Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Canis]

Endorsed this race is pretty much safe inslee wonder what nut the gop will run

[Canis]

What percentage will Joshua for congress get?

[Canis]

Washington Democrats are very loyal in a way that does make it structurally difficult for Republicans to breakthrough. This is true in Oregon and California as well (and increasingly in Nevada, Colorado ... maybe Arizona?)

I believe it is due to relatively high and consistent voter turnout, especially because Democrats rely on a voter based of college educated voters who turnout consistently. I think the only way to get Republican opportunities would be to completely shift the brand of the party a la Vermont's Phil Scott.

However I don't know if the WA GOP would ever be comfortable becoming an anti-Trumpist, moderate party. There is a large number of voters in Washington who dislike taxes and are pretty moderate (the left is very loud, but still a minority) so an environmentally savvy, low-tax, professional Republican could eventually take the helm... but only if the entire legislative GOP becomes less susceptible to big scary news stories and conspiracies like Culp.

It's pretty remarkable how similar the WA Republican Party sounds like the CA Republican Party (Though I guess it shouldn't be given their both west coast states).

So basically, the WA GOP can’t really figure out to get a wide base of support in the state and it’s only going to get more difficult unless Seattle stops growing and becomes more economically depressed.

Not to mention Californians like me moving out there on a daily basis (Myself hopefully included soon)

Do Californians tend to move to Seattle, the surrounding cities, or the rural areas?

Anecdotally speaking, I'm looking at moving to anywhere in the Greater Seattle metro, with an emphasis on Olympia & Tacoma. I'm sure my list is very similar to other transplants.

Nice! Most California people I know looking to move are also looking at Seattle or the Seattle burbs I'm looking to go there too after I finish college which won't be for about another couple years or so unless I get into a school in Washington and am up for paying out of state tuition. But when I move I'm looking at Skagit and Whatcom Counties because I have deep family ties to that region I normally go up there once a year since I was a baby I used to go lobster fishing with my grandpa I love it there and the cities of Anacortes and Bellingham are really nice I'm not really a huge fan of the big city aesthetic so I'm probably gonna stay out of the Seattle metro but I also like how Skagit and Whatcom are positioned close enough to Vancouver Seattle and a couple of other big cities so its not far from a lot of em.

[Canis]

/snip

Anecdotally speaking, I'm looking at moving to anywhere in the Greater Seattle metro, with an emphasis on Olympia & Tacoma. I'm sure my list is very similar to other transplants.

Nice! Most California people I know looking to move are also looking at Seattle or the Seattle burbs I'm looking to go there too after I finish college which won't be for about another couple years or so unless I get into a school in Washington and am up for paying out of state tuition. But when I move I'm looking at Skagit and Whatcom Counties because I have deep family ties to that region I normally go up there once a year since I was a baby I used to go lobster fishing with my grandpa I love it there and the cities of Anacortes and Bellingham are really nice I'm not really a huge fan of the big city aesthetic so I'm probably gonna stay out of the Seattle metro but I also like how Skagit and Whatcom are positioned close enough to Vancouver Seattle and a couple of other big cities so its not far from a lot of em.

Having lived in SoCal all my life, I'm tired of the hustle-and-bustle and suburban jungle aesthetic. However, I'd still like to be near a big metro. Bellingham looks and sounds really interesting, but Olympia has the benefit (Or drawback to some folks) of being within 2 hours of Portland. No matter where/if I end up in Washington, I think it'll be a breath of fresh air (Figuratively & literally).

This is all talk though. I've never been to the PNW, though I'll be traveling up there for 2 weeks in August. I'll try and hit up Bellingham, but it may be a little too far out from my plans. It's also just as likely that I'll end up moving to Sacramento in leiu of Washington or Oregon. Either way, I don't see myself in SoCal 5 years from now.

Nice! Hope you have a fun trip!  WA is a really beautiful state also once you get out of Seattle the lack of traffic is going to feel amazing lol compared to Socal that's another reason I really wanna live their in Downtown Seattle the traffic is a little LA esique but the rest of the state has very clear roads. The Air Qaulity is also a lot cleaner than in Los Angeles. Let us know how your trip goes in August!

[Canis]

Went to a Snohomish County GOP rally yesterday and had the "pleasure" of listening to Loren Culp speak. He led with "How many of you actually think Biden won?" and dropped a "I won more votes than any Republican in Washington state history" line before trashing Kim Wyman (who, of course, won more votes than him). Made me seethe a bit. Absolute joke of a candidate who is everything wrong with the party.

Some of the local candidates were decent if generic (the county and city elected officials were pretty solid), some were kooks (one told a bizarre story about being contacted by a Nigerian Pentecostal woman who said God told her to contact her and that she needed to spend the night at her place in order to take back America), a couple were clearly in the Q camp (save our children from the secret govt pedos and all), and some not-all-there protestor with a bullhorn shouted over everyone from time to time calling Republicans pedos. About what I expected, all told.

Do you plan on getting involved with the WA Gop? Just saying if you wanted to with your knowledge of political demographics you could try political consulting that's something I've been looking to do

[Canis]

/snip

Anecdotally speaking, I'm looking at moving to anywhere in the Greater Seattle metro, with an emphasis on Olympia & Tacoma. I'm sure my list is very similar to other transplants.

Nice! Most California people I know looking to move are also looking at Seattle or the Seattle burbs I'm looking to go there too after I finish college which won't be for about another couple years or so unless I get into a school in Washington and am up for paying out of state tuition. But when I move I'm looking at Skagit and Whatcom Counties because I have deep family ties to that region I normally go up there once a year since I was a baby I used to go lobster fishing with my grandpa I love it there and the cities of Anacortes and Bellingham are really nice I'm not really a huge fan of the big city aesthetic so I'm probably gonna stay out of the Seattle metro but I also like how Skagit and Whatcom are positioned close enough to Vancouver Seattle and a couple of other big cities so its not far from a lot of em.

Having lived in SoCal all my life, I'm tired of the hustle-and-bustle and suburban jungle aesthetic. However, I'd still like to be near a big metro. Bellingham looks and sounds really interesting, but Olympia has the benefit (Or drawback to some folks) of being within 2 hours of Portland. No matter where/if I end up in Washington, I think it'll be a breath of fresh air (Figuratively & literally).

This is all talk though. I've never been to the PNW, though I'll be traveling up there for 2 weeks in August. I'll try and hit up Bellingham, but it may be a little too far out from my plans. It's also just as likely that I'll end up moving to Sacramento in leiu of Washington or Oregon. Either way, I don't see myself in SoCal 5 years from now.

Nice! Hope you have a fun trip!  WA is a really beautiful state also once you get out of Seattle the lack of traffic is going to feel amazing lol compared to Socal that's another reason I really wanna live their in Downtown Seattle the traffic is a little LA esique but the rest of the state has very clear roads. The Air Qaulity is also a lot cleaner than in Los Angeles. Let us know how your trip goes in August!

Given the mass hysteria that seems to have fermented in this thread, I take it now isn't a good time for my trip report where I have positive things to say about Seattle & the state of Washington?

 
I think saying positive things about Seattle will be a welcome break from the hysteria lmao

[Canis]

Our team thinks it’s significant that voters of color prefer Davison by a more than two-to-one margin (44% for Davison, 21% for Thomas-Kennedy, 34% not sure) and voters in three of our four age brackets.

The youngest voters do prefer Thomas-Kennedy, but her advantage with them is not overwhelming: she has 36% support from voters ages eighteen to thirty-four, while Davison has support from 28% of that group.

Nearly a third of the youngest voters — 32% — aren’t sure.

From the poll Roll posted.

[Canis]

Approval Voting is coming to Washington

Dear god, approval voting is nothing but gobbledygook confusion. Who in their right minds thinks this is a good idea?

Politicians will become even more of robotic cowards.

Approval isn't awful, it actually has some advantages over  RCV in single winner elections. I do prefer RCV to it. STAR also is a really nice hybrid of the two but its pretty fringe and hard to explain.

[Canis]

WA-03 Primary:

Image Link

Red is Perez, Blue is JHB, Orange is Kent, Green is St. John.

These patterns are really interesting. Does anyone know what might be behind the patterns for each GOP candidate?

Not super familiar with the district but I've been through a couple of times, looks like JHB did really well in the suburban parts of the district Kent did really well in the rural areas and St john did well around the area of her state senate district.

[Canis]

I actually now live in a jurisdiction in which I can vote in RI’s election. I moved too recently for my address change to be reflected in the primary, but it should apply to the November election.

Are you gonna vote for him?