Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle (user search)
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle (search mode)
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Author Topic: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 836292 times)
smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« on: February 01, 2012, 04:43:05 AM »

Theoretically it looks between 25-24 and 29-20. Practically - somewhere "in between")))
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2012, 05:38:50 AM »
« Edited: February 01, 2012, 05:48:27 AM by smoltchanov »

Ok, cool, thanks.  And this is the Senate, I presume?  (Sorry, I really haven't been paying attention.)  What does it look like in the House?

Senate.. House - well, i don't remember exact numbers there, but suppose - something about 53-45 or 55-43.... I don't remember too many moderate Republicans (equivalents of Litzow, Hill or Fain) there... Though there are couple AFAIK. On the other hand i don't remember Tim Sheldon's there  either)))
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #2 on: February 02, 2012, 10:36:37 PM »


May be - she prefers Koster? With her as candidate that becomes real possibility...
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #3 on: February 06, 2012, 01:40:35 AM »

I'll go ahead and predict it now: Darcy Burner will win the WA-01 primary and hand the seat to the Republicans in November.

The worst thing of it - she will hand the seat not to Litzow-Hill-Fain-style moderate Republican (whom i, personally, would be absolutely comfortable with), but to ultraright Koster(((((
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #4 on: March 05, 2012, 03:19:11 AM »

Who would the Republicans run? I can't really think of anyone, other than maybe Jan Angel.

Dino Rossi?

3-times loser? No, thank you))))
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #5 on: May 13, 2012, 02:39:27 PM »

DelBene got the sole endorsement of the AFL-CIO at their statewide convention last week.

She's the establishment candidate, no question about that. She'd probably beat Koster, but I see no reason to get stuck with a boring DLC-style Congresswoman when we have a better choice. Smiley

Who is it? Burner, who would almost surely lose to Koster? I will easily take a real Blue Dog, not only DLC, if he/she is the only one able to win))))
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #6 on: July 02, 2012, 02:57:35 AM »
« Edited: July 02, 2012, 07:49:08 AM by smoltchanov »


Hilarious. He looks pretty stupid right now. Maybe he isn't as strong of a candidate as we thought.

Honestly, he should of just not filed that lawsuit with the other Republican AGs.

So.... The question is: does this make independents think he's even more moderate or a flip-flopper?

Both. But, as a moderate AND Independent, i would still prefer him over Inslee.
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #7 on: July 12, 2012, 11:25:57 PM »
« Edited: July 13, 2012, 01:36:09 AM by smoltchanov »

Whoa. Four Republican members of the State House have endorsed some guy named Shahram Hadian for Governor, who is running to Rob McKenna's right: http://hadian2012.com/press-releases/2012-07-12/breaking-news-conservative-leaders-endorse-hadian-governor

These four members are "pure dumbasses" - ready to support a patented idiot with zero chances to be elected for the sake of "ideological purity". But this malaise is not limited to Republican idiots exclusively - i met a lot of their Democratic counterparts as well..
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #8 on: November 16, 2012, 03:51:42 AM »

Fun fact: Democrats held a 51-48 majority in the State House after the 1962 elections. Republicans sided with seven DINOs to install a DINO as Speaker.

So many DINO's at that time??? It seems to me, that now it's easier to find RINO then DINO in the state (Tim Sheldon excluded))))
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #9 on: November 16, 2012, 04:24:45 AM »

So I think 3 states use this dumb nonpartisan blanket primary, CA, LA, and WA.

I'm glad that AZ soundly defeated it and maybe (hopefully) CA and WA will eliminate this dumb system as soon as possible.

On the contrary - i hope this system being gradually implemented everywhere. I am fed up with the system, where a small number "ideologically pure" primary activists frequently nominates crazies and then normal people get the only choice: who of these 2 is "relatively more normal"
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #10 on: November 16, 2012, 05:06:49 AM »

The ability to have competitive intra-party elections in certain districts is a fun aspect of top-two, but eventually there will be a D vs. D or an R vs. R race for a major office like Governor or Senator. The public will be aghast, opinion will quickly turn against the system, and it'll be abandoned soon afterwards. This could take decades, but eventually it will happen.

Also, as I've written in past posts here, a top-two system significantly decreases public input into who will be major party candidates in competitive races. There is an invisible primary that occurs behind the scenes between major donors and party political leaders to make sure that the scenario I described above doesn't happen (more so than there is in other states). Jay Inslee didn't run unopposed for Governor on the Democratic side this year because everyone just liked him so much. Smiley

In such case it will be a liberal Democrat vs. moderate Democrat or conservative Republican vs. moderate Republican race and i don't see anything terrible in such situation. IMHO - the situation i described above, where a far-right and far-left activists essentially anoint candidates of corresponding parties and (BIG!) center elects "lesser of 2 evils" is much worse.
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #11 on: November 17, 2012, 01:57:04 PM »

The top two has it's good and bad sides. National Democrats lost out on a congressional seat when two Republicans qualified to be on the November ballot. It is a swing seat, to be fair, but considering the Republican slaughter in the state this year, that seat would have likely gone to the Democrats. On the other hand, maybe we can get an independent who will deal only with the budget and ignore social issues on the ballot for governor. Doesn't matter if their opponent is Democrat or Republican, I would vote for an independent of that mold.

Me too)))
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #12 on: November 18, 2012, 01:06:56 AM »

This coalition Senate majority is looking more and more like a done deal. Hewitt announced yesterday that he's declining to run for Senate Republican leader. In his statement he praised the type of arrangement that would lead to Tom becoming Majority Leader: http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/2012/11/16/mike-hewitt-wont-lead-senate-republicans/

Hewitt also gave a quote where he says Tom considered becoming Ways and Means Chair or Majority Leader and decided he'd prefer Majority Leader: http://www.thenewstribune.com/2012/11/17/2370692/hewitt-wont-lead-gops-senators.html

Meanwhile, Benton leads by 96 votes after Friday's count with 2300 ballots remaining countywide. Stonier leads by 100 in the House race.

Well, that happened in Tennessee few years ago, when Democrats found a Republican ready to buck his party on some issues and made him speaker. In California in Willie Brown time. Why not vice versa??? It's politics after all - personal interests will always trump "party interests", and that's normal)))
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #13 on: May 30, 2013, 03:54:32 AM »

Republican State-Sen. Mike Carrell is dead, triggering a special election.


SD-28 is basically the Tacoma suburbs, and Obama got 54.4% here in 2012. This is a prime pick-up for Democrats, and will dismantle the Tomocracy assuming we hold SD-26.

Well, as i have read on DKE - election in SD-28 will be held in 2014 (until then - republican appointment) and keeping SD-26 (especially in non-presidential year) may be tall order..
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #14 on: January 13, 2014, 11:12:30 AM »

It's tough being a traitor to both sides I'd imagine:

Pressures grow for state Senate’s maverick majority leader

By Andrew Garber
Seattle Times Olympia bureau
Originally published Saturday, January 11, 2014 at 3:53 PM


OLYMPIA — Sen. Rodney Tom is a majority leader without a party.

Democrats can’t forgive him for crossing party lines last year, along with Sen. Tim Sheldon, to give the GOP control of the state Senate. The party is targeting Tom in this year’s elections.

And some Republicans, who owe Tom big time for putting them in charge, say he could be replaced with a majority leader from their own party if they pick up at least one more seat in November.

With that cloud overhead, Tom goes into another legislative session Monday as the ostensible leader of an unwieldy coalition of 24 Republicans and two Democrats — himself and Sheldon.

Their priorities include pushing through a series of laws, including changes to the state’s workers’ compensation system and state pensions.


Rodney Tom is at least somewhat too liberal for present day Republican party of Washington and too conservative - for Democratic...
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #15 on: February 01, 2014, 11:28:40 PM »

Obviously, more happens during presidential years in WA state, but when was the last statewide race that the GOP carried in WA state? You look back at the 2012 maps, 2008 maps, 2004 maps, 2000 maps, etc and all you see is Democratic wins.  It's scary.  Same thing as OR.

If i remember correctly - SoS race in 2012.
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #16 on: February 04, 2014, 03:56:02 AM »


It's "top 2", so, he, who will win a moderate vote, will, probably, win it all
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #17 on: February 12, 2014, 01:09:23 AM »


A LOT of others, you mean...
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #18 on: February 12, 2014, 04:09:30 AM »

Washington hasn't executed a prisoner in over 10 years. It's hardly a hot-button issue here.

I know. But many will like to have such possibility for especially abhorent case..
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #19 on: July 26, 2014, 12:12:02 AM »

I am sooo glad I don't live in Washington state, because I don't know how I could stand living in what is probably the most liberal state in the country (in terms of policies.)

Despite the natural beauty, culture, and artistic and economic activity Washington produces, it have gay marriage and marijuana so it is a terrible place to live. [/OldiesFreak]
It also has assisted suicide and blanket primaries, and it hasn't elected a GOP governor since 1980.  I admire the other things you mentioned, but it would be an absolute nightmare for me politically.

What is so awful about blanket primaries?

IMHO - nothing. On the contrary - in number of cases they give moderates  (outnumbered by far left in democratic primaries and by far right - in republican) at least a say in determining, who will be next elected official from given district. Otherwise they (as myself frequently) are forced to hold their nose and vote not for a candidate they like most, but - AGAINST candidate they hate most.. So i am absolutely FOR them.
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #20 on: March 15, 2015, 01:26:57 AM »

Why not Steve Litzow? He seems to me at least as good as Hill.
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #21 on: March 16, 2015, 01:24:05 AM »

Washington dems, would Inslee be at all vulnerable? It seems Washington Republicans view him as vulnerable if they're pursuing Hill as hard as they are.

The GOP is simply too unpopular after Bush and some earlier things to win the governorship. Inslee's unpopularity won't be a factor, just as Gregoire was reelected with approval ratings in the low thirties.

Washington elects governors in Presidential years, so  - probably yes. But i am reasonably sure McKenna would beat Inslee in 2014 or 2010. Just as Rauner beat Quinn or Hogan - Brown. If he got abput 48,5% in 2012 - he would win in these years.
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #22 on: March 16, 2015, 01:36:44 AM »

And one reuest for state gurus: i am living abroad now (and, probably, will be in foreseable future), so i am almost completely Internet-based as far as information is concerned. I am interested in opinions (objective) about ideological composition of freshmen in state legislature. Such information is not especially easy to find, and wait 2 years until someone, like Boris Shor, will update his legislative database is a long time. It seems to me, that Democratic politicians in the state (with glaring exceptions of Tim Sheldon and, may be, Christopher Hurst) are, generally, follow moderate-liberal to very liberal line, and that seems true about freshmen too, but i may be wrong. What about republican freshmen? I heard someone, like Melanie Stambaugh, be called "pro-choice moderate". Is it really so? In the past state has good numbers of reasonable moderate republicans, but, as in almost all states, they became much scarcer of recently, being pressed heavily by right-wingers.
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #23 on: March 16, 2015, 11:15:58 AM »

And one reuest for state gurus: i am living abroad now (and, probably, will be in foreseable future), so i am almost completely Internet-based as far as information is concerned. I am interested in opinions (objective) about ideological composition of freshmen in state legislature. Such information is not especially easy to find, and wait 2 years until someone, like Boris Shor, will update his legislative database is a long time. It seems to me, that Democratic politicians in the state (with glaring exceptions of Tim Sheldon and, may be, Christopher Hurst) are, generally, follow moderate-liberal to very liberal line, and that seems true about freshmen too, but i may be wrong. What about republican freshmen? I heard someone, like Melanie Stambaugh, be called "pro-choice moderate". Is it really so? In the past state has good numbers of reasonable moderate republicans, but, as in almost all states, they became much scarcer of recently, being pressed heavily by right-wingers.

Melanie Stambaugh is definitely our most interesting new GOP freshman. Only 24 and a former local beauty queen, she's probably a name to keep eye on in the South King/Puyallup area. Not sure how familiar you are with geography, but that's roughly where WA-10 and WA-8 come together. Her future is probably at the state level, though. She'll probably be her LD's Senator within 5-10 years.

I know geography (including those of Washington state) fairly well, though, of course, not as good as local denizens do. Thanks for info, but what about other freshmen?
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


« Reply #24 on: March 16, 2015, 02:13:09 PM »

Thanks, i know that. But while vast majority of Democrats in Washington state are elected  from "west of Cascades" districts, many Republicans hail ftom the western part of the state too. It's them, who were of interest to me...
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