Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[bgwah]

Does this make Tim Sheldon a member of the Minority Coalition Caucus?

[KingSweden]

Does this make Tim Sheldon a member of the Minority Coalition Caucus?

Lol it certainly does

So - now with data points from this fall’s Elections... predictions for next year?

[Seattle]

I think as in 2010, the state will be hit less drastically by the impending wave.

Mark Miloscia is probably DOA given LD-30 voted out two R incumbents in 2016, plus the heavy D tilt of the district. I also think Joe Fain will go down, though if anyone survives, it's him.

I'm less familiar with the suburban districts in Pierce county that Ds made major gains in during 2004-2008, only to lose them in 2010-2014.

Another race to watch will be Jim Walsh, the R who barely won on coastal LD-19 in 2016. Can the Dems win back this Demasaur district?

Finally, the lovely Matt Manweller is facing several sexual harassment allegations in LD-13 (Ellensburg + Moses Lake), a safe R district. I think he'll probably ending up resigning, but if he doesn't he could very well lose in the primary between multiple Rs and a D.
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/times-watchdog/state-rep-matt-manweller-has-faced-sexual-misconduct-complaints-from-students/

[KingSweden]

I think as in 2010, the state will be hit less drastically by the impending wave.

Mark Miloscia is probably DOA given LD-30 voted out two R incumbents in 2016, plus the heavy D tilt of the district. I also think Joe Fain will go down, though if anyone survives, it's him.

I'm less familiar with the suburban districts in Pierce county that Ds made major gains in during 2004-2008, only to lose them in 2010-2014.

Another race to watch will be Jim Walsh, the R who barely won on coastal LD-19 in 2016. Can the Dems win back this Demasaur district?

Finally, the lovely Matt Manweller is facing several sexual harassment allegations in LD-13 (Ellensburg + Moses Lake), a safe R district. I think he'll probably ending up resigning, but if he doesn't he could very well lose in the primary between multiple Rs and a D.
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/times-watchdog/state-rep-matt-manweller-has-faced-sexual-misconduct-complaints-from-students/

Yeah I wouldn’t be surprised by anything from D+1 to D+4 in the Senate (Angel and Baumgardner are my other two potential D pickups). I also imagine the two GOPers in the 5th could be on borrowed time

[publicunofficial]

Miloscia is almost certainly a goner, Graves and Rodne are probably underdogs especially with national Dems sure to pump money into the WA-08 race.

Past that, I actually consider Fain to be a more compelling target over Angel or Baumgardner, though it's close. Dems could particularly target Jesse Young in the house seat for LD-26, who has built up a reputation as somewhat of an asshole.

Jim Walsh is probably safe. Aberdeen and Longview trended hard right last election; and Walsh has been very solid since his election, most notably taking the lead on trying to get Atlantic salmon farms banned (An issue a lot of people in this part of Washington are especially angry about).

I'm also of the opinion that the 35th is still worth spending money on. The Republicans (and Sheldon) don't win by massive marigins, and the portions of Thurston in the 35th are still solidly Democratic leaning.

[KingSweden]

RIP John Spellman, the last GOP governor of Washington (1981-1985). Dead today at 91. Hard to believe today but him replacing Democrat Dixy Lee Ray actually moved the mansion to the left. The first King County Executive - he helped create the post - and an environmentalist. Very moderate even for his time, when the WA GOP was dominated by Slade Gortom and Ken Eikenberry

[publicunofficial]

Former Clallam County Commissioner Jim McEntire (R) will run against State Rep. Steve Tharinger (D) in the 24th LD, per Peninsula Daily News.

Assuming Republicans don't get a foothold in the Seattle suburbs again, this is a seat they absolutely need to be competitive in if they want to ever control the legislature again. McEntire ran against Tharinger in 2010 and lost 52-47, and Tharinger has gotten around 56% in every election after that.

In addition, McEntire is a "former" Clallam County Commissioner because he lost re-election fairly badly to a decently left-wing challenger in 2014. So he's not an incredibly strong candidate, but it'll be interesting to see how he does.

[KingSweden]

Former Clallam County Commissioner Jim McEntire (R) will run against State Rep. Steve Tharinger (D) in the 24th LD, per Peninsula Daily News.

Assuming Republicans don't get a foothold in the Seattle suburbs again, this is a seat they absolutely need to be competitive in if they want to ever control the legislature again. McEntire ran against Tharinger in 2010 and lost 52-47, and Tharinger has gotten around 56% in every election after that.

In addition, McEntire is a "former" Clallam County Commissioner because he lost re-election fairly badly to a decently left-wing challenger in 2014. So he's not an incredibly strong candidate, but it'll be interesting to see how he does.

Since this is your neck of the woods, do you think the GOP trend there is still ongoing or should we expect a snap back to historic Dem strength on the Peninsula?

[publicunofficial]

Former Clallam County Commissioner Jim McEntire (R) will run against State Rep. Steve Tharinger (D) in the 24th LD, per Peninsula Daily News.

Assuming Republicans don't get a foothold in the Seattle suburbs again, this is a seat they absolutely need to be competitive in if they want to ever control the legislature again. McEntire ran against Tharinger in 2010 and lost 52-47, and Tharinger has gotten around 56% in every election after that.

In addition, McEntire is a "former" Clallam County Commissioner because he lost re-election fairly badly to a decently left-wing challenger in 2014. So he's not an incredibly strong candidate, but it'll be interesting to see how he does.

Since this is your neck of the woods, do you think the GOP trend there is still ongoing or should we expect a snap back to historic Dem strength on the Peninsula?

The GOP trend was way less signifigant in the northern peninsula than the southern areas like Aberdeen or Shelton. Despite Trump flipping the county, the GOP raw vote total in Clallam county between 2012 and 2016 was nearly the exact same, a lot of Dems just stayed home or voted third party (Hillary was not popular here at all). Dems also crushed in the 24th in 2016 despite defending two open seats, so I'm really not at all worried.

Also Port Townsend + the native american areas on the western coast give Democrats a bigger edge than in the 19th or 35th LD's

[KingSweden]

Former Clallam County Commissioner Jim McEntire (R) will run against State Rep. Steve Tharinger (D) in the 24th LD, per Peninsula Daily News.

Assuming Republicans don't get a foothold in the Seattle suburbs again, this is a seat they absolutely need to be competitive in if they want to ever control the legislature again. McEntire ran against Tharinger in 2010 and lost 52-47, and Tharinger has gotten around 56% in every election after that.

In addition, McEntire is a "former" Clallam County Commissioner because he lost re-election fairly badly to a decently left-wing challenger in 2014. So he's not an incredibly strong candidate, but it'll be interesting to see how he does.

Since this is your neck of the woods, do you think the GOP trend there is still ongoing or should we expect a snap back to historic Dem strength on the Peninsula?

The GOP trend was way less signifigant in the northern peninsula than the southern areas like Aberdeen or Shelton. Despite Trump flipping the county, the GOP raw vote total in Clallam county between 2012 and 2016 was nearly the exact same, a lot of Dems just stayed home or voted third party (Hillary was not popular here at all). Dems also crushed in the 24th in 2016 despite defending two open seats, so I'm really not at all worried.

Also Port Townsend + the native american areas on the western coast give Democrats a bigger edge than in the 19th or 35th LD's

I suspected Port Townsend helps keep things out of danger territory. Probably still best for us to keep an eye on this area in future races. Though the three guys in the 24th all seem fairly impressive

[publicunofficial]

Looking at the roll call vote for some of the major bills that have passed the legislature in the past few days. Signs of vunerability from the Seattle-Tacoma metro R's.

Fain and Miloscia voted to ban the death penalty, Hans Zeiger joined with them and  voted to ban bump stocks.

Senators Walsh, Hawkins, and Warnick also joined with D's on the death penalty repeal. All 3 represent solid R eastern WA districts (Warnick representing the most R leaning seat in the Senate even) 

[KingSweden]

Maureen Walsh is surprisingly moderate for her district, and support for the death penalty is softer than it once was (Walsh even sponsored the death penalty repeal).

I’m curious who the Dems who voted *against* repeal are.

[publicunofficial]

Maureen Walsh is surprisingly moderate for her district, and support for the death penalty is softer than it once was (Walsh even sponsored the death penalty repeal).

I’m curious who the Dems who voted *against* repeal are.

Van de Wege, Takko, Conway, and Hobbs

Conway sticks out like a sore thumb there, representing a diverse urban Tacoma district.

[KingSweden]

Maureen Walsh is surprisingly moderate for her district, and support for the death penalty is softer than it once was (Walsh even sponsored the death penalty repeal).

I’m curious who the Dems who voted *against* repeal are.

Van de Wege, Takko, Conway, and Hobbs

Conway sticks out like a sore thumb there, representing a diverse urban Tacoma district.

Lol wut Steve Conway? He must just... he must have strong feelings about it. The other three I get.

[publicunofficial]

LD-25: State Rep. Melanie Stambaugh will retire after two terms at the ripe old age of 27.

https://twitter.com/walkerorenstein/status/964992065212837889?ref_src=twcamp%5Ecopy%7Ctwsrc%5Eandroid%7Ctwgr%5Ecopy%7Ctwcon%5E7090%7Ctwterm%5E1

[Seattle]

Baumgartner (R, LD-6) is not running for reelection to the state senate and will instead run for Spokane County auditor. I already had this as Likely R, but I think it now deserves Tilt R rating. Depending on who runs, this could be a great pick up opportunity. I believe it was Trump +1.5 or so.

[Ted Cruz 2024]

I think the GOP (might) flip both the state senate and state House. The carbon tax isn’t going to be smart for the Democrats considering it failed by 25 points in 2016. I believe if the GOP plays there cards right an 25-24 and 50-48 state House and senate could happen.

[KingSweden]

Those are HUGE pickup opportunities. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Democrats flip the other 25th HoR seat, too.

I think the GOP (might) flip both the state senate and state House. The carbon tax isn’t going to be smart for the Democrats considering it failed by 25 points in 2016. I believe if the GOP plays there cards right an 25-24 and 50-48 state House and senate could happen.

lol ok sure

[Seattle]

I'm dumb, I meant LD-6. Derp.

But yes, both LD-25 House seats will be prime pick up opportunities in a Trump +1.3 district that voted for Obama twice (45.2-46.5).

Do you think Matt Shea has any chance of being voted out?

[KingSweden]

I'm dumb, I meant LD-6. Derp.

But yes, both LD-25 House seats will be prime pick up opportunities in a Trump +1.3 district that voted for Obama twice (45.2-46.5).

Do you think Matt Shea has any chance of being voted out?

The Ozzie Knezovich faction of the Spokane County GOP will be gunning for him as always. Hard to say, he’s survived so far.

[KingSweden]

Did I miss the announcement that Jay Rodne is retiring too? Big if true. Ds should flip both seats in the 5th.

[Seattle]

Totally missed that!
However, former rep Chad Magendanz who unsuccessfully ran to unseat Mullet in 2016 is running to replace Rodne.
Still probably the strongest current House pick up opportunity.

Also, a watered down version of automatic voter registration was passed yesterday. Those applying for/renewing their enhanced driver's licenses are automatically registered (and so will a couple of other state departments like veteran affairs, agriculture, and military stuff).

[KingSweden]

How is Legislative recruiting coming along? Filing deadline is fairly soon yeah?

[smoltchanov]

How is Legislative recruiting coming along? Filing deadline is fairly soon yeah?

May 18th, IIRC....

[publicunofficial]

This, but unironically.