Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Seattle]

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Lololol. Since when does Eastgate count as a modest neignborhood?

[bgwah]

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Lololol. Since when does Eastgate count as a modest neignborhood?

Well, by Eastside standards...

[Alcon]

Interesting map, and not what I expected:

[CultureKing]

probably not the right place for this, but...

WE HAVE THE SONICS BACK!!!

[Cobbler]

probably not the right place for this, but...

WE HAVE THE SONICS BACK!!!

It's about time!

[Alcon]

Well, it's real quiet in here, so random factoid.  Seattle's precinct 43-1782 is almost entirely the Horizon House retirement home community.  The precinct has an average voter age of 84.  Check out the results:

President: 82% Obama
Governor: 75% Inslee
Gay marriage: 83% Approved
Pot: 80% Yes
Supreme Court: 83% McCloud

There's some seriously liberal old people

[bgwah]

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2013/02/04/about-30-people-apply-for-open-port-of-seattle-seat/

Gregoire's daughter going to get more involved in politics?

[Seattle]

Could someone do an Obama-Cantwell-Inslee precinct comparison of Yakima County?

[CultureKing]

So.... This thread was on the second page = not OK.

Anyways how's the whole divided legislative branch thing going?

[Seattle]

We all know, but for those out of state lurkers, former two-term governor and physician-assisted suicide advocate, Booth Gardner died at 76 on the 15th. He was one of Washington's most popular governors and will be missed. RIP.

Here's an article from the NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/19/us/booth-gardner-dies-at-76-ex-washington-governor.html

[Maxwell]

Well, it's real quiet in here, so random factoid.  Seattle's precinct 43-1782 is almost entirely the Horizon House retirement home community.  The precinct has an average voter age of 84.  Check out the results:

President: 82% Obama
Governor: 75% Inslee
Gay marriage: 83% Approved
Pot: 80% Yes
Supreme Court: 83% McCloud

There's some seriously liberal old people

Sounds like my grandparents .

[KingSweden]

Figured I'd check this thread out and see if I could get the discussion up and running again.

Though the interesting WA races aren't til 2016 (Patty Murray and Jay Inslee both facing the voters), what are the current thoughts on 2014? Who are potential targets for both parties in the state house or in CDs? (Only Suzan DelBene comes to mind as being a particularly vulnerable incumbent. Most other seats seem safe).

On another note... how do you suppose the Seattle mayoral election will go down?

[bgwah]

Hopefully McGinn wins. I didn't like him at first but he's grown on me and all of his opponents are awful. We also have a county executive race---I think the only question is whether Constantine hits 70% or not.

Oh, and MEEKER, we need a '13 thread title. Something making fun of Rodney Tom, perhaps?

[publicunofficial]

I'm almost 100% certain that, barring retirements, Washington's congressional delegation will remain the same until next redistricting. DelBene can survive, and unless Reichert or JHB tries to take on Murray or Inslee, there won't be any competitive seats.


All of the action will be focused on Democrats trying to primary Rodney Tom and Tim Sheldon.

[greenforest32]

Is that 4,000 post limit per thread still being enforced or what? And what happened to Meeker?

----

All of the action will be focused on Democrats trying to primary Rodney Tom and Tim Sheldon.

What are their districts like? A primary to them is going to be hard now that Washington has the jungle-primary/top-two system.

Also like you mentioned in the best/worse state parties thread about Kim Wyman being the only statewide elected Republican on the West Coast: what is she like? Would she oppose implementing automatic voter registration?

Compare the Republican Secretary of State in Colorado crying armageddeon on the Democratic state legislature proposing/passing election-day registration to the Democratic Secretary of State in Oregon introducing a bill to implement automatic registration (something that puts election-day registration to shame). I know the WA-GOP Secretary of States aren't known for being hacks but I think a Democrat would be more likely to support automatic voter registration there than some neutral-administrator-ish Republican.

Oregon and Washington really should join up on pushing for this as we're the only two postal voting states

[bgwah]

Sheldon has been doing the conservative Democrat thing for a long time now. His district knows that and has re-elected him numerous times anyway. If we had a partisan primary he would be in trouble, but we don't so he's probably fine. He only won his last bid as Mason County commissioner 54-46 against another Democrat, though. He beat the same woman 63-37 in 2008. So perhaps his popularity is declining. I'm guessing he'll be re-elected.

Tom will have a tougher time. The incumbent Democratic state representative in his district got something like 69% last year. The open seat was won by a Democrat 61-39. Obama won 61-35. Even Inslee won 53-47. I'm guessing he will lose if he runs again.

[KingSweden]

I don't know much about Wyman, but I doubt opposing something like that would do much to help her politically in a state as liberal as WA

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Hi guys, since this thread has a high concentration of fellow Washington posters, I thought I might leave this little tidbit here:

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Be in awe!!!!

[bgwah]

Filing deadline was yesterday!

With Burgess dropping out, it is looking like McGinn vs Murray for Seattle Mayor, with Harrell and Steinbrueck as second tier candidates.

Constantine has no serious opposition and will continue to focus on running for Governor in 2020.

[publicunofficial]

Republican State-Sen. Mike Carrell is dead, triggering a special election.


SD-28 is basically the Tacoma suburbs, and Obama got 54.4% here in 2012. This is a prime pick-up for Democrats, and will dismantle the Tomocracy assuming we hold SD-26.

[smoltchanov]

Republican State-Sen. Mike Carrell is dead, triggering a special election.


SD-28 is basically the Tacoma suburbs, and Obama got 54.4% here in 2012. This is a prime pick-up for Democrats, and will dismantle the Tomocracy assuming we hold SD-26.

Well, as i have read on DKE - election in SD-28 will be held in 2014 (until then - republican appointment) and keeping SD-26 (especially in non-presidential year) may be tall order..

[KingSweden]

If the D's could hold SD-26 in 2010, they can hold it in 2014. Granted, I'm not sure how significantly different it was redrawn from the old map and if Schlichter is as good of a politician as Kilmer.

SD-28 should be a pickup OPPORTUNITY, as should a handful of other seats:

-SD-41 is south Bellevue and Mercer Island and parts of Renton; D's at least have a fighting chance here, especially with a conservative-inclined candidate
-SD-42 includes most of Bellingham, but also northern Whatcom County. Fighting chance here too.

Tom, of course, is vulnerable in a primary and you can bet the D's will spend hard to oust him here. Those are the only three pickups I can think of. Not sure where on the map there's a vulnerable D outside of the Olympic Peninsula and maybe Andy Billig in Spokane.

[publicunofficial]

If the D's could hold SD-26 in 2010, they can hold it in 2014. Granted, I'm not sure how significantly different it was redrawn from the old map and if Schlichter is as good of a politician as Kilmer.

SD-28 should be a pickup OPPORTUNITY, as should a handful of other seats:

-SD-41 is south Bellevue and Mercer Island and parts of Renton; D's at least have a fighting chance here, especially with a conservative-inclined candidate
-SD-42 includes most of Bellingham, but also northern Whatcom County. Fighting chance here too.

Tom, of course, is vulnerable in a primary and you can bet the D's will spend hard to oust him here. Those are the only three pickups I can think of. Not sure where on the map there's a vulnerable D outside of the Olympic Peninsula and maybe Andy Billig in Spokane.

The Olympic Peninsula is safe so long as Hargrove doesn't retire. He's popular around here, and even the ultra-liberals like myself who hate the way he votes on social issues realize that he's one of the few who can hold the seat.

[bgwah]

Litzow (41) won't be up again until 2016.

Hill (45) could potentially be vulnerable, but he's been unoffensive and a good match for the Eastside on social issues, so I would expect him to be re-elected.

Tom (48) is definitely vulnerable. His district is actually fairly liberal, and even voted for Inslee by six points.

Republicans will be favored in 26 with Angel running, IMO. They will get this seat in the special later this year.

28 will be a good pick-up opportunity for Democrats, but Carrell died late enough in the year to avoid a special in 2013.

So I would guess that the Senate will go to 26-23 R later this year. Democrats will have to take the 28th and 48th to have a chance of re-taking it in 2014. And of course this is all very pre-mature, there will be specific races that we don't recognize as competitive until the election nears...