Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[CultureKing]

anyone have any comments or knowledge on the 35th LD house race? I want to know a little bit more and also see if anyone thinks it could turn into a D vs D race after the primary...

[CultureKing]

Here's something a little curious. In the Insurance Commissioner race, the Spokane County Republican Party Chair filed... but as "States No Party Preference". I have no idea who the hell the Republican that's running is, but Fackler may make it to the general if he gets the word out.

He could be protesting the new primary system, which the parties hate with a passion.

[CultureKing]

One of the GOP candidates for State Rep. in my district lists his occupation, unironically, as "Tetris player."

The other seat's candidate (who will advance) is running on an anti-communism platform...again.

Don't you just love the WA GOP?

[CultureKing]

I just want to puke every time I see an ad for the scumbag. He really is disgusting.

Agreed, there is just something not right about Rossi...

Turnout in King County isn't going well. Not good news for the Governor.

Turnout is down here in Thurston as well but after phone banking for about 6 hours and going door-to-door today I am finding that people just prefer to wait until a little bit closer to election day (most of them had sent their ballots out either yesterday or even today).

[CultureKing]

So, anyone want to give a prediction of how Cheryl Crist will do against Brian Baird in the primary? She is running as an anti-war democrat against Baird (remember Baird recently came out for the war, after opposing it from the start, the only congressman or even elected official I know to have done so).

My guess (based on absolutely nothing):
Baird: 55%
Delevar: 22%
Crist: 12%
Webb: 11%

Watch as this prediction becomes a laughing stock in only four days time. By the way I know nothing about the republicans, except that they will easily lose to Baird.

[CultureKing]

predicted turnout is 46%. I have a feeling that we will end up still being up from 2004 because of the popularity of the top-two primary. Just give people time.

[CultureKing]

The Top 2 Primary isn't perfect, but I resented the hell out of the "Pick A Party" primary.  If we go back to that system I will stop voting in the primary (except judicial races).  I really wish we could go back to the old blanket primary which unfortunately was declared unconstitutional.

Agreed, the blanket primary was best. But really I don't mind this primary system very much... its kind of like a dry run through for the races in November and in some cases when a party is split between a number of candidates it opens up the possibility for third parties.

[CultureKing]

So, how do you guys think Sam Reed will do in the general? I'm feeling fairly certain he'll hit 60%. 70% wouldn't really be out of the question, either.

I am guessing 70%+, perhaps even breaking 80%. I don't even know any democrats who voted against him, he really did do a good job in 2004 of remaining impartial.

[CultureKing]

By the way LD 35 should be interesting tomarrow for state Rep. Fred Finn should advance, but I am not so sure about who else, I think there are two dems and one weak republican in the primary so it could be interesting (Daugs is interesting, he could either do quite well or fall flat on his face).

[CultureKing]

Alrighty, here we go. A bolded name means they will be the top vote getter. Two names means those are the ones advancing to November.

US Congress, Dist. 1: Inslee
US Congress, Dist. 2: Larsen, Bart
US Congress, Dist. 3: Baird, Webb
US Congress, Dist. 4: Hastings, Fearing
US Congress, Dist. 5: McMorris, Mays
US Congress, Dist. 6: Dicks, Cloud
US Congress, Dist. 7: McDermott, Beren
US Congress, Dist. 8: Reichert, Burner
US Congress, Dist. 9: Smith

Governor: Gregoire, Rossi
Lt. Governor: Owen, McCraw
SOS: Reed, Osgood
State Treasurer: Martin, Sohn
State Auditor: Sonntag, McEntee
Attorney General: McKenna
CPL: Goldmark
SPI: Bergeson, Dorn
Insurance Commissioner: Kreidler, Adams
Supreme Court: Fairhurst, Johnson, Stephens

Legislative races later on tonight if I have time...

Shouldn't Goldmark have an opponent?

[CultureKing]

There are now results on the Secretary of State's homepage. Gregoire is doing very well, somehow she is ahead in Adams, Skamania and Spokane counties...

ChangMook Sohn looks to be headed towards defeat.

[CultureKing]

Y'all think you could go any slower in counting votes.  thanks!

Counting is basically done for the night.

[CultureKing]

Early results map:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&off=5&elect=6&fips=53&f=0

That map is beautiful for Gregoire.

[CultureKing]

Some interesting county results for Congressional races:

ADAMS COUNTY
75.59% McMorris Rodgers (R)
7.52% Erickson (R)
6.90% Mays (D)
5.72% Lampert (D)
2.62% Yearout (C)
1.66% (L)

COWLITZ COUNTY
52.44% Baird (D)
17.12% Crist (D)
15.60% Delavar (R)
14.84% Webb (R)

Basically, Cowlitz County is awesome and Adams is reminding us that nobody is f**king with their reputation as the worst county in Washington.


ALSO:
State Treasurer:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&off=8&elect=6&fips=53&f=0

Whoot! Go Thurston for giving Sohn his largest share of the vote!!

[CultureKing]

Dino the Despicable is now ahead in Cowlitz, Clark, Spokane, and Skamania.

Did late returns (or ballots just arriving in the mail) favor Rossi then?

[CultureKing]

Anyone have any info or ideas about the two remaining candidates for state treasurer? I really liked Sohn but I am not so sure about the other two.

The republican was endorsed by Murhpy and I really respected him and meanwhile McIntire... well I just don't know a ton about him.

[CultureKing]

Could you do my precinct? Fry Cove (thurston county) 094

[CultureKing]

^ Yes, McKenna is more likely to be Washington's next Republican Governor than Rossi. I've felt that way for a while. But I'm fairly certain he would lose against Sonntag. That would be a great way to get rid of McKenna.

Inslee would be an okay candidate, though I would rather not run candidates from Seattle/Bainbridge when possible... As for Chopp, I hope you're kidding. I kind of doubt the Republicans will ever regain the legislature. At least not for decades. He should just be happing being in control of the House for as long as he wants.

The Chopp thing I've only heard once, but it was from a pretty good source. Inslee has been planning his ascension for years now though.

Maybe Pam Roach can run again.

Ewww... Pam Roach....

[CultureKing]

Kreidler's sort of a weird enigma. I've never met anyone who's ever seen him, and he never has any campaign material.

I saw him. Once.

He's a pretty quiet person really the only reason any of us knew who he was owned to him being introduced to everyone.

[CultureKing]

Commissioner of Public Lands: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&off=10&elect=6&fips=53&f=0



Goldmark does well in parts of Eastern Washington (his home county of Okanogan, as well as Spokane and Whitman counties), but does very poorly in traditionally Democratic parts of Western Washington. If Goldmark wants to win he's gonna need to improve his numbers in the South Sound and coastal counties.

Thurston will likely stay for Sutherland in the general, because of our dependence on the government for the local economy people tend to back incumbents on the state-wide level.

[CultureKing]

I don't get what's 1950s about it. Is it the name "Dino" in handwriting? Maybe because he's sitting at a diner counter...? Other than that, I don't see it.

The haircut is one thing, obviously. So is the setting, so is the shirt (though there's no tie). But there's more to it than that; the typefaces seem very fifties (as does the colour of the lettering) and so do the colours in the photograph.

The shirt looks normal to me. I wasn't aware that the color yellow (color of the typeface) and the color of the photo were '50s-esque. 

But hey, if this is the best that you can throw at Dino...   

Ok, how about the facts that:
1) He really knows nothing about how to run a state governement
2) Has not put out very many concrete plans
3) The plans he has outlined are seen as being unrealistic and slow-witted
4) He is horribly desperate to get the governorship (Hillary's desire for the presidency is nothing compared to Dino's want for the governorship, I think he would sell his children off if it came down to it).
5) What has he done over the past four years to be constructive and help the state? Not much, instead he has been giving "informational" speeches (of course he wouldn't campaign)
6) Tries to portray himself as a moderate eventhough its obvious he isn't

The list goes on and on...

[CultureKing]

Phil in terms of plans I was referring to his transportation plan, which has been attacked by all sides and basically all the experts. And I really do see a problem with people who claim to be moderates when in reality they aren't. They are purposefully misrepresenting themselves in an effort to get elected. The voting public has enough trouble as it is without that clouding their judgement.

[CultureKing]

Oh by the way does anyone know how the state senate and house races are going? Is the trend towards Republicans or Democrats gaining seats? Or does it look like there will few if any changes (seems likely to me at this point). A supermajority would be nice as insurance against a possible Rossi win.

[CultureKing]

There are really only two competitive State Senate races. Carrell (R) is locked in a tight re-election battle as always, and Rasmussen (D) is facing an aggressive challenger (and on top of that no one really like Rasmussen). Republicans would like to think they can take out Kastama (D) and Haugen (D), but they're not in any real trouble. Weird things might happen in the 40th (Open D). Democrats should be able to retain it though.

There's a number of competitive contests for the State House. Anderson (R) is locked in a surprisingly tough fight (maybe he should stop the hanky panky with Sen. Pflug - oops, did I say that?) Other Republicans who might be in trouble are Ahern and the open seats in the 17th and the 25th. Maybe the two in the 10th as well, but probably not. Democrats need to be concerned about Barlow, Loomis, Goodman, Simpson and the open seat in the 26th and possibly the ones in the 35th and 41st.

So overall I'd give the Senate a net change of +0 to both sides, but if anything were to happen it would be D +1 (Carrell). In the House it's probably going to be a Republican net gain of one or two. But a lot will depend on how influential Obama is with down-ticket races.

I live in the 35th, you have no reason to be afraid, Finn has strong support and his opponent is crazy radical (though will still likely get around 40-45% of the vote).

[CultureKing]

do you know how long they've been at it? Anderson is married... Pflug was until recently (is this what ended it?).

Yup.

Started sometime in the last two years is my understanding. DeBolt is also messing around with committee staff.

Also, if anyone was curious, Gregoire is sick.

Is there a reason Democrats never choose to pursue these things? They knew what West was up to, left it alone, and he ended up as a disaster for Spokane.

If that got released about Debolt his reelection could have been in serious jeopardy as Rechner was doing relatively well against him in his district...