Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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Author Topic: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 837061 times)
KingSweden
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« Reply #5600 on: November 15, 2018, 01:38:13 PM »

I’m fine with +2/3 in the Senate, but only going +7 in the House with so much low hanging fruit is kinda disappointing. I know Podlodowski is digging WADems out of a hole outside of the King/Snoho core but still
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Virginiá
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« Reply #5601 on: November 15, 2018, 01:41:03 PM »

I’m fine with +2/3 in the Senate, but only going +7 in the House with so much low hanging fruit is kinda disappointing. I know Podlodowski is digging WADems out of a hole outside of the King/Snoho core but still

It did seem like it would be better in the primaries.

There's always another shot to deepen the state House/US House ranks in 2020 though.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5602 on: November 15, 2018, 03:59:54 PM »

I’m fine with +2/3 in the Senate, but only going +7 in the House with so much low hanging fruit is kinda disappointing. I know Podlodowski is digging WADems out of a hole outside of the King/Snoho core but still

It did seem like it would be better in the primaries.

There's always another shot to deepen the state House/US House ranks in 2020 though.

A *lot* of these races were knife’s edge in the primary. And we’re winning one that didn’t look close at the time (Fain).

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Seattle
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« Reply #5603 on: November 15, 2018, 04:08:30 PM »

Whipped up a quick map of where pickups stand in the House.

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KingSweden
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« Reply #5604 on: November 15, 2018, 05:16:23 PM »

Polarization: a map

(I’m a bit concerned about the 19th in 2020 tbh)
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5605 on: November 15, 2018, 08:37:06 PM »

Emily Randal netted 76 votes tonight, now leads by 88

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Seattle
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« Reply #5606 on: November 15, 2018, 10:09:56 PM »

500 ballots left in Kitsap, 1,300 in Pierce.
She probably pulls out the win.

Whatcom won't report again until the 24th, so any super late ballots/reconciled rejected ballots will be counted by then. Idk how much of a bump that'll end up being, but it could potentially change the result in LD-42 (Ericksen +58, Van Werven +95).

Dave Paul looks to have secured a win in the 10th. No other races are close enough to be impacted by what's remaining.
But ugh, both D house candidates in the 25th came just short - it reminds me of LD-5 in 2016. While Trump won the 25th in 2016, I think he'll probably lose it come 2020, hopefully Podladowski and co can expand the map here.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5607 on: November 15, 2018, 10:51:45 PM »

Especially since the 25th will have a Senate race too. I hope somebody is researching what’s gone wrong in the last five years in Puyallup, can’t afford any suburban attrition
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #5608 on: November 16, 2018, 12:32:50 AM »

Polarization: a map

(I’m a bit concerned about the 19th in 2020 tbh)

With Hill dead and Fain losing - no Republican from King county at all? Sad. I was never fond about one party dictatorships.
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Seattle
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« Reply #5609 on: November 16, 2018, 12:51:31 AM »

Not quite, LD-31 is half in rural southern King, and a sliver of LD-39 takes the village of Skykomish in the rural north (though that's actually the most D part of that district).
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #5610 on: November 16, 2018, 01:28:56 AM »

Not quite, LD-31 is half in rural southern King, and a sliver of LD-39 takes the village of Skykomish in the rural north (though that's actually the most D part of that district).

Thanks. King county supplied good moderate Republicans in the past (Litzow, Hill, Fain, and before - there were even reasonable Republican members of Seattle city council), the last being David Satterberg, so (pure IMHO, of course) it wouldn't be bad for this tradition to continue...
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5611 on: November 16, 2018, 09:14:27 AM »

Those moderate Repubs did themselves no favors by joining EWA conservatives in their various escapades, though, and forgetting often that they represented King County and not Moses Lake
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #5612 on: November 16, 2018, 10:02:26 AM »

Those moderate Repubs did themselves no favors by joining EWA conservatives in their various escapades, though, and forgetting often that they represented King County and not Moses Lake

Well, i still like Litzow and Hill (slightly less - Fain). And absolutely opposed to 1-party rule everywhere, Democratic as well as Republican.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5613 on: November 16, 2018, 10:13:31 AM »

Those moderate Repubs did themselves no favors by joining EWA conservatives in their various escapades, though, and forgetting often that they represented King County and not Moses Lake

Well, i still like Litzow and Hill (slightly less - Fain). And absolutely opposed to 1-party rule everywhere, Democratic as well as Republican.

I liked Litzow just fine, he seemed like a good man, but you gotta vote your district before you can vote your party
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #5614 on: November 16, 2018, 10:20:47 AM »

Those moderate Repubs did themselves no favors by joining EWA conservatives in their various escapades, though, and forgetting often that they represented King County and not Moses Lake

Well, i still like Litzow and Hill (slightly less - Fain). And absolutely opposed to 1-party rule everywhere, Democratic as well as Republican.

I liked Litzow just fine, he seemed like a good man, but you gotta vote your district before you can vote your party

Sure. District rules))) But, IIRC, Litzow was at least slightly left-of-center. May be with time that became too little for his district..
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Seattle
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« Reply #5615 on: November 27, 2018, 01:34:06 PM »

LD-42 Senate and Position 1, as well as LD-26 Senate will be manually recounted.
All other races will be finalized tonight and I'll hopefully get a map out of some state LD races (actually this time!!!)
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5616 on: November 27, 2018, 04:47:10 PM »

How come Cantwell underperformed so badly? It seems odd she only did 2 points better than Hillary, especially against a sacrificial lamb like Hutchison.
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Seattle
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« Reply #5617 on: November 27, 2018, 06:53:43 PM »

Huge news: Frank Chopp, Dem Speaker of the House will step down from his leadership role at the end of the 2019 session and I’m guessing will likely retire come 2020.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-house-speaker-frank-chopp-plans-to-step-down-from-leadership-role-at-end-of-2019-session/
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #5618 on: November 27, 2018, 10:54:24 PM »

How come Cantwell underperformed so badly? It seems odd she only did 2 points better than Hillary, especially against a sacrificial lamb like Hutchison.

Polarization, as you yourself have said, and as I've pointed out elsewhere. She, Carper, and Feinstein all failed to clear 60%, like they had back in 2012. Chris Murphy in Connecticut fell short of that mark as well.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #5619 on: November 28, 2018, 12:30:47 AM »
« Edited: November 28, 2018, 12:55:57 AM by smoltchanov »

How come Cantwell underperformed so badly? It seems odd she only did 2 points better than Hillary, especially against a sacrificial lamb like Hutchison.

Polarization, as you yourself have said, and as I've pointed out elsewhere. She, Carper, and Feinstein all failed to clear 60%, like they had back in 2012. Chris Murphy in Connecticut fell short of that mark as well.

+100. That's why i say, that observing US elections became simply not interesting. No intrigue. Both in ideological positions of candidates, and results (with rarest exceptions). As "538" formulated: "it's all polarized, predictable and boring"....
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #5620 on: November 28, 2018, 12:37:57 AM »

How come Cantwell underperformed so badly? It seems odd she only did 2 points better than Hillary, especially against a sacrificial lamb like Hutchison.

Polarization, as you yourself have said, and as I've pointed out elsewhere. She, Carper, and Feinstein all failed to clear 60%, like they had back in 2012. Chris Murphy in Connecticut fell short of that mark as well.

I mean, Feinstein was facing another Democrat, so that end of the comparison is not exactly parallel to the rest.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #5621 on: November 28, 2018, 02:02:07 AM »

How come Cantwell underperformed so badly? It seems odd she only did 2 points better than Hillary, especially against a sacrificial lamb like Hutchison.

Polarization, as you yourself have said, and as I've pointed out elsewhere. She, Carper, and Feinstein all failed to clear 60%, like they had back in 2012. Chris Murphy in Connecticut fell short of that mark as well.

I mean, Feinstein was facing another Democrat, so that end of the comparison is not exactly parallel to the rest.

That is true, but De Leon was the de facto Republican in this year's senate race in California. Heavily Republican Lassen and Modoc Counties gave him more than 70% of the vote, and he won all of the other Republican counties in Central and Northern California. Yes, there was a turnout differential in those counties between the Senatorial and Gubernatorial races, but that doesn't change the fact that most Republicans who voted in the Senate race did so for De Leon. Feinstein's numbers also were down considerably in the Bay Area and Los Angeles County from what she got in 2012.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #5622 on: November 28, 2018, 04:03:16 AM »

How come Cantwell underperformed so badly? It seems odd she only did 2 points better than Hillary, especially against a sacrificial lamb like Hutchison.

Polarization, as you yourself have said, and as I've pointed out elsewhere. She, Carper, and Feinstein all failed to clear 60%, like they had back in 2012. Chris Murphy in Connecticut fell short of that mark as well.

I mean, Feinstein was facing another Democrat, so that end of the comparison is not exactly parallel to the rest.

That is true, but De Leon was the de facto Republican in this year's senate race in California. Heavily Republican Lassen and Modoc Counties gave him more than 70% of the vote, and he won all of the other Republican counties in Central and Northern California. Yes, there was a turnout differential in those counties between the Senatorial and Gubernatorial races, but that doesn't change the fact that most Republicans who voted in the Senate race did so for De Leon. Feinstein's numbers also were down considerably in the Bay Area and Los Angeles County from what she got in 2012.

Lassen and Modoc are SO liberal? Or - De Leon is SO conservative?)))))))))))))))))
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #5623 on: November 28, 2018, 04:14:48 AM »

How come Cantwell underperformed so badly? It seems odd she only did 2 points better than Hillary, especially against a sacrificial lamb like Hutchison.

Polarization, as you yourself have said, and as I've pointed out elsewhere. She, Carper, and Feinstein all failed to clear 60%, like they had back in 2012. Chris Murphy in Connecticut fell short of that mark as well.

I mean, Feinstein was facing another Democrat, so that end of the comparison is not exactly parallel to the rest.

That is true, but De Leon was the de facto Republican in this year's senate race in California. Heavily Republican Lassen and Modoc Counties gave him more than 70% of the vote, and he won all of the other Republican counties in Central and Northern California. Yes, there was a turnout differential in those counties between the Senatorial and Gubernatorial races, but that doesn't change the fact that most Republicans who voted in the Senate race did so for De Leon. Feinstein's numbers also were down considerably in the Bay Area and Los Angeles County from what she got in 2012.

Lassen and Modoc are SO liberal? Or - De Leon is SO conservative?)))))))))))))))))

What do you mean? The reason why Lassen and Modoc voted so strongly for De Leon is because they were casting a protest vote against Feinstein, and had no other option but him on the ballot. He was the "non-incumbent" candidate, and in spite of his liberal views, was someone "other" than Feinstein. That was good enough for them.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #5624 on: November 28, 2018, 04:44:49 AM »

How come Cantwell underperformed so badly? It seems odd she only did 2 points better than Hillary, especially against a sacrificial lamb like Hutchison.

Polarization, as you yourself have said, and as I've pointed out elsewhere. She, Carper, and Feinstein all failed to clear 60%, like they had back in 2012. Chris Murphy in Connecticut fell short of that mark as well.

I mean, Feinstein was facing another Democrat, so that end of the comparison is not exactly parallel to the rest.

That is true, but De Leon was the de facto Republican in this year's senate race in California. Heavily Republican Lassen and Modoc Counties gave him more than 70% of the vote, and he won all of the other Republican counties in Central and Northern California. Yes, there was a turnout differential in those counties between the Senatorial and Gubernatorial races, but that doesn't change the fact that most Republicans who voted in the Senate race did so for De Leon. Feinstein's numbers also were down considerably in the Bay Area and Los Angeles County from what she got in 2012.

Lassen and Modoc are SO liberal? Or - De Leon is SO conservative?)))))))))))))))))

What do you mean? The reason why Lassen and Modoc voted so strongly for De Leon is because they were casting a protest vote against Feinstein, and had no other option but him on the ballot. He was the "non-incumbent" candidate, and in spite of his liberal views, was someone "other" than Feinstein. That was good enough for them.

Obviously, it was a sarcasm.....
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