Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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Author Topic: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 837115 times)
ottermax
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« Reply #550 on: November 30, 2008, 01:49:18 AM »

I'm surprised areas of Mason Co. such as Hoodsport and other tourist resort areas were not as strongly Democratic. Obama did strongly among those groups, but maybe they don't actually live near the tourist resort areas (such as Alderbrook). Hood Canal... I wonder how many people actually vote in those precincts because most of the people there are summer vacation homeowners.
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Meeker
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« Reply #551 on: November 30, 2008, 07:11:46 PM »

Chelan has some... interesting precincts.
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Alcon
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« Reply #552 on: November 30, 2008, 07:32:14 PM »

Chelan has some... interesting precincts.

The shapes are weird because there are a few arterials and most people live within a few miles of them on off-roads.  After that it's basically National Forest Service land.  Makes things look really weird (and ugly).  The dark red is Holden Village, which is a spiritualist Lutheran camp or something.  Went 36-4-2 Obama.

Skamania kind of has that too, most of the interior precincts are really low-population.  Almost everyone lives near the river (unlike Klickitat, while has the Goldendale Valley)
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CultureKing
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« Reply #553 on: November 30, 2008, 11:06:23 PM »

Is there Indian land around Kamilche?  I thought it was just the Skokomish Rez in Mason, but there's gotta be some reason Kamilche is liberal.

Although it was barely >60 so it may just be a blip.

Kamilche = Squaxin
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Meeker
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« Reply #554 on: December 02, 2008, 06:31:27 AM »
« Edited: December 02, 2008, 03:49:51 PM by VP Meeker »

I was bored, so I made some maps! Cheesy They're not as good quality as Alcon's because I'm not a demi-God. And I switched red and blue to make them usable to the general population.

28th State Rep. Pos. 1 on top, Pos. 2 on bottom



The only sort of interesting things (although not unexpected) is Kelley doing worse in south Lakewood than Green - whether that was because it was Dooley's home turf or because it was Green's home turf is up for debate. Kelley also rocked the military parts of the district compared to Green (may have something to do with Kelley being in the military). Green lost 28-451 by 1 vote. It continues to be my least favorite precinct in the district (Giving Muri 70%? Really? I know he lives there, but you guys of all people should know what he's like...)

And now the painful one



Um, yea... ow. Srail doing better in UP than Fircrest (compared to an average Dem who would get 43% of the vote) is probably attributed to parents of her students.
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platypeanArchcow
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« Reply #555 on: December 02, 2008, 02:07:08 PM »

I was bored, so I made some maps! Cheesy They're not as good quality as Alcon's because I'm not a demi-God. And I switched red and blue to make them usable to the general population.

Tip: don't use JPEG for images with large fields of even color.  PNG compresses such things better and doesn't introduce artifacts.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #556 on: December 02, 2008, 03:36:12 PM »

Wrong colors! Angry
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Meeker
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« Reply #557 on: December 02, 2008, 03:39:36 PM »

I was bored, so I made some maps! Cheesy They're not as good quality as Alcon's because I'm not a demi-God. And I switched red and blue to make them usable to the general population.

Tip: don't use JPEG for images with large fields of even color.  PNG compresses such things better and doesn't introduce artifacts.

It's saved as a PNG file on my computer, but for some reason it switched it when I uploaded. I'll see if I can fix it.
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Meeker
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« Reply #558 on: December 02, 2008, 03:50:04 PM »

Images fixed.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #559 on: December 02, 2008, 05:42:47 PM »

What about Thurston?

Sad
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Alcon
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« Reply #560 on: December 02, 2008, 06:01:28 PM »


I have a probable Thurston source, but I want to try the county directly first.  I don't want to push my luck, since I already used them for Pierce.

I'll call the county now.
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Alcon
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« Reply #561 on: December 02, 2008, 06:19:38 PM »

I called Thurston.  They normally charge $50, but the lady working there said they'll probably make an exemption.  I just need to talk directly with the lady who specializes in shapefiles tomorrow.

I should probably have it tomorrow afternoon-ish.  Adams County should be up later this afternoon.
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Meeker
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« Reply #562 on: December 02, 2008, 06:57:20 PM »

Are there any Democratic precincts in Adams County?
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Alcon
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« Reply #563 on: December 02, 2008, 07:11:52 PM »

Are there any Democratic precincts in Adams County?

Othello Rural #1 is primarily Hispanic and any Democrat worth their salt should carry it.  Naturally, Kerry lost it by 14 points.

Othello #3 is similar, but more Republican.  Hard to judge by the 2006 Senate numbers -- Cantwell won it narrowly, and Obama should benefit from increased Hispanic turnout.  But Cantwell also did better in Adams County than Obama among whites.

There are two small Othello precincts:  One Cantwell won, but went 90% Bush; the other has a pretty strong GOP race, but small precincts can behave oddly.

Beyond that, we're getting into 30% margins (Ritzville Ward 1 & Othello #2), and then out into "it'd take a miracle."  I think Othello Rural #1 is at least a 60% shot, though.
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Daniel Z
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« Reply #564 on: December 02, 2008, 07:14:39 PM »

I called Thurston.  They normally charge $50, but the lady working there said they'll probably make an exemption.  I just need to talk directly with the lady who specializes in shapefiles tomorrow.

I should probably have it tomorrow afternoon-ish.  Adams County should be up later this afternoon.
Great!
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Alcon
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« Reply #565 on: December 02, 2008, 10:18:11 PM »
« Edited: December 02, 2008, 10:48:24 PM by Alcon »

adams county sux

second day in a row she was going to send it before she went home.  boo.

King on Friday, at least.  Is it a little sad that that's the most exciting thing in my week?
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Meeker
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« Reply #566 on: December 03, 2008, 12:17:37 AM »

OSPI! Bergeson in green, Dorn in yellow



It really makes a lot of sense when you break it down by precinct.
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Alcon
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« Reply #567 on: December 03, 2008, 12:44:33 AM »

Mind explaining that one?

Seems Bergeson did really well among old voters and areas that tend to like unthreatening incumbents...beyond that "gruhh?"

I'm planning to do a full-county SPI with King and Pierce, and maybe others if King and Pierce as a whole aren't boring.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #568 on: December 03, 2008, 01:35:39 AM »

Washington Legislature History

You might be interested in this.  Starting on page 157 (162 of the .PDF file) you'll find legislative district maps since statehood. 

There is also some stuff on the territorial legislature.  Early on the the population centers were Vancouver, Clarke County (sic until 1924); and Olympia, Thurston County.  The next boom was in Walla Walla.  Tacoma and then Seattle were somewhat later developers.
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Meeker
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« Reply #569 on: December 03, 2008, 01:54:59 AM »

Mind explaining that one?

Seems Bergeson did really well among old voters and areas that tend to like unthreatening incumbents...beyond that "gruhh?"

I'm planning to do a full-county SPI with King and Pierce, and maybe others if King and Pierce as a whole aren't boring.

Oh I have no idea what the hell it means - I was being sarcastic.

Older voters is somewhat of a common thread, although a few of those UP and Lakewood precincts aren't that old... I tried to piece something together on income but that basically falls flat when you look at the part of UP nearest to the water.

Nearly every precinct was >50% though, and most somewhere in the 50%-53% range, so I think which way a lot of these precincts swung was as close to random as election results can get.

Just a bizarre race overall.
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Alcon
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« Reply #570 on: December 03, 2008, 02:03:18 AM »

Awesome stuff Jim.  I'll look at it more in the morning.  I knew that Grays Harbor County used to be Chehalis County, but not about Clark-with-an-"e."  Growth redistricting should be cool, too.
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bgwah
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« Reply #571 on: December 03, 2008, 02:06:02 AM »

Washington Legislature History

You might be interested in this.  Starting on page 157 (162 of the .PDF file) you'll find legislative district maps since statehood. 

There is also some stuff on the territorial legislature.  Early on the the population centers were Vancouver, Clarke County (sic until 1924); and Olympia, Thurston County.  The next boom was in Walla Walla.  Tacoma and then Seattle were somewhat later developers.

Yeah. Southeastern Washington used to have as many people as the Puget Sound.

Awesome stuff Jim.  I'll look at it more in the morning.  I knew that Grays Harbor County used to be Chehalis County, but not about Clark-with-an-"e."  Growth redistricting should be cool, too.

I DID, CUZ I'M AWESOME.

Wasn't Kitsap "Slaughter County" originally?
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Alcon
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« Reply #572 on: December 03, 2008, 02:08:29 AM »

Washington Legislature History

You might be interested in this.  Starting on page 157 (162 of the .PDF file) you'll find legislative district maps since statehood. 

There is also some stuff on the territorial legislature.  Early on the the population centers were Vancouver, Clarke County (sic until 1924); and Olympia, Thurston County.  The next boom was in Walla Walla.  Tacoma and then Seattle were somewhat later developers.

Yeah. Southeastern Washington used to have as many people as the Puget Sound.

Awesome stuff Jim.  I'll look at it more in the morning.  I knew that Grays Harbor County used to be Chehalis County, but not about Clark-with-an-"e."  Growth redistricting should be cool, too.

I DID, CUZ I'M AWESOME.

Wasn't Kitsap "Slaughter County" originally?

Yep, and Mason was originally Sawamish County.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #573 on: December 03, 2008, 08:50:42 PM »

Awesome stuff Jim.  I'll look at it more in the morning.  I knew that Grays Harbor County used to be Chehalis County, but not about Clark-with-an-"e."  Growth redistricting should be cool, too.
I thought it pretty weird that Clarke was spelled with an 'e', especially since I guessed it was name for William Clark.  So I did a little bit of googling.  It was originally named Clark, when Oregon Territory created two counties north of the Columbia River.  The other was Lewis.  The 1850 Census for "Washington" is based on these two counties.

In 1853, an error by a clerk transformed Clark into Clarke County, and the name stuck until 1924.  I'm not sure if this was before or after Washington Territory was split off.

I have a census history of county population which shows the source counties for new counties, and it showed that all the counties from Whatcom to Thurston were formed from both Lewis and Clark counties.  So I spent some more time trying to find some old maps.

Incidentally, there is a musical group Lewis & Clarke, but they claim to be named after C.S. Lewis and Arthur C. Clarke.

I eventually found this animation:

Washington Counties 1844 — 1911

As you can see, Lewis was the western county, and Clark was the eastern county, but the boundary was not the Cascade crest, but a north/south line to its west.   Soon counties were created from Lewis County on either side of Puget Sound and the eastern boundary of Whatcom, Island, King, and Pierce counties was established on the crest.

The SoS office has a bunch of historical maps (high quality scans), as well as an online exhibit of redistricting, which it includes oral histories, newspaper accounts, etc.
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Alcon
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« Reply #574 on: December 04, 2008, 04:23:06 PM »

King County canvass is out a day early.  And I have finals study.

grr!

A quick look-over then I really should focus.
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