Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[bgwah]

Any chance the legislature changes their mind before 2014?

Our law mandates bipartisan redistricting that is only done once every ten years.

[Alcon]

Turnout may be part of it, but there was a uniform swing across the county against Obama that was more pronounced than most areas.  Pullman has only declined from 50% to 46% of Whitman County's turnout -- although that does move the numbers some, considering how polarized the county is.

[bgwah]

Here are some student-dominated precincts:
Pullman 131: 80 votes in 2008 down to 19 in 2012
Pullman 132: 70 to 14
Pullman 133: 34 to 13
Pullman 134: 156 to 61

Obviously more ballots will be counted, but it seems likely that turnout is greatly down among students. And those first three precincts are pretty much exclusively students. I bet there are lots of precincts where students went from being 1/2 the vote to 1/4, 1/3 to 1/6, etc. The more suburban parts of Pullman are a lot more conservative, and I doubt their turnout decreased as much.

WSU is also the kind of school where people voted for Obama because it was cool to do so in 2008. It's never been a particularly liberal school and is simply returning to its standard voting habits.

[Meeker]

As has been stated in the thread, Inslee will obviously win (McKenna is in denial). Looks like Wyman will win by 20,000-25,000 votes (about 50.40%). Frustrating to be so close to a clean sweep and not get it but I guess we shouldn't be greedy.

I'm very doubtful Probst wins in the 17th, so we picked up the 5th and lost the 10th and the 25th for a Senate balance of 26-23. Not a particularly happy place to be in given that that majority is propped up by Tim Sheldon, Rodney Tom and Jim Hargrove, but I guess it's better than outright Republican control.

State House results were kind of weird IMO. Lost seats in the 17th, 28th, 30th and 35th but then gained the other seat in the 30th along with a seat in the 25th. There's a Republican-held seat in the 47th that's close but the trend doesn't look promising. Net result is 54-45 Dem control which frankly isn't that great...

[Jackson]

Maybe McKenna had coattails?

[RI]

I voted for Wyman for the record. She seemed to be much less political than Drew, and she talked a lot about digitizing records, which being an election data interested person was the primary issue I cared about in the SoS race. The current website is rather poorly designed.

[Meeker]

Two incumbent Republican legislators were defeated in intra-party contests: State Representative Mike Armstrong of Wenatchee and State Senator Dan Swecker of Rochester.

[bgwah]

Two incumbent Republican legislators were defeated in intra-party contests: State Representative Mike Armstrong of Wenatchee and State Senator Dan Swecker of Rochester.

Do we know why? Did they lose to more conservative Republicans or did the top 2 system allow Democrats to replace them with someone more moderate?

[Meeker]

Two incumbent Republican legislators were defeated in intra-party contests: State Representative Mike Armstrong of Wenatchee and State Senator Dan Swecker of Rochester.

Do we know why? Did they lose to more conservative Republicans or did the top 2 system allow Democrats to replace them with someone more moderate?

Not sure. Armstrong had a close races in 2010 as well but he outraised his opponent, wasn't scandal plagued and his district didn't change much this year. Swecker had a lot of new territory added to his district but similarly had no scandal and outraised his opponent.

Perhaps Ds in the district chose to vote for the outsider Republican instead the Republican incumbent they've grown to dislike?

[Alcon]

About 25% of the vote is outstanding, including a little more in King County, but it's really impossible to see Drew winning at this point.  Her later-wave ballot performances have been pretty mediocre, and 61% is just not enough in King County.  She should lose by about 1-1.5 points.  Charter schools are pretty much a lock at this point too; looking like 1.5-2 points there.

The weirdly strong late-ballot showings for R-74 continue.  The Election Night batch for Pacific County was 46% Approve and today's was 56% Approve.  Otherwise things are pretty static.

[Alcon]

The second big Whitman batch was more liberal -- a narrow 48.2%-47.6% Romney win for Prez and 53.0% on R-74.  That put the Presidential race a lot closer (50-47) and R-74 is now down by only 9 votes.  It looks to me like late ballots were unusually Pullman-heavy.

R-74 is also now up to 49.3%.  My spreadsheet now estimates that R-74 will only under-perform R-71 by 0.4%, and that figure has been declining pretty steadily as more returns have been released.  There is now an outside chance that R-74 may do better than R-71, if King County returns start getting more friendly.

[Meeker]

We pulled ahead in the 17th LD Senate and House race today, much to my surprise. Lead in the Senate race is 16 votes; 81 in the House race. Both within the margin of recount.

[Ogre Mage]

McKenna concedes; Inslee to be governor.

http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2019648697_govrace10m.html

[bgwah]

Looks like Obama is now leading in Clallam.

[Alcon]

With the latest update, Adams County has joined the short list of Obama-swinging counties.

Neighboring Lincoln now has the most anti-Obama swing in the state, at 11.44%.

[Seattle]

I think it's interesting that Obama lost Wahkiakum, but the county barely swung against him. I guess it's possible he could still win it, Romney leads by 24 votes.

[bgwah]

With the latest update, Adams County has joined the short list of Obama-swinging counties.

Neighboring Lincoln now has the most anti-Obama swing in the state, at 11.44%.

I have a feeling it's only just the beginning of Adams' swings to the Democrats.

[Meeker]

I want King County precinct results

[bgwah]

^Well, they've released their election night abstract: http://your2.kingcounty.gov/elections/2012nov-general/results/ElectionNightFinalAbstract.pdf

I made some quick maps:

[bgwah]

So could we actually end up with 27-22 again in 2014? I looked through the seats up. The only obvious targets I noticed would be Kilmer's seat for Republicans and Hill's for Democrats. The Republicans might also try for Hobbs' seat I guess, but if he survived 2010 I'm inclined to think he's favored.

[Seattle]

Here are some student-dominated precincts:
Pullman 131: 80 votes in 2008 down to 19 in 2012
Pullman 132: 70 to 14
Pullman 133: 34 to 13
Pullman 134: 156 to 61

Obviously more ballots will be counted, but it seems likely that turnout is greatly down among students. And those first three precincts are pretty much exclusively students. I bet there are lots of precincts where students went from being 1/2 the vote to 1/4, 1/3 to 1/6, etc. The more suburban parts of Pullman are a lot more conservative, and I doubt their turnout decreased as much.

WSU is also the kind of school where people voted for Obama because it was cool to do so in 2008. It's never been a particularly liberal school and is simply returning to its standard voting habits.

Don't students vote in their home county? When I was going to UW I never bothered to change my voter registration, I just had my parents forward me my ballot.

Almost everyone I know at the UW seems to have moved there registration from home to the UW. I imagine it's similar at WSU.

[Meeker]

Here are some student-dominated precincts:
Pullman 131: 80 votes in 2008 down to 19 in 2012
Pullman 132: 70 to 14
Pullman 133: 34 to 13
Pullman 134: 156 to 61

Obviously more ballots will be counted, but it seems likely that turnout is greatly down among students. And those first three precincts are pretty much exclusively students. I bet there are lots of precincts where students went from being 1/2 the vote to 1/4, 1/3 to 1/6, etc. The more suburban parts of Pullman are a lot more conservative, and I doubt their turnout decreased as much.

WSU is also the kind of school where people voted for Obama because it was cool to do so in 2008. It's never been a particularly liberal school and is simply returning to its standard voting habits.

Don't students vote in their home county? When I was going to UW I never bothered to change my voter registration, I just had my parents forward me my ballot.

It varies. If your parents never encouraged you to register to vote or don't even vote themselves then it's entirely possible you would never even register until you get to college.

[Meeker]

So could we actually end up with 27-22 again in 2014? I looked through the seats up. The only obvious targets I noticed would be Kilmer's seat for Republicans and Hill's for Democrats. The Republicans might also try for Hobbs' seat I guess, but if he survived 2010 I'm inclined to think he's favored.

We will probably lose Kilmer's seat in the 2013 special election if State Rep. Jan Angel runs. She is very popular in the 26th.

The obvious target in 2014 is Hill but they'll also make a go at Joe Fain in the 47th I suspect. Baumgartner could be in danger in the 6th if Chris Marr makes a comback bid.

Pam Roach is also up in 2014 but I feel about her the same way I do about Michele Bachmann - controversial enough to make it close but still tantalizingly out of reach.

[Alcon]

I think the vast majority register at home and may update their mailing address, but keep their physical address at home.  My bet is that turnout in college precincts is heavily dependent on whether there was a voter registration drive that encouraged people to register with a campus address versus their home address.

Also, college student ballots are being counted disproportionately in these late batches, for whatever reason.  WSU and WWU precincts both have much, much better turnout than the dire numbers in the first batches.

[bgwah]

So could we actually end up with 27-22 again in 2014? I looked through the seats up. The only obvious targets I noticed would be Kilmer's seat for Republicans and Hill's for Democrats. The Republicans might also try for Hobbs' seat I guess, but if he survived 2010 I'm inclined to think he's favored.

We will probably lose Kilmer's seat in the 2013 special election if State Rep. Jan Angel runs. She is very popular in the 26th.

The obvious target in 2014 is Hill but they'll also make a go at Joe Fain in the 47th I suspect. Baumgartner could be in danger in the 6th if Chris Marr makes a comback bid.

Pam Roach is also up in 2014 but I feel about her the same way I do about Michele Bachmann - controversial enough to make it close but still tantalizingly out of reach.

I thought about mentioning her, but she really does live up to her name and always survives.

I'm sure there's data out there tells us how much more Democratic and Republican each district got after redistricting, but I don't know where it is.