is tantalizingly close.

The GOP just has to pick up three seats, one a gimme, the other two currently held by Democratic incumbents who won less than half the vote in the primary.

(...)

Other observers expect reality will lie somewhere between the optimistic predictions of the two parties' leaders, with the GOP likely achieving a net gain of one seat.

Former state Republican Party Chairman Chris Vance believes a one-seat gain for Republicans would mean a Senate that Democrats couldn't easily control. "Philosophically, the Senate is going to be very conservative. It's going to be very hard for the Democrats to hold on to it."