Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Alcon]

Any thoughts on why that race wasn't close?  The map is super-partisan, even if some of the Eastern Washington GOP counties (Okanogan especially) were quite close.  I'm surprised that Sanders went down so hard, and it was really polarized too for how low-profile the race was.

[Meeker]

When the only guidance for low information Democratic voters is gender...

[Meeker]

Here's a photo album of Jaime Herrera Beutler and two pugs: http://photo.kochfoto.com/Portraits/CBLPI/Jaime-Herrera-Beutler-2011/17562319_3T5tWK#!i=1337290823&k=RgwmnJr

[Alcon]

Turnout hit 80% today.

Benton (R) +104
Stonier (D) +100

***

Current results:

Same-sex marriage (Approved +7.10%)
Approved 53.55%
Rejected 46.45%

Charter schools (Yes +1.40%)
Yes 50.70%
No 49.30%

Marijuana legalization (Yes +11.26%)
Yes 55.63%
No 44.37%

President (Obama +14.62%)
Obama 56.05%
Romney 41.43%

U.S. Senate (Cantwell +20.70%)
Cantwell 60.35%
Baumgartner 39.65%

[Meeker]

Inslee is at 51.45% and the only counties with more than 1000 ballots outstanding are King, Snohomish, Thurston and Whatcom (all counties he won). Could he get above 51.5 and thus with rounding 52-48?

[LastVoter]

Can anybody make by-precint maps of gay marriage/marijuana legalization of Eastern Washington county with a large Hispanic population?

[bgwah]

Inslee is at 51.45% and the only counties with more than 1000 ballots outstanding are King, Snohomish, Thurston and Whatcom (all counties he won). Could he get above 51.5 and thus with rounding 52-48?

Inslee would need to win the remaining ballots by a margin of 58-42. Based on what's left, I'm guessing he'll win the remaining ballots with 55 or 56%. So it probably won't happen, but who knows how accurate the ballots remaining numbers are.

At least Obama rounds to +15 now.

[Alcon]

Can anybody make by-precint maps of gay marriage/marijuana legalization of Eastern Washington county with a large Hispanic population?

Neither Franklin nor Yakima have precinct results out yet

The only heavily Hispanic town with results posted is Mattawa (63% Reject on R-74, don't have pot returns yet)

[CultureKing]

Here's a photo album of Jaime Herrera Beutler and two pugs: http://photo.kochfoto.com/Portraits/CBLPI/Jaime-Herrera-Beutler-2011/17562319_3T5tWK#!i=1337290823&k=RgwmnJr

Ugh... she needs more than just token opposition. I still can't  believe that she's actually a representative.

[Alcon]

Results for Evergreen State College (plus a neighboring, student-heavy apartment complex):

Obama 225
Stein 26
Romney 13
Johnson 5
Anderson 3

lawl.

[Meeker]

Inslee's up to 51.52% - fingers crossed!

[bgwah]

http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2019735661_politicsnw22m.html

"Up Front with Robert Mak" has been cancelled

[Meeker]

https://www.facebook.com/SaveUpFrontWithRobertMakOnKing5

[Seattle]

Very dissapointing that Up Front will be cancelled. Oh well.

I wonder if there are any precincts in Seattle where Stein outperformed Romney?

[Alcon]

While I'm in a food coma: Kitsap County, R-74, non-final results



That big 90% No precinct only has 2 votes, and the tiny precinct within it only has a mobile home park

[Seattle]

Wonderful! Bremerton suburbs =

[Alcon]

R-74, Spokane County

[Alcon]

R-74, Whatcom County.  As always, the contrast between Dutch Calvinist Land and Bellingham makes for fun times.



Newhalem, the small company town for Seattle City Light off the map up in the mountains, voted 20-13 Approved.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Results for Evergreen State College (plus a neighboring, student-heavy precinct):

Obama 225
Stein 26
Romney 13
Johnson 5
Anderson 3

lawl.

If Portland had smaller precincts, Reed's precinct would be even worse for Romney (10 at the most).

[Alcon]

It'll be interesting to see other college precincts.  So far, the Western Washington University precincts had above-average Stein performance but still well behind Romney, and with proportionately more Johnson votes.  Evergreen (and parts of Olympia itself) has a history of having a ~5% floor for Green Party candidates, even in Presidential races.  My guess is that most liberal arts universities will show higher Romney performances...there are just probably more ancestrally Republican and arch-Christian students than hardcore Greenies, stereotypes aside.  I know it was that way at my "ultra-liberal" school.

The closest in Whatcom County was a precinct near WWU, in the Sehome neighborhood, that voted 80% Obama, 10% Romney, 9% Other (a mix of Stein, Johnson, and some Rocky Anderson.)

[bgwah]

Results for Evergreen State College (plus a neighboring, student-heavy precinct):

Obama 225
Stein 26
Romney 13
Johnson 5
Anderson 3

lawl.

If Portland had smaller precincts, Reed's precinct would be even worse for Romney (10 at the most).

Sure it would, champ.

[Alcon]

Former GOP Chris Vance posted this analysis, which argued that voter turnout in 2012 was down among conservatives and rural votes but up among liberal urbanites.  I'm not sure I totally believe his numbers, especially about depressed GOP turnout, but it's pretty obvious that turnout in progressive urban areas was very high -- basically the only area in the state to match 2008 as a percentage of RVs.

Areas in blue area parts of Seattle; areas in green are parts of King County.  Especially impressive is that Capitol Hill, the biggest LGBT/young area of Seattle, which is full of apartments with frequent turnover, beat the crap out of affluent suburban areas full of older voters on the Eastside.  The only areas in Seattle that didn't have top-tier turnout are minority-heavy areas and downtown precincts (where turnout is dragged down badly by a mix of minority areas and homeless shelters.)

West Seattle: 87.93%
Magnolia: 87.84%
Inner North Seattle: 87.79%
Capitol Hill: 87.01%
Vashon Island: 87.00%
Medina (highest turnout Seattle suburb): 86.90%
Queen Anne: 85.95%
Far North Seattle: 84.60%
City of Seattle: 84.31%
Central Seattle: 84.25%
Whatcom County: 83.42%
Eastside (wealthy Seattle suburbs): 82.49%
Shoreline: 82.36%
Bellevue: 82.34%
Benton County: 82.20%
Redmond: 82.14%
Kitsap County: 81.91%
Spokane County: 81.28%
State: 81.10%
Snohomish County: 80.52%
Thurston County: 79.99%
Clark County: 79.51%
Pierce County: 78.87%
Des Moines: 78.82%
Burien: 78.78%
Rainier Valley: 78.52%
Renton: 77.98%
Downtown Seattle: 77.45%
Kent: 77.38%
Des Moines: 76.70%
South-Central Seattle: 76.33%
Yakima County: 73.65%
SeaTac: 73.44%
Tukwila: 72.70%

[Alcon]

It looks like Thurston County didn't fix the screw-up with Evergreen's precinct I told them about, and included a subdivision a mile away that's full of olds.  That would explain why there are so many Reject R-74 votes...so Stein probably really clobbered Romney there, considering that the subdivision alone includes 6 identified Republicans.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Here's Tim Eyeman's intitiative in my hometown of Bellingham:




Only 51.89% of our electorate voted against in, compared to 53% or so last time. 

[Alcon]

Here's Tim Eyeman's intitiative in my hometown of Bellingham:




Only 51.89% of our electorate voted against in, compared to 53% or so last time. 

I think college students tend to be low-information voters, and low-information liberals seem to vote Yes on Eyman stuff much more often.  You'll notice that the stand-out "Yes" precincts among the "No" are actually the WWU campus and surrounding, student-heavy precincts.  WWU itself wasn't even that close:

245 (Western Washington University): Yes 370, No 260 (59% Yes)
252 (Fairhaven College at WWU): Yes 138, No 113 (55% Yes)

Nice map, by the way!