Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Alaska2392]

Out of curiosity - does anyone know who draws City Council districts post-2020? IIRC the current lines were imposed by the initiative backers

"Every ten years, the district boundaries would be re-designated by a five-member Districting Commission composed of two members appointed by the Mayor, two by a two-thirds vote of the City Council, and the fifth appointed by the first four.  The first Commission must be appointed by October 31, 2022.  The Districting Commission must appoint a master who must draw a districting plan.  The population of the largest district cannot exceed the population of the smallest district by more than one percent.  To the extent possible, natural boundaries must be taken into account.  The Districting Commission must then develop, and approve by majority vote, a districting proposal.  After public comment, the Commission must approve a final districting plan, which must be filed with the City Clerk.  Upon filing with the City Clerk, the districting plan will become final."

[KingSweden]

Out of curiosity - does anyone know who draws City Council districts post-2020? IIRC the current lines were imposed by the initiative backers

"Every ten years, the district boundaries would be re-designated by a five-member Districting Commission composed of two members appointed by the Mayor, two by a two-thirds vote of the City Council, and the fifth appointed by the first four.  The first Commission must be appointed by October 31, 2022.  The Districting Commission must appoint a master who must draw a districting plan.  The population of the largest district cannot exceed the population of the smallest district by more than one percent.  To the extent possible, natural boundaries must be taken into account.  The Districting Commission must then develop, and approve by majority vote, a districting proposal.  After public comment, the Commission must approve a final districting plan, which must be filed with the City Clerk.  Upon filing with the City Clerk, the districting plan will become final."

Interesting that city council has no say. I'm curious if anyone has gamed out what the districts may look like - some neighborhoods are definitely growing faster than others.

[Seattle]

Districts 7 (downtown, Queen Anne, and Magnolia) and 3 (Capitol Hill, First Hill, Central Area) will shrink, particularly 7. My guess is Magnolia goes to 6 (Ballard and Northwest Seattle), although 6 will likely shrink a bit.

5 (North Seattle) will have to grow the most, followed by 1 (West Seattle), 4 (Northeast Seattle, U District, Wallingford), and 2 (South Seattle). The latter two probably only grow a bit, but that's challenging for 1 as its borders are perfectly aligned with the Duwamish. It'll likely have to take all of SoDo and creep up into Pioneer Square. 2 is easy, it'll eat 3's area south of I90.
Link to map:http://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/elections/elections/~/media/depts/elections/elections/maps/seattle-city-council-maps/seattle-city-council-districts.ashx

[KingSweden]

Districts 7 (downtown, Queen Anne, and Magnolia) and 3 (Capitol Hill, First Hill, Central Area) will shrink, particularly 7. My guess is Magnolia goes to 6 (Ballard and Northwest Seattle), although 6 will likely shrink a bit.

5 (North Seattle) will have to grow the most, followed by 1 (West Seattle), 4 (Northeast Seattle, U District, Wallingford), and 2 (South Seattle). The latter two probably only grow a bit, but that's challenging for 1 as its borders are perfectly aligned with the Duwamish. It'll likely have to take all of SoDo and creep up into Pioneer Square. 2 is easy, it'll eat 3's area south of I90.
Link to map:http://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/elections/elections/~/media/depts/elections/elections/maps/seattle-city-council-maps/seattle-city-council-districts.ashx

Yeah the map definitely won't be as clean.

In light of the Reichert news, I'm curious if some bigger names take a run at the 8th and if that opens the door for current candidates to drop down into the Leg races

[Seattle]

I wonder if Issaquah city councilor Tola Marts drops down to run in LD-5 if Mallet runs. Or perhaps he'd challenge Rodne or Graves anyway.

No one's mentioned her in the other thread, but popular LD-47 rep Pat Sullivan could make a run for it.
I'm really surprised that moderate (& young) Joe Fain isn't taking a stab at it. Maybe he thinks he wouldn't make it to the top two.

[KingSweden]

I wonder if Issaquah city councilor Tola Marts drops down to run in LD-5 if Mallet runs. Or perhaps he'd challenge Rodne or Graves anyway.

No one's mentioned her in the other thread, but popular LD-47 rep Pat Sullivan could make a run for it.
I'm really surprised that moderate (& young) Joe Fain isn't taking a stab at it. Maybe he thinks he wouldn't make it to the top two.

I think Fain wants Mark Schoesler's job, at least that's my suspicion. Especially now that he's the last Bold Moderate Eastside Republican^TM that's left.

[smoltchanov]

I wonder if Issaquah city councilor Tola Marts drops down to run in LD-5 if Mallet runs. Or perhaps he'd challenge Rodne or Graves anyway.

No one's mentioned her in the other thread, but popular LD-47 rep Pat Sullivan could make a run for it.
I'm really surprised that moderate (& young) Joe Fain isn't taking a stab at it. Maybe he thinks he wouldn't make it to the top two.

I think Fain wants Mark Schoesler's job, at least that's my suspicion. Especially now that he's the last Bold Moderate Eastside Republican^TM that's left.

No one else left? Even in Bellevue, Redmond and Mercer Island councils?

[KingSweden]

I wonder if Issaquah city councilor Tola Marts drops down to run in LD-5 if Mallet runs. Or perhaps he'd challenge Rodne or Graves anyway.

No one's mentioned her in the other thread, but popular LD-47 rep Pat Sullivan could make a run for it.
I'm really surprised that moderate (& young) Joe Fain isn't taking a stab at it. Maybe he thinks he wouldn't make it to the top two.

I think Fain wants Mark Schoesler's job, at least that's my suspicion. Especially now that he's the last Bold Moderate Eastside Republican^TM that's left.

No one else left? Even in Bellevue, Redmond and Mercer Island councils?

Rossi - filling in during vacancies
Rodney Tom - switched parties (twice), retired when Habib lined him up
Steve Litzow - defeated
Andy Hill - died, sadly
Kathy Lambert - likely the last Republican for a long time who will hold her current council seat
Reagan Dunn - his last statewide foray didn't go well. Would probably lose WA-8
Rob McKenna - the golden boy, likely done with elective politics for the foreseeable future

Am I missing anyone? 16 years ago this was a deep future bench for the WAGOP. Last year they had to draft total rando Bill Bryant just to have a warm body against Jay Inslee. All three Dem front runners in '20 are MUCH more exciting and engaging politicians than Inslee.

The old backbone of the WAGOP is gone.

[smoltchanov]

^ I know all those persons)) That's why i asked about members of city councils, which i couldn't know. Like John Chelminiak (Bellevue)... Probably - there are others too. And i am not so sure that Reagan Dunn will neccessarily lose WA-08 too...

[KingSweden]

^ I know all those persons)) That's why i asked about members of city councils, which i couldn't know. Like John Chelminiak (Bellevue)...

Bellevue's city council was conservative majority as recently as a few years ago, but I believe it has flipped. Redmond, Mercer Island and Kirkland are all pretty standard suburban Dem

[smoltchanov]

Well, thanks! Still i believe the district will be very competitive next year, and that Republicans will have good candidate too. We shall see...

[KingSweden]

Breaking: Murray Out Tomorrow

http://www.thestranger.com/slog/2017/09/12/25408886/seattle-mayor-ed-murray-will-resign-after-cousin-accuses-him-of-sexual-abuse

[Alaska2392]

Seattle Times is reporting that Bruce Harrell does not want to be mayor and therefore the council will have to choose someone else - probably Tim Burgess. This will not stop some people from freaking out that the council will nominate Sawant.  I'd love to see the meltdown though.

[KingSweden]

Per DKE there's apparently a poll out there somewhere with Dhingra up 55-41. Specials can be hard to poll but I think that will be close to the final margin, personally. Figure a lot of those undecideds break D. And once Dhingra is seated (presuming a massive upset doesn't occur) then the Senate GOP's witch hunt against Sound Transit can end.

[KingSweden]

Englund campaign is getting hilariously  desperate. Now blaming Dhingra for Amazon seeking their secondary HQ and claiming that she wants to help Kshama Sawant and Ed Murray "impose Seattle values on the Eastside." Heroin injection sites and "cash grabs!" were bandied around too.

Pro tip, GOP: it's not the 1980s anymore

[mds32]

I saw this on DailyKos:

Olympia City Council Seat 6 Aug. 1st Election Results

Jeannine Roe (R-inc) — 45.57% (4237)

Renata Rollins (G) — 37.02% (3,442)

Michael Snodgrass (D) — 17.4% (1618)

Greens and Democrats have teamed up to fund and support Renata Rollins (G) in the runoff on Nov. 7th to take this Olympia, WA (pop. 51.2k) city council seat. This is a way to push Jill Stein out of our minds and realize that Greens and Dems can work together against Republicans when necessary. Jeannine Roe is a confirmed Republican City Councilor.

This is a seat that we as a coalition can definitely win, and the Green Party would actually have a chance to grow. Greens, when they don’t cause ballot splitting catastrophes, should most certainly be given the chance to govern. Cam Gordon (G) is a city councilor on the Minneapolis City Council, the largest city council with a Green Party officeholder currently.

[KingSweden]

I saw this on DailyKos:

Olympia City Council Seat 6 Aug. 1st Election Results

Jeannine Roe (R-inc) — 45.57% (4237)

Renata Rollins (G) — 37.02% (3,442)

Michael Snodgrass (D) — 17.4% (1618)

Greens and Democrats have teamed up to fund and support Renata Rollins (G) in the runoff on Nov. 7th to take this Olympia, WA (pop. 51.2k) city council seat. This is a way to push Jill Stein out of our minds and realize that Greens and Dems can work together against Republicans when necessary. Jeannine Roe is a confirmed Republican City Councilor.

This is a seat that we as a coalition can definitely win, and the Green Party would actually have a chance to grow. Greens, when they don’t cause ballot splitting catastrophes, should most certainly be given the chance to govern. Cam Gordon (G) is a city councilor on the Minneapolis City Council, the largest city council with a Green Party officeholder currently.

Could happen. Olympia is a pretty progressive town (see: Evergreens State, which had a rep as hippyland even a decade ago)

[Seattle]

Bgwah in another forum pointed out that Washington state OFM released their 2017 population estimates for smaller entities, like legislative districts!

And so now we have a picture of how Seattle's explosive growth will shape redistricting come 2020.
Based on a population of 7,310,300, each district should have 149,190 people.

Districts by numeric and percent growth between 2010-2017:

1. 43rd (Capitol Hill, First Hill, Central Area, U District),     173,641, 36,389, 26.51%
2. 36th (South Lake Union, Belltown, Queen Anne, Ballard),  167,352, 30,105, 21.94%
3. 1st (Bothell, Juanita, unincorporated Snoho),                   159,308, 22,072, 16.08%
4. 37th (Pioneer Square, South Seattle, Skyway),            157,001, 19,809, 14.44%
5. 21st (Edmonds, Mukilteo, Mill Creek),                             155,896, 18,636, 13.58%
6. 18th (Exurban Clark County),                                         154,432, 17,215, 12.55%
7. 9th (Pullman, rural counties, West Pasco),                       153,937, 16,714, 12.18%
8. 44th (Lake Stevens, Snohomish, Mill Creek),                   153,400, 16,154, 11.77%
9. 5th (North Bend, Sammamish, Issaquah),                       153,230, 16,020, 11.68%
10. 2nd (Rural Pierce Co, Lacey, Yelm),                               152,987, 15,785, 11.51%
11. 22nd (Olympia, Lacey),                                                152,822, 15,583, 11.36%
12. 8th (Richland, Kennewick),                                           152,477, 15,275, 11.13%
13. 31st (Exurban and rural King/Pierce)                             152,397, 15,183, 11.07%
14. 17th (East Vancouver, Battleground),                            152,203, 14,973, 10.91%
15. 48th (Redmond, Kirkland, Bellevue),                             151,660, 14,434, 10.52%
16. 34th (West Seattle, Burien, Vashon Island)                151,238, 14,030, 10.23%
....
22. 46th (NE Seattle, Northgate, Shoreline, Kenmore)      149,079, 11,826, 8.62%

[KingSweden]

Bgwah in another forum pointed out that Washington state OFM released their 2017 population estimates for smaller entities, like legislative districts!

And so now we have a picture of how Seattle's explosive growth will shape redistricting come 2020.
Based on a population of 7,310,300, each district should have 149,190 people.

Districts by numeric and percent growth between 2010-2017:

1. 43rd (Capitol Hill, First Hill, Central Area, U District),     173,641, 36,389, 26.51%
2. 36th (South Lake Union, Belltown, Queen Anne, Ballard),  167,352, 30,105, 21.94%
3. 1st (Bothell, Juanita, unincorporated Snoho),                   159,308, 22,072, 16.08%
4. 37th (Pioneer Square, South Seattle, Skyway),            157,001, 19,809, 14.44%
5. 21st (Edmonds, Mukilteo, Mill Creek),                             155,896, 18,636, 13.58%
6. 18th (Exurban Clark County),                                         154,432, 17,215, 12.55%
7. 9th (Pullman, rural counties, West Pasco),                       153,937, 16,714, 12.18%
8. 44th (Lake Stevens, Snohomish, Mill Creek),                   153,400, 16,154, 11.77%
9. 5th (North Bend, Sammamish, Issaquah),                       153,230, 16,020, 11.68%
10. 2nd (Rural Pierce Co, Lacey, Yelm),                               152,987, 15,785, 11.51%
11. 22nd (Olympia, Lacey),                                                152,822, 15,583, 11.36%
12. 8th (Richland, Kennewick),                                           152,477, 15,275, 11.13%
13. 31st (Exurban and rural King/Pierce)                             152,397, 15,183, 11.07%
14. 17th (East Vancouver, Battleground),                            152,203, 14,973, 10.91%
15. 48th (Redmond, Kirkland, Bellevue),                             151,660, 14,434, 10.52%
16. 34th (West Seattle, Burien, Vashon Island)                151,238, 14,030, 10.23%
....
22. 46th (NE Seattle, Northgate, Shoreline, Kenmore)      149,079, 11,826, 8.62%

This is awesome! Do you know where the original data/projections was posted by bgwah?

Those raw numbers in the fastest growing districts are nuts. Crazy to think I live in the 3rd fastest growing one (LD1. North Bothell is growing like gangbusters). The lines in Jing County will be really different in the 2020s

[Seattle]

Here you go: http://ofm.wa.gov/pop/smallarea/default.asp

Im surprised to see some far flung suburbs and exurbs growing quickly too. Looks like tract housing is all the rage again in suburban Snohomish county. Boo.

[KingSweden]

Here you go: http://ofm.wa.gov/pop/smallarea/default.asp

Im surprised to see some far flung suburbs and exurbs growing quickly too. Looks like tract housing is all the rage again in suburban Snohomish county. Boo.

I believe both Lynnwood and Everett have long term plans for downtown density (color me skeptical), but other than that yeah it's pretty sprawl-y.

It's crazy that some of those Seattle districts are 15-20k overpopulated. Those people will have to go somewhere. The new maps should definitely advantage Democrats more than the current ones, especially if there's 27 districts growing more slowly than a relatively median district like the 46th. Lot of places that will need to take on more land.

[Seattle]

Definitely. Seattle has enough people for 4.78 districts and will probably be just below 5 for the census.
There will be at least 6 districts based in Seattle, and likely a 7th taking a small 20-30k remainder (like the 11th and 32nd currently do).

I think the casualty district will come from the Olympic Peninsula/Coast/SW Washington.
The 19th (Gray's Harbor, Pacific, and Longview) was the slowest growing +1.19%, while the 24th (Olympic Peninsula) and 35th (Mason County) were bottom 10. Also the 20th grew pretty slowly (Lewis/Clark/Thurston counties).

[KingSweden]

Definitely. Seattle has enough people for 4.78 districts and will probably be just below 5 for the census.
There will be at least 6 districts based in Seattle, and likely a 7th taking a small 20-30k remainder (like the 11th and 32nd currently do).

I think the casualty district will come from the Olympic Peninsula/Coast/SW Washington.
The 19th (Gray's Harbor, Pacific, and Longview) was the slowest growing +1.19%, while the 24th (Olympic Peninsula) and 35th (Mason County) were bottom 10. Also the 20th grew pretty slowly (Lewis/Clark/Thurston counties).

Yup. Those districts are probably eventually gone for Dems anyhow

[publicunofficial]

I think Dems could hold a district that was a combo of the current 24th and 35th, coming from someone who lives here.

Alternatively just fold the 19th into the 20th, since the trend there seems terminal.

[KingSweden]

I think Dems could hold a district that was a combo of the current 24th and 35th, coming from someone who lives here.

Alternatively just fold the 19th into the 20th, since the trend there seems terminal.

Figuring out a way to draw Tim Sheldon out of a district would be a great start, at least