Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Seattle]

May be my wishful thinking, but I think that Moon could also do well with late returns. Almost regretting my Farrell vote, but she's keeping it reasonably close.

[KingSweden]

May be my wishful thinking, but I think that Moon could also do well with late returns. Almost regretting my Farrell vote, but she's keeping it reasonably close.

Let's hope

[Crumpets]

May be my wishful thinking, but I think that Moon could also do well with late returns. Almost regretting my Farrell vote, but she's keeping it reasonably close.

Let's hope

Are you guys not Oliver fans?

[KingSweden]

May be my wishful thinking, but I think that Moon could also do well with late returns. Almost regretting my Farrell vote, but she's keeping it reasonably close.

Let's hope

Are you guys not Oliver fans?

I think she's patently unqualified for the office of Mayor (would make an ok Councilwoman I suppose), is hostile to policies that would promote good urbanism to the point of being economically illiterate, and that her campaign is 90% lefty virtue signaling. With more impressive progressives like Moon and Farrel who know what they're talking about a vote for her would be irresponsible.

We're seeing in DC what happens when you elect someone inexperienced in government into a complex job to "send a message"

[Babeuf]

When will the next wave of votes come in?

[Dr. Arch]

When will the next wave of votes come in?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

When will the next wave of votes come in?

Counting is done for tonight. King county should have another update tomorrow at around 4:30 pm pst.

This is a good guide of when future updates will be released:  http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/Turnout.html
  

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

When will the next wave of votes come in?

Take a look at this: http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20170801/Turnout.html

[Seattle]

4:30 PM tomorrow. There's 10,000 ballots that are ready to be tabulated that have not been. Along with another 18,000 that need to verified, plus whatever comes in the mail tomorrow (another 10,000 max probably).

This is something I've noticed since going to all mail in King county. Election day reports tend to actually be more left leaning than the following day, it's the stragglers from day 2-4 after the election that end up again left leaning, though at that point, there are very few actual votes left. I think this stems from the propensity of older, less liberal voters mailing their ballots versus younger ones who drop them off. Those mailed take longer to get there. But who knows, primaries are definitely a different beast.

At least that's the pattern from 2016. So I'm thinking those 10k votes are more left leaning. The next 18k are split, and the following 10k will be similar if not less left leaning.

Eager to see what follows.

[Crumpets]

So I just found this lovely excerpt from an interview between Seattle Weekly and Seattle Mayoral also-ran Alex Tsimerman:

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Also, here is what Wikipedia has to say about also-also-ran Lewis A. Jones:

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[publicunofficial]

Thoughts on the results (Before the final ballots come in):

-Grant-Mosqueda is the ideal run-off situation for the City Council 8 race and I hope it stays. Very happy with whoever would win here, and it's a big victory for the Democracy Voucher program. Eat s**t Nelson.

-Surprised by Moon's finish (As well as Farrell's), her campaign looked dead until the Stranger endorsement. Moon has apparently stated that she will endorse Oliver if the late returns pull her ahead, and I imagine Oliver will do the same. Beating Durkan is the greater good. In any case, Seattle's next mayor will be a woman for the first time.

-Dhingra currently leads Englund 50-42, with left-wing Independent Parker Harris at 6.9%. A very comfortable lead going into the general election.

[publicunofficial]

Also: An Moon and Farrell's strong finishes seem to have come at the expense of Mike McGinn, who had a pathetic showing tonight.

[KingSweden]

So I just found this lovely excerpt from an interview between Seattle Weekly and Seattle Mayoral also-ran Alex Tsimerman:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Also, here is what Wikipedia has to say about also-also-ran Lewis A. Jones:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Municipal elections bring out the craziest loons

[Crumpets]

Thoughts on the results (Before the final ballots come in):

-Grant-Mosqueda is the ideal run-off situation for the City Council 8 race and I hope it stays. Very happy with whoever would win here, and it's a big victory for the Democracy Voucher program. Eat s**t Nelson.

-Surprised by Moon's finish (As well as Farrell's), her campaign looked dead until the Stranger endorsement. Moon has apparently stated that she will endorse Oliver if the late returns pull her ahead, and I imagine Oliver will do the same. Beating Durkan is the greater good. In any case, Seattle's next mayor will be a woman for the first time.

-Dhingra currently leads Englund 50-42, with left-wing Independent Parker Harris at 6.9%. A very comfortable lead going into the general election.

First since 1928. Bertha Knight Landes was Seattle's only female mayor.

[publicunofficial]

Thoughts on the results (Before the final ballots come in):

-Grant-Mosqueda is the ideal run-off situation for the City Council 8 race and I hope it stays. Very happy with whoever would win here, and it's a big victory for the Democracy Voucher program. Eat s**t Nelson.

-Surprised by Moon's finish (As well as Farrell's), her campaign looked dead until the Stranger endorsement. Moon has apparently stated that she will endorse Oliver if the late returns pull her ahead, and I imagine Oliver will do the same. Beating Durkan is the greater good. In any case, Seattle's next mayor will be a woman for the first time.

-Dhingra currently leads Englund 50-42, with left-wing Independent Parker Harris at 6.9%. A very comfortable lead going into the general election.

First since 1928. Bertha Knight Landes was Seattle's only female mayor.

First female mayor anyone can remember

[Seattle]

4:30 PM tomorrow. There's 10,000 ballots that are ready to be tabulated that have not been. Along with another 18,000 that need to verified, plus whatever comes in the mail tomorrow (another 10,000 max probably).

12 PM update: Ballots received increased from 116k to 127k, ballots ready for tabulation increased from 98k to 115k. Ballots tabulated: 89k

So that 4:30 PM update should be at least 26,000 of the remaining 37,000+ left to be counted.

What to look for: Assuming Moon holds her vote share (which I don't think is unreasonable if late votes are indeed left leaning, Oliver is not the only candidate who does well with them), Oliver would need to garner 21.17% of those 26k votes to clinch the second spot tonight.

13,583 15.56%
12,126 13.90% vote difference: 1,457

15.56% of 26k: 4046 ->17629
21.17% of 26k: 5504->17630

[KingSweden]

4:30 PM tomorrow. There's 10,000 ballots that are ready to be tabulated that have not been. Along with another 18,000 that need to verified, plus whatever comes in the mail tomorrow (another 10,000 max probably).

12 PM update: Ballots received increased from 116k to 127k, ballots ready for tabulation increased from 98k to 115k. Ballots tabulated: 89k

So that 4:30 PM update should be at least 26,000 of the remaining 37,000+ left to be counted.

What to look for: Assuming Moon holds her vote share (which I don't think is unreasonable if late votes are indeed left leaning, Oliver is not the only candidate who does well with them), Oliver would need to garner 21.17% of those 26k votes to clinch the second spot tonight.

13,583 15.56%
12,126 13.90% vote difference: 1,457

15.56% of 26k: 4046 ->17629
21.17% of 26k: 5504->17630

Do you think that's likely?

[Beet]

Oliver has very little to make up, which is why I assume she is trading at 3 1/2 times the level of Cary Moon on PredictIt. I will go on a limb and say she will win the GE as well, she will add Moon's support, and will have far more energy & momentum, as the underdog.

[Seattle]

Seems pretty high to me... but who knows!?

[KingSweden]

Seems pretty high to me... but who knows!?

We'll see. If it was November and she was only that far behind Durkan, different story. But since Moon shares a profile on the left and has the Stranger's endorsement... this'll get interesting

[Seattle]

Today's 3:57 vote update:

Total votes: 104,635 (+15,600) out of 127,000 (plus whatever comes today thru friday)
Cary Moon       15.74%   16,168  +.18%
Jessyn Farrell   11.98%   12,307  +.17%
Mike McGinn    7.07%      7,262   -.09%
Jenny Durkan   31.52%   32,376  -.08%
Nikkita Oliver   13.81%   14,190  -.09%
Bob Hasegawa  8.74%     8,973   +.12%

Good results for the urbanist candidates. I think it's fairly safe to say now that Moon has clinched the second spot. Oliver would have to match Durkan's current percentage with the remaining ballots to make up a 2,000 vote deficit.

[KingSweden]

Go Cary!

[publicunofficial]

Hopefully Oliver lives in Bruce Harrell's district.

But yes, for now, go Moon!

[Seattle]

Today's 3:57 vote update:

Total votes: 104,635 (+15,600) out of 127,000 (plus whatever comes today thru friday)
Cary Moon       15.74%   16,168  +.18%
Jessyn Farrell   11.98%   12,307  +.17%
Mike McGinn    7.07%      7,262   -.09%
Jenny Durkan   31.52%   32,376  -.08%
Nikkita Oliver   13.81%   14,190  -.09%
Bob Hasegawa  8.74%     8,973   +.12%

Latest update:

Total votes: 142,556 (+38,000) out of 187,000 (as of the 2 PM update)
Cary Moon       16.72%   23,417  +.98%
Jessyn Farrell   12.44%   17,419  +.46%
Mike McGinn     6.65%     9,316   -.42%
Jenny Durkan   30.19%   42,281  -1.33%
Nikkita Oliver   14.88%   20,839  +1.07%
Bob Hasegawa  8.58%    12,011  -.16%

Moon - Oliver vote % difference same as election night results, but margin has increased to 2,600.

[KingSweden]

I have a hard time seeing Oliver overtake Moon with the last 2 days' drops, but stranger things habe happened