Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

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I like Darcy Burner. She is a good candidate but she just didn't know how to run a campaign last time. I hope she has learned and will be better this time around.

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More statistics about why this system sucks:

- In 92 out of the 124 races (74%) on the ballot, there is only one or two candidates on the ballot. So the primary is meaningless, but we're still going to spend money and time on it.

- There are 207 candidates for the Legislature this year, as opposed to 233 in 2006. So we get fewer choices.

How many races were there in 2006? There are going to be flaws in the first year of this system. People will get used to it and then elections will become interesting.

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Washington is weird.

That's why we love it!

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I think Darcy Burner is a great candidate, but she really hasn't been doing much campaigning. She needs to start stepping it up!

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It's August with 19 days until the primary. What shall we expect in the next 3 weeks?

Also, which races will be one-party or involve a third party at the GE level in your opinion?

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It's too bad this has been taken over by partisans.

I just talked to one of the leaders of the state Democratic Party and the arguments they offer are just full of holes and completely nonsensical. The main argument is that we should be like the rest of the other states in the country and be "normal." The top-two primary according to the Democratic Party of WA will hurt third parties and lower voter turnout. How can this be true if voters chose to have a top-two primary? It really isn't confusing, but the parties make us think that it is. And this is an exciting chance for third parties to actually become part of the system. Take advantage of it Greens, Libertarians, and Constitutionalists! You guys actually have a chance now!

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in some cases when a party is split between a number of candidates it opens up the possibility for third parties.

But excludes them 99% of the time...

It won't be that way once people get accustomed to the top-two primary. This year will look bad, but once people start to understand that they really have a choice in the first round, I believe we will see much more third party growth (esp. if the two main parties become corrupt).
Eventually this will really help to decrease partisanship and polarization.

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Turnout is frighteningly horrible in King and Pierce unless that does not count the uncounted ballots.

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I'm so dismayed by ChangMook Sohn's loss.

But Gregoire is doing spectacularly and looks like she will win in Nov. with the help of higher turnout particularly in King County.

Did anyone notice the rather high numbers for the Constitution party? 6.52% for SOS!?

Disappointment with Burner, however when you add her total with the other two Democrats, she wins. I suspect that the GE will help Reichert, but it is a presidential year, so the Obama-effect may cancel out the Reichert-Green River Sheriff effect.

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I just wanted to see where Dorn's strongest areas were, and reading the county list wasn't too easy to visualize.

My suspicions were that he did well in the East and in the Southwest. I could be very wrong though.

Haven't memorized the county outlines and general metro areas?  Shameful!  (and good for your health.)

Dorn was competitive in the Tri-Cities (I didn't notice that he won Benton County, which is Kennewick and Richland); and the Wenatchee area.  He also did rather well in the suburbs, but not "ring cities" like Bremerton and Tacoma, which is interesting but seems to fit.

Beyond that, Bergeson's performance was kind of weird.  She ran pretty mediocre in the Seattle metro (see: suburbs?), but did really well in theoretically WASL-hostile areas like the San Juan Islands and Port Townsend.  She did OK in areas where the insurgency/Constitution vote was high this year (the Northeastern forestlands); politically "traditionalistic" areas (the coast and the Cowlitz); and in (non-suburban) conservative areas less prone to insurgency (the rural East counties).

If I had to write a litmus test for results, with the highest level being county, I'd say the basic formula for high Dorn performance was a "yes" answer to this pair of questions:

Does the public school system need fixing?
If so, does it need a drastic change?

I also get the impression that something local is going on in Wenatchee.  It stood out less this year, but in 2004, it was just too intense for it to just be the above criteria.

I met someone from Wenatchee and the schools there are in need of drastic change especially since they are about one-third Spanish speaking. Yakima is similar.

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Gregoire is still leading in many of the counties she lost in Western WA and Asotin. Cowlitz is odd though...

I'm still rooting for Burner. I think I'll join her campaign. She needs help and I'll be happy to provide it.

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Martin looks like he will win though.

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Pierce county is taking forever. I hope Burner pulls it off. We will just have to sit and wait.

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How did WA-3 vote? (Or the district that has Olympia+Vancouver+Lewis Co., I believe)

Seattle loves Obama, no surprise... did any precincts vote for McCain?

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I never realized how strongly Democratic Bainbridge Island was.

Anyways, the LD results are very interesting. It definitely gives a better picture of the election.

The changes in the Eastside are pretty clear. Only a few years ago, the Republicans were competitive in districts like the 41st, but this election we gave a >60% vote to Obama. Every district in King Co. voted for Obama!

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I'm surprised areas of Mason Co. such as Hoodsport and other tourist resort areas were not as strongly Democratic. Obama did strongly among those groups, but maybe they don't actually live near the tourist resort areas (such as Alderbrook). Hood Canal... I wonder how many people actually vote in those precincts because most of the people there are summer vacation homeowners.

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The Eastside swing is incredible. I am in utter shock. Wow... Sammamish almost at 60% for a democrat!! That's just shocking. Some of these swings are just unbelievable. Did any place swing for McCain? Could you do a map of the cities? And what about Unincorporated King Co.?

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This makes me wonder how badly Huckabee would have done on the Eastside...

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Ahh, here's that graph I was looking for:



Not to mention this report: http://www.itepnet.org/wp2000/wa%20pr.pdf

I'm tempted to vote against any sales tax increase...Not because I don't support a tax raise, but because the Democrats need to grow a pair and replace it with an income tax.

but what if Bill Gates moves away... tear...

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Gregoire to sign the National Popular Vote Compact tomorrow.

And where's the budget?

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Well, I do know that people who would normally vote only for a Democrat like my mother, would probably vote for the person with the most name recognition, even if she does her research. Of course we live in Fred Jarrett's district and we don't watch KIRO (is that her station?), so I'm guessing name recognition won't help in our house.

It'll be interesting to see what happens as we get much closer to the election date.

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Wednesday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 104. North wind between 3 and 7 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 71. North wind between 5 and 8 mph becoming calm.

Thursday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 102. Calm wind becoming north northwest around 5 mph.

^^ We are all going to die.

I agree. I though I lived in Western Washington, not Texas.

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Once people realize it's an Eyman initiative, the "definitely oppose" should shoot up to 35-40%!

Also, I will be very surpised if R71 doesn't pass by a large margin.

Many people thought that Prop 8 would fail... but then look what happened.

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The ads for the pro gay rights side are way better (the ones in Maine are also superior), but it doesn't seem like this will pass unless turnout occurs. There seems to be a gloomy feeling of apathy these days, but maybe its just the difference between last year's memorable and long election to the nearly invisible ones this year. I guess I'm just bored of my AP Gov class, probably the least opinionated bunch of teenagers I have ever met...

Anyways, I really hope Ref71 passes, I might try to find time to go and help them out... but I was hoping this would just pass easily.

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I guess I'm just bored of my AP Gov class, probably the least opinionated bunch of teenagers I have ever met...

Going out on a limb here, but the regular Gov class is probably worse.

yeah, way worse - there isn't a regular gov class.