Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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Author Topic: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 836909 times)
Alcon
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« Reply #4550 on: November 15, 2013, 02:02:50 PM »

It'll probably pass next time.  Hopefully they'll bring it up again in a less inane form, but considering their ultimate goal is probably a GMO ban, I doubt it.

In other news, Kshama Sawant is pretty obviously going to win, and SeaTac Prop. 1 had a good night last night, so it's back in the "likely win" column -- although it's only about a 50-vote margin, so a bad night tonight could throw it off.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #4551 on: November 17, 2013, 02:51:29 AM »

It'll probably pass next time.  Hopefully they'll bring it up again in a less inane form, but considering their ultimate goal is probably a GMO ban, I doubt it.

In other news, Kshama Sawant is pretty obviously going to win, and SeaTac Prop. 1 had a good night last night, so it's back in the "likely win" column -- although it's only about a 50-vote margin, so a bad night tonight could throw it off.

Wow... I-522 wound up pulling ahead in Island, Snohomish, Kitsap and Clallam counties. In the end will probably only fail by about a 51-49 margin.

So would you give it about a 60% chance of passing in a larger turnout election?
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Alcon
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« Reply #4552 on: November 18, 2013, 08:00:34 PM »

^^^ Yeah, something like that.  Demographic trends are also with the "Yes" side -- young voters (even fairly conservative ones) supported I-522 at fairly strong rates.

SeaTac Proposition 1 ($15 minimum wage) remains up by 46 votes. The difference? Yesterday, there were ballots left to count. After today, there may not even be 46 ballots left to count (except for challenged ballots, which can be "cured" until certification on the 26th.) In other words, it looks like this is over.

Yes 2,995 (+59)
No 2,949 (+59)

The short story is that there are not enough ballots left to change this result. The long version is this:

King County won't update their ballot return page until 8 PM. However, as of last night, 6,202 SeaTac ballots were on-hand, of which 6,033 were verified as ready to count. They had counted 6,046 as of today. That means that all ballots have been counted. The only ones that could be counted after today are challenged ballots that are cleared, or insanely late ballots (hard to imagine there'll be more than a half-dozen of these.)

Even if all ~150 of these ballots were cleared, "No" would have to win them by a 2-to-1 clip. That appears to be basically impossible. That's a lot of "basically impossible." In media terms, it's time to call this for Yes.
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Meeker
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« Reply #4553 on: November 19, 2013, 04:39:38 PM »

http://www.kirotv.com/news/news/seattle-city-councilmember-elect-shares-radical-id/nbxbC/

Oh my God this is going to be the most entertaining few years ever
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bgwah
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« Reply #4554 on: November 19, 2013, 09:20:22 PM »

“We can re-tool the machines to produce mass transit like buses, instead of destructive, you know, war machines,” she told KIRO 7.

Oh my.
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Alcon
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« Reply #4555 on: November 20, 2013, 11:20:11 PM »

yeah.  It's hard for me to imagine she's that f-ing ridiculous, considering she's a relatively respected Economics professor.  I'm pretty frustrated this is how Seattle chose to "shake things up."

"war machines."
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RI
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« Reply #4556 on: November 21, 2013, 12:40:29 AM »

Sawant did her (not terribly impressive, but fairly orthodox) dissertation on South Asian economic development, not on public, monetary, or labor economics. Specialization is hugely important in doctoral-level economics; an economist who studies industrial organization, for example, should not be assumed to be highly knowledgeable about international trade or environmental economics or vice versa. She has done little economic research otherwise, and hasn't, to the best of my knowledge, held a research-based academic position. I doubt she has done empirical studies to support most of her political positions; rather, he biography seems to indicate that she started economics to question economic inequality. While she may be intelligent, she doesn't appear to be terribly influenced by academic (empirical or theoretical) research on areas she speaks so loudly on, but rather almost purely by ideology.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #4557 on: November 21, 2013, 07:15:04 AM »
« Edited: November 22, 2013, 02:04:01 AM by Hnv1 »

Well as a trotskyist (sawant) that is exactly what her ideology espouses, with that said she as many people left to socialism understand economic rules as man made that could be altered accordingly (that is why Trotskyism emphasise the permanent revolution and global socialist change and such).

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #4558 on: November 21, 2013, 02:06:36 PM »

Anyone would think you people had never had a conversation with a Trot before... Tongue
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #4559 on: November 21, 2013, 03:30:47 PM »

Trots in Portland are the worst and always wear flatcaps even though they have no relation to the European working class.
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Meeker
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« Reply #4560 on: November 22, 2013, 02:07:09 PM »

KING 5 via The Stranger

"Here's what I think is so amazing: You're this little girl in India, and before you know it, you're on your way to being a city council person. Is that surprising?"

"What caste were you?"

"Will you end your sentences more quickly? 'Cause you are a talker."

"What do you have against corporations? What do you have against millionaires?"

http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2013/11/22/king-5s-linda-brill-interviews-kshama-sawant
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Alcon
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« Reply #4561 on: November 26, 2013, 05:57:07 PM »
« Edited: December 03, 2013, 02:00:01 PM by Grad Students are the Worst »

I don't have final results for King or Wahkiakum County, but here are the best and worst showings for Initiative 522 (GMO labeling.)  Neither list is a surprise.  Crunchy progressives vs. farmers.

Langley - 74.46%
Port Townsend - 74.41%
Index - 73.91%
Seattle - 70.77%
Nespelem - 67.74%
Bellingham - 66.76%
Bainbridge Island - 65.50%
Twisp - 64.24%
Olympia - 62.91%
Friday Harbor - 62.89%
...
Odessa - 20.07%
Waitsburg - 19.88%
Pomeroy - 19.77%
Royal City - 19.15%
Colfax - 18.55%
Oakesdake - 18.18%
LaCrosse - 17.14%
St. John - 15.89%
Mansfield - 15.74%
Colton - 15.52%
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Alcon
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« Reply #4562 on: November 27, 2013, 05:25:14 PM »
« Edited: December 03, 2013, 01:59:24 PM by Grad Students are the Worst »

Still missing King and Wahkiakum for now, but here are the best/worst results for Eyman's I-517 (initiative about initiatives.)  Small towns in Eastern Washington top the "Yes" list, while Seattle suburbs top the "No" list, even before any results from King County (which was 72% No) are in.

Nespelem - 70.00%
Granger - 69.23%
Latah - 67.95%
Tieton - 67.35%
George - 66.67%
Marcus - 66.25%
Springdale - 65.15%
Wapato - 64.74%
Hatton - 63.64%
Northport - 63.37%
...
Normandy Park - 27.07%
Brier - 26.93%
Langley - 26.73%
Olympia - 25.75%
Mercer Island - 24.30%
Lake Forest Park - 24.00%
Bainbridge Island - 23.58%
Hunts Point - 22.56%
Seattle - 20.87%
Yarrow Point - 20.35%
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Alcon
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« Reply #4563 on: November 27, 2013, 05:32:34 PM »

King County turnout map:

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Meeker
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« Reply #4564 on: November 27, 2013, 05:38:27 PM »

Green is above average and red is below average?
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bgwah
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« Reply #4565 on: November 28, 2013, 04:50:38 PM »

Did they release turnout by precinct before the actual election results by precinct? Strange.

It seems to follow fairly predictable patterns. High-turnout in Seatac definitely sticks out, though. I'm also a little curious why turnout in the Maple Valley area was so high. They must have had some important local election the rest of us didn't care about.
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bgwah
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« Reply #4566 on: November 28, 2013, 11:35:14 PM »

Nice maps... Do you have a color scale?
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Alcon
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« Reply #4567 on: November 29, 2013, 06:12:54 PM »

Unfortunately, the software crashes whenever I try to add it.  Yellow is 50%.  Intervals of 5 from there.  I'll try to re-do them with the scale added ASAP.
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Meeker
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« Reply #4568 on: November 29, 2013, 06:15:03 PM »

How many Murray/Sawant precincts were there?
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Alcon
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« Reply #4569 on: November 29, 2013, 06:28:52 PM »

How many Murray/Sawant precincts were there?

188/952 precincts were Murray/Sawant.  The most extreme vote-splitting was in a precinct on Cap Hill, 54% Murray and 77% Sawant.
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Meeker
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« Reply #4570 on: November 29, 2013, 06:30:59 PM »

Does the McGinn/Sawant-Murray/Conlin divide look pretty much like the McGinn-Mallahan split from four years ago?
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LastVoter
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« Reply #4571 on: November 29, 2013, 06:32:40 PM »

Capitol Hill has some really terrible precints.
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Alcon
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« Reply #4572 on: November 29, 2013, 06:49:46 PM »

Does the McGinn/Sawant-Murray/Conlin divide look pretty much like the McGinn-Mallahan split from four years ago?

Very much like, with Murray basically winning because he did better with highly socially liberal voters.  Not a big surprise.
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Meeker
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« Reply #4573 on: November 29, 2013, 07:06:33 PM »

Does the McGinn/Sawant-Murray/Conlin divide look pretty much like the McGinn-Mallahan split from four years ago?

Very much like, with Murray basically winning because he did better with highly socially liberal voters.  Not a big surprise.

Sounds right.

As always, great work.
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Meeker
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« Reply #4574 on: November 29, 2013, 07:09:14 PM »

One other: have you had a chance to calculate what percentage Sawant got in her council district?
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