Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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Author Topic: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 836928 times)
bgwah
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« Reply #3475 on: July 18, 2012, 11:33:35 AM »
« edited: July 18, 2012, 11:42:20 AM by bgwah »

The Stranger endorsed Ruderman anyway. They also endorsed a crazy person for Lt. Governor (no, not Owen). It'll be interesting to see the Capitol Hill precinct results on that one.

Edit: Just noticed Rob Holland is running for state legislature. I could definitely see him being Smith's successor in the 9th district.
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bgwah
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« Reply #3476 on: July 19, 2012, 01:51:17 AM »

You guys have been quiet and boring lately. Sad

Anyway: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2018719195_toft19.html

Prospects in the 5th LD are looking even better. Smiley
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Alcon
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« Reply #3477 on: July 19, 2012, 04:33:05 AM »

Does anyone have any strong feelings on State Supreme Court Pos. 9?  I'm not a fan of the liberal standard-bearer in that race, but don't know much about Hilyer or McCloud.

It's my last statewide undecided, since Randy Dorn's opponents seem pretty blah.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #3478 on: July 19, 2012, 12:58:32 PM »

Does anyone have any strong feelings on State Supreme Court Pos. 9?  I'm not a fan of the liberal standard-bearer in that race, but don't know much about Hilyer or McCloud.

It's my last statewide undecided, since Randy Dorn's opponents seem pretty blah.

Hm.... No clue. I thought I knew something about McCloud until discovering that it was a woman not a man (whoops!).
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bgwah
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« Reply #3479 on: July 19, 2012, 08:33:30 PM »

A couple of new polls: http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/07/19/new-poll-shows-burner-ahead-in-wa-01

Democracy for America (Burner supporters):
17 Burner
13 DelBene
5 Hobbs
4 Ruderman
1 Rauniyar

Strategies 360
12 Burner
11 DelBene
6 Hobbs
3 Ruderman



I'l consider voting for DelBene if I have to...
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Meeker
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« Reply #3480 on: July 19, 2012, 11:02:57 PM »

Does anyone have any strong feelings on State Supreme Court Pos. 9?  I'm not a fan of the liberal standard-bearer in that race, but don't know much about Hilyer or McCloud.

It's my last statewide undecided, since Randy Dorn's opponents seem pretty blah.

I'm voting for Hilyer. He's the only one with judicial experience besides Sanders and would probably make for his strongest opponent in the general.
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Napoleon
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« Reply #3481 on: July 20, 2012, 12:21:05 AM »

A couple of new polls: http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/07/19/new-poll-shows-burner-ahead-in-wa-01

Democracy for America (Burner supporters):
17 Burner
13 DelBene
5 Hobbs
4 Ruderman
1 Rauniyar

Strategies 360
12 Burner
11 DelBene
6 Hobbs
3 Ruderman



I'l consider voting for DelBene if I have to...

Vote for Burner.  You can't hold losing to Reichert against her.
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Meeker
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« Reply #3482 on: July 20, 2012, 12:28:15 AM »

A couple of new polls: http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/07/19/new-poll-shows-burner-ahead-in-wa-01

Democracy for America (Burner supporters):
17 Burner
13 DelBene
5 Hobbs
4 Ruderman
1 Rauniyar

Strategies 360
12 Burner
11 DelBene
6 Hobbs
3 Ruderman



I'l consider voting for DelBene if I have to...

Vote for Burner.  You can't hold losing to Reichert against her.

We can and we will.
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Napoleon
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« Reply #3483 on: July 20, 2012, 12:30:29 AM »

That is very petty. I can't imagine a different candidate defeating him in either of those elections. Burner is solidly liberal and is willing to take firm stances on the issues that matter.
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bgwah
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« Reply #3484 on: July 20, 2012, 12:33:11 AM »

That is very petty. I can't imagine a different candidate defeating him in either of those elections. Burner is solidly liberal and is willing to take firm stances on the issues that matter.

I sure can. DelBene did better in 2010 than Burner did in 2008... It was probably one of the only swings to the Democrats in 2010. Burner was and is a weak candidate.
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Meeker
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« Reply #3485 on: July 20, 2012, 12:37:58 AM »

^^^ Yup. If DelBene had run in 2006 or 2008 she would've beaten Reichert. Rodney Tom in 2008 may have also had a shot.

I liked Darcy a lot both times she ran before but don't much anymore; I think she's become way too negative and ideological. The most important factor though is that she's not going to be able to beat Koster in November (yes, I know that SurveyUSA poll had her doing the best. That's just because of name recognition.)
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Napoleon
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« Reply #3486 on: July 20, 2012, 12:40:08 AM »

That is very petty. I can't imagine a different candidate defeating him in either of those elections. Burner is solidly liberal and is willing to take firm stances on the issues that matter.

I sure can. DelBene did better in 2010 than Burner did in 2008... It was probably one of the only swings to the Democrats in 2010. Burner was and is a weak candidate.

DelBene did worse than Burner did in 2006. Reichert always wins with low 50s, just like Gerlach in PA-6. The challenging candidate doesn't matter much.
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Meeker
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« Reply #3487 on: July 20, 2012, 12:41:05 AM »

That is very petty. I can't imagine a different candidate defeating him in either of those elections. Burner is solidly liberal and is willing to take firm stances on the issues that matter.

I sure can. DelBene did better in 2010 than Burner did in 2008... It was probably one of the only swings to the Democrats in 2010. Burner was and is a weak candidate.

DelBene did worse than Burner did in 2006. Reichert always wins with low 50s, just like Gerlach in PA-6. The challenging candidate doesn't matter much.

The national climates of 2006 and 2010 were a bit different...
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Napoleon
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« Reply #3488 on: July 20, 2012, 12:41:39 AM »
« Edited: July 20, 2012, 12:49:04 AM by President Napoleon »

^^^ Yup. If DelBene had run in 2006 or 2008 she would've beaten Reichert. Rodney Tom in 2008 may have also had a shot.

I liked Darcy a lot both times she ran before but don't much anymore; I think she's become way too negative and ideological. The most important factor though is that she's not going to be able to beat Koster in November (yes, I know that SurveyUSA poll had her doing the best. That's just because of name recognition.)
Fair enough. Negative and ideological don't turn me off too much and the new district as I understand gave Obama a decent margin but is swingier down ballot.

The national climates of 2006 and 2010 were a bit different...

I consider this argument a fallacy...yes it can account for some races, but I don't think it can be tossed around the way it is on this site. For example Dan Lungren got 60% in 206 and only 50% in 2010. A similar district to Reichert's would be PA-6, where Gerlach regularly gets low 50s no matter the opponent. District specific issues like the rumors about Reichert's health could also be a factor, so I think you're being a bit unfair, if not completely aversive to the big picture. I'd like to know what traits would make DelBene a stronger candidate otherwise.
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bgwah
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« Reply #3489 on: July 20, 2012, 01:00:55 AM »
« Edited: July 20, 2012, 01:03:21 AM by bgwah »

And while Burner is liberal, so is Ruderman (and especially Rauniyar, but nobody really cares about him). And I'd consider DelBene left of center. Hobbs is the moderate Democrat.

Ruderman is my preferred pick, as she's a solid progressive with legislative experience and a track record of winning swing districts. But I can settle on DelBene as the anti-Burner if necessary (I'll be keeping a close eye on polling).

Why is DelBene stronger? She's a self-funder, which definitely helps. She also has some experience, like heading the state department of revenue, while Darcy still has nothing. She also just comes off across much more sane and reasonable sounding than Burner does.
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #3490 on: July 20, 2012, 01:13:03 AM »

I'd like to know what traits would make DelBene a stronger candidate otherwise.

While I hesitate to draw too many conclusions from recent polling, the PPP poll showed DelBene doing five points better with independents than Burner in spite of lower name recognition.  Burner does better with Democrats.  The new WA-01 was specifically drawn as a swing district.  If this was a race in WA-07 I'd be for Burner.  But it isn't. 
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Alcon
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« Reply #3491 on: July 20, 2012, 06:37:38 AM »

Napoleon, I think the most damning piece of evidence there is that Reichert was the only Republican congressman (who I'm aware of) to lose vote share between 2008 and 2010.

***

The SUSA poll also shows:

Attorney General
Ferguson (D) 37%
Dunn (R) 37%

U.S. Senate
Cantwell (D) 51%
Baumgartner (R) 40%

Still nothing on the SUSA web site.

Ballots will be arriving statewide between yesterday and Monday.
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Napoleon
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« Reply #3492 on: July 20, 2012, 09:52:31 AM »

Napoleon, I think the most damning piece of evidence there is that Reichert was the only Republican congressman (who I'm aware of) to lose vote share between 2008 and 2010.


I would explain that by pointing to the rumors of brain damage and all that but if you guys don't think that had an impact..
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bgwah
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« Reply #3493 on: July 20, 2012, 11:41:08 AM »

Napoleon, I think the most damning piece of evidence there is that Reichert was the only Republican congressman (who I'm aware of) to lose vote share between 2008 and 2010.


I would explain that by pointing to the rumors of brain damage and all that but if you guys don't think that had an impact..

It really didn't...
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Meeker
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« Reply #3494 on: July 20, 2012, 11:57:42 AM »

Most voters had no idea of anything involving that story. What narrowed the margin was DelBene's effective television ads and campaigning.
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Napoleon
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« Reply #3495 on: July 20, 2012, 03:36:17 PM »

OK. If you all don't think Burner can win then it makes sense not to support her. Still I would prefer to see her win the primary and the general.
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Alcon
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« Reply #3496 on: July 20, 2012, 05:14:53 PM »
« Edited: July 20, 2012, 05:22:13 PM by Alcon »

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2012/07/20/friday-briefing-obamas-lead-in-washington-narrows-a-bit-polls-on-marijuanal-charters-same-sex-marriage/

Charter schools at 46%
Gay marriage at 50% (indicates probably +5 or so)
Two-thirds majority at 56%

They don't give No numbers.  Super helpful!
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Meeker
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« Reply #3497 on: July 20, 2012, 06:56:02 PM »

It's like she's trying to lose: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/07/20/1112130/-An-adult-conversation-about-guns
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Alcon
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« Reply #3498 on: July 20, 2012, 07:45:30 PM »


"It’s time we had an adult conversation about guns in this country. The NRA can go to hell."

sigh
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bgwah
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« Reply #3499 on: July 20, 2012, 10:27:20 PM »

Perfect example of why she's not a good fit for this district.
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