Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Sbane]

The top two has it's good and bad sides. National Democrats lost out on a congressional seat when two Republicans qualified to be on the November ballot. It is a swing seat, to be fair, but considering the Republican slaughter in the state this year, that seat would have likely gone to the Democrats. On the other hand, maybe we can get an independent who will deal only with the budget and ignore social issues on the ballot for governor. Doesn't matter if their opponent is Democrat or Republican, I would vote for an independent of that mold.

[smoltchanov]

The top two has it's good and bad sides. National Democrats lost out on a congressional seat when two Republicans qualified to be on the November ballot. It is a swing seat, to be fair, but considering the Republican slaughter in the state this year, that seat would have likely gone to the Democrats. On the other hand, maybe we can get an independent who will deal only with the budget and ignore social issues on the ballot for governor. Doesn't matter if their opponent is Democrat or Republican, I would vote for an independent of that mold.

Me too)))

[Meeker]

This coalition Senate majority is looking more and more like a done deal. Hewitt announced yesterday that he's declining to run for Senate Republican leader. In his statement he praised the type of arrangement that would lead to Tom becoming Majority Leader: http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/2012/11/16/mike-hewitt-wont-lead-senate-republicans/

Hewitt also gave a quote where he says Tom considered becoming Ways and Means Chair or Majority Leader and decided he'd prefer Majority Leader: http://www.thenewstribune.com/2012/11/17/2370692/hewitt-wont-lead-gops-senators.html

Meanwhile, Benton leads by 96 votes after Friday's count with 2300 ballots remaining countywide. Stonier leads by 100 in the House race.

[smoltchanov]

This coalition Senate majority is looking more and more like a done deal. Hewitt announced yesterday that he's declining to run for Senate Republican leader. In his statement he praised the type of arrangement that would lead to Tom becoming Majority Leader: http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/2012/11/16/mike-hewitt-wont-lead-senate-republicans/

Hewitt also gave a quote where he says Tom considered becoming Ways and Means Chair or Majority Leader and decided he'd prefer Majority Leader: http://www.thenewstribune.com/2012/11/17/2370692/hewitt-wont-lead-gops-senators.html

Meanwhile, Benton leads by 96 votes after Friday's count with 2300 ballots remaining countywide. Stonier leads by 100 in the House race.

Well, that happened in Tennessee few years ago, when Democrats found a Republican ready to buck his party on some issues and made him speaker. In California in Willie Brown time. Why not vice versa??? It's politics after all - personal interests will always trump "party interests", and that's normal)))

[Seattle]

Hohoho....
Over a thousand uncounted ballots have been found in Clark County... Could Probst pull it off?
http://www.komonews.com/news/local/Clark-County-finds-more-than-1000-uncounted-votes-179816921.html

[Alcon]

It's unlikely, but if it does happen, I can only imagine the kvetching (which will probably conveniently ignore that Clark County's Auditor, Greg Kimsey, is a Republican.)

[Meeker]

I guess this gives Probst a better shot since there are now more ballots that could allow him to make up the difference, but there's nothing about these ballots specifically that seems like they should help him.

[bgwah]

By my calculation, this would mean there are about 711 ballots left in the 17th, and Probst would need to win them 406-305 (57-43) to take a one vote lead.

It's unlikely, but if it does happen, I can only imagine the kvetching (which will probably conveniently ignore that Clark County's Auditor, Greg Kimsey, is a Republican.)

Maybe he's trying to steal the house race...

[Alcon]

R-74 Pierce County



Blow-up of the Tacoma area

[they don't love you like i love you]

What's that red bit in Tacoma near all the dark green ones?

[Seattle]

Awesome maps! I wish I had the skills to make those...

It looks like the Kitsap portion of Pierce voted yes on R74, which surprises me...

[Meeker]

I'm pretty surprised University Place voted in favor. I figured the Mormon presence would kill it there.

[Meeker]

Extra ballots in Clark look to have been of no help; Probst behind by 105 after today's count. Stonier leads by 120. 1350 ballots left countywide.

Both of these races will go to hand recounts it looks like... still don't expect the final result to be affected.

[Alcon]

What's that red bit in Tacoma near all the dark green ones?

There's sort of a neighborhood line that runs North-South there (Orchard Street) -- on one side is the North End, which was about 70% Approve, and on the other, the West End, which was in the low-mid 50's.  That's a West End precinct that just happened to slip a few votes under 50%.  Older, more working-class, less-educated whites.

Awesome maps! I wish I had the skills to make those...

It looks like the Kitsap portion of Pierce voted yes on R74, which surprises me...

The Kitsap portion of Pierce is actually fairly affluent and educated, and tends to be socially moderate (although there's also some folks in trailers up there.)  Demographically, it's a lot more like the coastal parts of Southeast Kitsap which, once I get a Kitsap shapefile, you'll see were relatively pro-gay versus the interior.

[Alcon]

Charter schools


Governor - Inslee vs. McKenna


Secretary of State - Drew vs. Wyman


Sorry for the colors, but they were made for "real-life" people.  Awful I know.

[Meeker]

Here's something kind of fun to ponder (numbers as of 4:30 PM on 11/19):

Total votes cast for President: 3,055,114 (98.5% of ballots)
Total votes cast for I-502: 3,026,689 (97.6% of ballots)
Total votes cast for R-74: 3,022,577 (97.5% of ballots)
Total votes cast for Governor: 3,003,292 (96.9% of ballots)
Total votes cast for Senator: 3,001,184 (96.8% of ballots)
Total votes cast for I-1240: 2,943,535 (94.9% of ballots)
Total votes cast for I-1185: 2,897,011 (93.4% of ballots)
Total votes cast for Supreme Court, Pos. 9: 2,400,748 (77.4% of ballots)

Total ballots returned: 3,100,831

[Sbane]

I-502 precinct map please! (though I have a feeling it could be boring)

[Alcon]

I-502 (not totally boring, but a lot more homogeneous)

[Sbane]

Like I expected, widespread support. Thanks!

[they don't love you like i love you]

Why are the colors messed up for Governor and Sec of State?

[bgwah]

Cantwell is now winning Yakima County!

[Alcon]

Why are the colors messed up for Governor and Sec of State?

Sorry for the colors, but they were made for "real-life" people.  Awful I know.

[Seattle]

I'm amazed that Cantwell can get 60+% of the vote and still lose Whitman/Spokane. Winning Yakima county is surprising, and makes for a cool looking map. Kittitas is also really close, but I don't think there are enough votes for her to win it.

[Meeker]

She would have won Spokane if the nominee wasn't Baumgartner (though if the nominee wasn't Baumgartner she may not have gotten 60% I suppose...)

[CultureKing]

I am glad to see that Sanders lost! I forgot about that race..