Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Alaska2392]

Point taken - though Wyman is running for SOS, so we are talking about two different races.  I honestly haven't followed the SOS or Treasurer race in depth enough to really make any intelligent comment about who will win or lose.

I just think the Treasurer race shows what the "top 2" primary can do.   It can make a party with less votes overall move two candidates to the general election.  Oh well, I guess you get what you vote for.

[evergreenarbor]

Point taken - though Wyman is running for SOS, so we are talking about two different races.  I honestly haven't followed the SOS or Treasurer race in depth enough to really make any intelligent comment about who will win or lose.

I just think the Treasurer race shows what the "top 2" primary can do.   It can make a party with less votes overall move two candidates to the general election.  Oh well, I guess you get what you vote for.

One of the political science professors I know likes to call those "crapshoot results."

[RI]

Anyone have any insight on how Marty McClendon of all people (who has zero political experience) is leading the LtGov race?

[evergreenarbor]

Split field, maybe? He's only getting 20% of the vote - maybe he has a small number of very dedicated supporters.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Summary of results for tonight:

Senate: Murray leads Vance 53-28. All D's add up to 58.15%, All R's add up to 35.89%. Utterly Safe D.

Governor: Inslee leads Bryant 49-38. All D's add up to 53.64%, All R's add up to 43.33%. Probably not going to flip, but Inslee will probably underperform Hillary by a few points while Murray has a shot of overperforming Hillary.

WA-4: Newhouse has the 1st slot, but the 2nd slot is close - Didier (R) leads McKinley (D) by under 3k votes. Worth watching the late ballots.

WA-7: Utterly Despicable. Jayapal (Socialist) easily wins the first slot. Whoever ultimately wins out for the 2nd slot between McDermott (D) and Walkinshaw (D) - McDermott leads by 586 votes atm - needs to run an aggressive campaign - America must be shown that Socialism is not the answer.

WA-8: Reichert has the 1st slot, but the 2nd slot is close - Ventrella (D) leads Ramos (D) by about 3500 votes. Worth watching the late ballots.

WA-10: Time to laugh at Politico, who lists Ferguson, who placed third, as a third partier when she's actually a Democrat. Heck (D, inc.) probably doesn't enjoy being under 50%, but the cumulative D vote adds up to 59.51% to 36.94% for the only republican. He's fine for November.

Sec. State: Wyman ahead 48-46 so far. She hasn't locked down the first slot, but she has it for now. Watch the late ballots.

Treasurer: R vs. R, barring a late surge for Comerford

Auditor: The Republican placed first, but the two democrats add to 52.13% to 37.43% for the only republican. McCarthy (D) has the 2nd slot and should be okay in November.

Attorney General: Time to laugh at R's for not even running a candidate for an office they held before the 2012 elections. Ferguson (D, inc.) easily defeated a Libertarian and will do so again in November.

[Seattle]

All the Senate Ds combined gets 49.54% of the vote in Walla Walla county. Will be interesting to see if Murray can pick it up.

[publicunofficial]

Anyone have any insight on how Marty McClendon of all people (who has zero political experience) is leading the LtGov race?

He's the only Republican with a visible campaign, and he has a small following from his radio show. He ran in the 6th District last cycle and got whupped, and that is more experience than the other Republicans running for Lt. Governor.

Anyway, tonight was good aside from the stupid Treasurer race. Top 2 is stupid.

Other notes:

-Jayapal looks to be the strong favorite in the 7th, regardless of whether it's McDermott or Walkinshaw she's facing. Sorry Wulfric ((((

-Glad Habib looks to be making to the general as of now. Lt. Gov is a useless position, but it gives Habib the platform to set himself up for a run at a bigger office.

-F**k Tony Ventrella.

[smoltchanov]

Top 2 is marvellous. May be now Democrats will learn finally - which number of candidatates they must run without risk of losing. Mathematics here is not that difficult (state that as professional mathematician))))

BTW - 2 Republicans got almost 49% of Treasurer vote, so - candidates must be not that bad))))

[publicunofficial]

Top 2 is marvellous. May be now Democrats will learn finally - which number of candidatates they must run without risk of losing. Mathematics here is not that difficult (state that as professional mathematician))))

BTW - 2 Republicans got almost 49% of Treasurer vote, so - candidates must be not that bad))))

So the Democratic party should try to push any extra Democrats out of the race should they enter? I'm sure the base will love that.

[mds32]

Well the fact of the matter is now the GOP of Washington will have 2 (if Wyman wins) statewide officeholders again. Barring a huge surge for one of the Democrats. It isn't really the Democrats fault here, obviously the GOP candidates had (under the radar) very good campaigns since they are taking up a larger share of the vote than the SOS race. Nevertheless it is an unwanted loss for the Democrats in a state where since 2008 we have seen them lose more than gain ground.

Since 2008 the Democrats have picked up the AG office.
Since 2008 the Republicans have picked up the Treasurer office, State Senate, 2 votes away in the State House.

[smoltchanov]

Top 2 is marvellous. May be now Democrats will learn finally - which number of candidatates they must run without risk of losing. Mathematics here is not that difficult (state that as professional mathematician))))

BTW - 2 Republicans got almost 49% of Treasurer vote, so - candidates must be not that bad))))

So the Democratic party should try to push any extra Democrats out of the race should they enter? I'm sure the base will love that.

I don't care about "base". Neither Democratic, nor Republican. Personally they may be finest people, but as a group i dislike it immensely....

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Top 2 is marvellous. May be now Democrats will learn finally - which number of candidatates they must run without risk of losing. Mathematics here is not that difficult (state that as professional mathematician))))

BTW - 2 Republicans got almost 49% of Treasurer vote, so - candidates must be not that bad))))

So the Democratic party should try to push any extra Democrats out of the race should they enter? I'm sure the base will love that.

I don't care about "base". Neither Democratic, nor Republican. Personally they may be finest people, but as a group i dislike it immensely....

Ironically enough, top two primaries hurt the beloved "Mavericks" in favour of bland people pleaders.

[Kingpoleon]

This title has been annoying me for a long time.

[KingSweden]

All the Senate Ds combined gets 49.54% of the vote in Walla Walla county. Will be interesting to see if Murray can pick it up.

A looooooooot of Westsiders moving there to retire/drink lots of wine/run wineries. Wouldn't be surprised if it trends left pretty sharply in the next decade

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Walkinshaw takes the lead for WA-7 2nd slot after the first day of late ballot counting.

Also, Wyman is still up 48-46.

[smoltchanov]

Top 2 is marvellous. May be now Democrats will learn finally - which number of candidatates they must run without risk of losing. Mathematics here is not that difficult (state that as professional mathematician))))

BTW - 2 Republicans got almost 49% of Treasurer vote, so - candidates must be not that bad))))

So the Democratic party should try to push any extra Democrats out of the race should they enter? I'm sure the base will love that.

I don't care about "base". Neither Democratic, nor Republican. Personally they may be finest people, but as a group i dislike it immensely....

Ironically enough, top two primaries hurt the beloved "Mavericks" in favour of bland people pleaders.

Disagree. Under "normal" primary system we would get only far-far-left Democrats and far-far-right Republicans in Washington state, just s we get them elsewhere. We mostly get them under top 2 as well, but variaty is still somewhat greater..

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Update: Clint Didier can now be projected to win the 2nd slot in WA-4. Still too close to call for the 2nd slots in the 7th and the 8th.

It appears that Inslee will be held to a single digit margin once everything is in

Wyman's margin isn't 48%-46% anymore - it's 49%-45% now!

Treasurer is clearly going to be R vs R. Democrats not catching up at all.

[Ebowed]

Thanks to our state's wonderful top 2 primary the Treasurer race (at least according to SOS website) is R v R at the current moment.  3 Democrats splitting the vote and 2 Republicans splitting the vote.

Dang it WA.  I was so looking forward to finally achieving the WA, OR, CA no Republican elected to statewide office.

Which one is worse?  I don't really know what I'm supposed to do where an election has two options that are both Republicans.  That seems like a cruel joke.

[Alaska2392]

Just out of curiosity what is up with these people running from the "Independent" Democratic Party.

Are these people who want to join in the coalition thing with the Republicans in the legislature? Or are they just saying that because they think it will get them more votes to label themselves as "independent"?

[bgwah]

Two party breakdown for King County (US Senate race):
Seattle: 88-12 Democrat
Suburbs: 65-35 Democrat
Total: 74-26 Democrat

Yes, you read that right. King County was 65% Democrat without Seattle.

[RI]

Two party breakdown for King County (US Senate race):
Seattle: 88-12 Democrat
Suburbs: 65-35 Democrat
Total: 74-26 Democrat

Yes, you read that right. King County was 65% Democrat without Seattle.

Eh, the Senate race isn't really that competitive though.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Two party breakdown for King County (US Senate race):
Seattle: 88-12 Democrat
Suburbs: 65-35 Democrat
Total: 74-26 Democrat

Yes, you read that right. King County was 65% Democrat without Seattle.

Republicans basically conceded the senate race months ago.

[KingSweden]

Two party breakdown for King County (US Senate race):
Seattle: 88-12 Democrat
Suburbs: 65-35 Democrat
Total: 74-26 Democrat

Yes, you read that right. King County was 65% Democrat without Seattle.

King County has to be where Democrats take back the Senate. Litzow (though I like him), Fain, Miloscia and Hill should all be the top targets. Easier said than done, of course

[Nyvin]

Bleh....Stupid five way race for Treasurer,   what a mess.

http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/State-Treasurer.html

If you take any one of the three Dems out the other two would win easily,  possibly even shutting the two Republicans out.   

Looks like the GOP gets an easy pickup this year,   the WA Dems better win that SoS office!

[Kingpoleon]

Bleh....Stupid five way race for Treasurer,   what a mess.

http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/State-Treasurer.html

If you take any one of the three Dems out the other two would win easily,  possibly even shutting the two Republicans out.   

Looks like the GOP gets an easy pickup this year,   the WA Dems better win that SoS office!

It's a little ironic that you used the SoS site as a source...