Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Alaska2392]

     I find it troubling that such a basic step forward for the gay rights movement passed so narrowly. Imagine if you guys had actually voted on gay marriage tonight.

First of all, let me say that this is my first ever post on election atlas.  I've been following this forum for about a year now but finally registered recently.

Yes, for anyone who is interested - I am a Washington resident who voted approve on Ref 71.

Now, to the comment:

What we need to consider is how many votes are still to be counted in King County, which is currently approving by about 65%-35%.  The secretary of state's website reports that so far 254,261 ballots have been counted.  King county elections says that the approx. number received is 374,801.  If that is the case there are about 120,000 ballots from King County not yet counted.

This also presents a problem because you were allowed to mail in your ballot as late as today.   I expect king county to be receiving a good amount of additional ballots until Wednesday.   

[Alaska2392]

After the latest update:

Seattle Mayor

Mike McGinn    75657    49.99%
Joe Mallahan    74448    49.19%
Write-in       1240    0.82%

McGinn extends his lead to just over 1200 votes.  The excitement is killing me. lol.

Look for the next update at 9:00 PM tonight!

I see little movement in much else.

[Alaska2392]

Um, can't really tell you too much interesting.  I've lived in Seattle my whole life.

[Alaska2392]

Is anyone planning on posting either R-71 or I-1033 maps?

I'm super interested in King, Spokane, and Piece county maps.

[Alaska2392]

Am I missing something here? Doesn't Brad Owen get to vote on this if it's a tie?  Or is that not somehow not case with the Washington state lieutenant governor?  Should we be talking about him?

[Alaska2392]

Oh boy, I'm so excited that the words "redefine marriage" are in the in Referendum 74 proposed ballot language.  Thank you Rob McKenna.  I can see a judge ruling either way on this one.  Reminds me in a strange way of the Rossi "Prefers GOP Party".

[Alaska2392]

SurveyUSA shows Obama leading Washington 54% - 38%

[Alaska2392]

So, just out of curiosity, is it a good thing for Inslee that SurveyUSA is saying he ahead by 6% in the 6th district or is that lower than it should be?

What I mean is, how does that compare to other years like 2008? 

At first I was really excited by this... but now I'm a little nervous considering the 6th includes places like Tacoma, Jefferson County, and Grays Harbor.

[Alaska2392]

Yikes, the "The real Rob McKenna" ads are awful.

Agreed, but in the year 2012 "good attack ad" is kind of an oxymoron.  I doubt any of these ads are having an impact.

I mean, honestly, a bunch of old guys with AWM syndrome discussing Jay Inslee's record at a Denny's......

[Alaska2392]

Yeah, interesting is right.  We'll have to look for another poll to back this up.  My guess is that King 5 isn't done with SurveyUSA.

I know a lot of people on this forum hate this, but just for the record - apparently this poll was D+3 as opposed to D+13 in the last one. 

[Alaska2392]

I know this has already been mentioned, but I can't get over the current standing of the 17th Legislative District race...

Probst ahead by 16 votes......

[Alaska2392]

The Washington Poll was released for KCTS9 yesterday.  As many of you know this poll is performed by the University of Washington on a yearly (or nearly yearly basis).

Would definitely post a link to the full results for you guys, but it looks like I am below the post number threshold to paste links.  You can find it pretty easily through Google.  You can also go to the KCTS 9 website and find by clicking "Election 2014" under the programs tab.

Disappointed in the survey this year.  Would have been great if they actually polled the house races rather than just asking about initiatives.  I guess the one nice thing is we have some confirmation that Elway Poll wasn't crazy when it said that it really is a possibility that both gun initiatives pass.

Also love the wording of question 34, "The America that you know and love isn't changing too fast, and will never change..."  Agree or Disagree?   What if there isn't much to love about the current America and you want it to change?

[Alaska2392]

Thanks to our state's wonderful top 2 primary the Treasurer race (at least according to SOS website) is R v R at the current moment.  3 Democrats splitting the vote and 2 Republicans splitting the vote.

Dang it WA.  I was so looking forward to finally achieving the WA, OR, CA no Republican elected to statewide office.

[Alaska2392]

Point taken - though Wyman is running for SOS, so we are talking about two different races.  I honestly haven't followed the SOS or Treasurer race in depth enough to really make any intelligent comment about who will win or lose.

I just think the Treasurer race shows what the "top 2" primary can do.   It can make a party with less votes overall move two candidates to the general election.  Oh well, I guess you get what you vote for.

[Alaska2392]

Just out of curiosity what is up with these people running from the "Independent" Democratic Party.

Are these people who want to join in the coalition thing with the Republicans in the legislature? Or are they just saying that because they think it will get them more votes to label themselves as "independent"?

[Alaska2392]

Gubernatorial "debate" was about what I expected.  I wonder how many people actually watched this.

I find both candidates to be completely uninspiring but will end up voting for Inslee.

Candidates not really answering the questions.

For goodness sakes though Bryant, Inslee is not in support of an income tax.  Enough is enough.

Also, lol at Bryant trying to have a big moment by getting Inslee to commit to not raising taxes and getting cut-off by the moderator (since you aren't allowed to directly address your opponent).

[Alaska2392]

Since Eastern Washington population growth (except for maybe Tri-Cities) doesn't appear to be especially strong I would expect more influence in the area around Seattle. If the Census Bureau is to be believed Seattle will have gained enough people to have another legislative district inside of it.

I am more interested in how the Congressional Lines will be drawn.  My guess is that Washington won't gain another seat in 2020 - though you never know - so only minor adjustments will have to be made to current boundaries.

[Alaska2392]

Just as a summary - here are the results from KOMO News/Strategies 360 poll that are NOT for the presidential race:

Senate:  Murray 57% - Vance 36% - Undecided 6%
Governor:  Inslee 50% - Bryant 40% - Undecided 8%
Measure 1433 (Increase Min Wage and Sick Leave):  Yes 62% - No 37% - Undecided 2%
Measure 1491 (Gun initiative): Yes 79% - No 17% - Undecided 4%
Measure 732 (Carbon Tax): Yes 42% - No 37% - Undecided 21%  (!!)

Also:

King County Presidential Results:  Clinton 62% - Trump 18% - Johnson 10% - Stein 3% - Undecided 3%

[Alaska2392]

My ballot:

I-1433: Yes
I-1464: Yes
I-1491: No
I-1501: No
I-732: Yes
I-735: Yes

President: Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine
Senate: Patty Murray
US Representative (CD-7): Brady Walkinshaw (I think there is <40% chance he wins, but you never know)

Governor: Jay Inslee
Lieutenant Governor: Cyrus Habib
Secretary of State: Tina Podlodowski
Treasurer: BLANK
Auditor: Pat McCarthy
Attorney General: Bob Ferguson
Commissioner of Public Lands: Hillary Franz
Superintendent of Public Instruction: Chris Reykdal
Insurance Commissioner: Mike Kreidler

[Alaska2392]

Where are they already posting ballot return statistics? King County isn't posting them until tomorrow.

Nevermind: https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ballot-return-statistics.aspx

[Alaska2392]

Made a trip into Port Townsend (Jefferson County) today. Still as dark blue as ever from the looks of things. Saw more signs for Hillary Franz than I did Trump.

Well, that's good to know - though obviously expected. Jefferson County population growth has been lagging though.  Democratic stronghold, but not increasing its influence statewide.

While I wish Jefferson County were larger, I'm happy to have any county in Washington that votes around 65%ish + for the Democrat.   In 2012, the 6,334 gap for Obama was just about enough to offset victories for Romney in Wahkiakum, Skamania, Klickitat, Columbia, Garfield, Asotin, Whitman, Ferry, and Pend Oreille combined.  The Jefferson + San Juan Obama v. Romney gap was ~10,000 altogether.

[Alaska2392]

I've read in more than a couple places now about this weird "Inslee's first term has been filled with scandal" narrative. 

http://www.seattleweekly.com/news/the-gop-says-inslee-is-a-terrible-governor-so-why-cant-they-beat-him-2/

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Some of these things seem out of Inslee's control (or at least he shares the blame with the legislature) and I feel like none of them are particularly game changing issues that voters really care deeply about. 

[Alaska2392]

Is Sound Transit 3 just simple majority of combined vote of all counties?  They don't have to get a majority in each to pass, correct?

How was Sound Transit 2 again in this regard? Was it a majority in all three?

[Alaska2392]

Can we now FINALLY put to bed this notion that "Crazy King County" delivers big results to 3rd parties?

Stein is at 1.61% and Johnson at 3.95%.  So combined they overperformed about 1% vs the nation.

[Alaska2392]

That SPI map is pretty crazy. Is there any discernable pattern apart from Jones doing well in Native American areas?

Seattle going against Jones was probably due to Jones' questionable stance on LGBT matters, which caused The Stranger to un-endorse her. It also seems like Republicans largely backed Rekydal, I guess because if you look at the two candidates side-by-side, you'd guess Rekydal to be the more conservative one.

Yes, I'm sure that is why.   Or could it perhaps have to do with looking at the two pictures in the voters pamphlet and making a choice based on that.