Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle (user search)
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle (search mode)
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Author Topic: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 848581 times)
Oryxslayer
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« on: August 22, 2019, 11:57:25 AM »

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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2020, 12:43:26 PM »
« Edited: August 07, 2020, 06:46:10 PM by Oryxslayer »

The Democrats could pull ahead in WA-08 once more ballots come in, and while primaries here are somewhat predicative of the general election, I'd be stunned if Schrier lost in an environment like this. Probably either means that this particular primary will be a bit off (it happens from time to time), or we're headed for a closer national race than we initially thought. Hard to see Herrera Beutler losing, though, even if the margin tightens a bit. I think moving WA-03 to Lean R was a bit premature anyway.

Casual reminder that the current leading republican only has 53K on hand to Schrier's 2.3 Million. This is a similar tale to a lot of other races in the country: the GOP could get competitive if they cared. However, the environment is poor enough that they were pushed into a house campaign of focused targets that abandons the rest. It's only compounded by the fact that many of the potential targets are in suburbs in with pricey media markets, meaning that you need to play wide and raise wheelbarrows of cash to actually get recognition.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2 on: February 24, 2023, 04:26:08 PM »

I feel like she's still too conservative for WA in a similar way that Smiley was, but better than Culp for sure.

Her last votes in congress (same sex marriage, birth control, abortion, etc.) will certainly come back to haunt her.


Probably, but they're also vastly less well-known compared to her impeachment vote and getting primaried by a far right Putin supporter. I'm sure the Dems will push those votes hard and probably succeed as it's Washington, but who knows; being pro-life didn't hurt prominent anti-Trump Republicans like DeWine and Kemp.

Personally, I really like JHB and would gladly support her, possibly even volunteer.


Yeah, there's nothing wrong with JHB running for Governor - other than it suggests she thinks the blanket primary won't let her win her old job back. The issue is that Inslee is entrenched at this point and everyone - both D and R - will need him to retire of succumb to scandal for the office to seriously be contested.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #3 on: July 07, 2023, 12:05:26 PM »

Garcia has dropped out of the Governor's race and endorsed Reichert. He will run against Cantwell.

It seems the Governor's race will likely be Ferguson vs Reichert. Reichert is about the best the GOP can do here. My initial guess is Ferguson wins 53-47.

Only issue with this is if both JHB  and Reichart run, the field is divided enough for an eastern crazy type to have a clear shot towards losing the runoff in November.
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