Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[LastVoter]

I wonder how would that marijuana legalization vote would go.

[LastVoter]

Did they finally draw the maps for congressional district? I really hope they made the I-90 district democratic if there is one.

[LastVoter]

Did they finally draw the maps for congressional district? I really hope they made the I-90 district democratic if there is one.

The point of an I-90 district is to make Reichert a safe district, so that's not gonna happen.

I thought I-90 district would be like 55% dem?

[LastVoter]

Well the good guys won on I-1125. Garfield county is surprising. I think the only explanation I have is under 1000 turnout and the fact that surrounding counties broke 45/55 so maybe it's just an oddball because of the turnout. Spokane county disappointed me, I thought it would vote no and move into solid D area soon. My home county(Benton) voted over 40% for no, not as embarrassing as it usually is. I am surprised that this vote was less partisan than it should have been.

[LastVoter]

What makes you think Spokane County will become "solid D" soon? I haven't gotten that impression at all.

It's too big to be Republican.

[LastVoter]

Both of them are democrats right?

[LastVoter]

Yes. Linville is more moderate, though.

I was scared for a second that one of them was Republican, I wasn't sure if Bellingham was as liberal as Seattle. Btw does anybody know why does Franklin County not vote more left with majority-minority since 2010 census?
Looks like they updated I-1125 maps, and Spokane voted no by a slight margin. Columbia and Adams also flipped. I think Spokane will vote for Obama by 55% or more in 2012.

[LastVoter]

49.5 (R) vs 48.1 (D) in 2008.

[LastVoter]

Anyone who doubts the power of The Stranger should look at the I-1183 results on Capitol Hill and keep in mind that I-1100 (I believe) passed some of those No >60% precincts.

U-district 60% yes on i-1183. Who would have guessed that.

[LastVoter]

Is there any reasonable way to draw WA more Republican? There should be at least 6 safe dem seats.

[LastVoter]

Anybody think that we could be down to one Republican district after 2020 redistricting?

[LastVoter]

Weather.com Lol.

[LastVoter]

I'm proud of the Walla Walla critter that voted yes. Not so much for the rest of Eastern Washington.

[LastVoter]

Oh wow, cross cascades district is really designed to protect the incumbent Republican.
http://www.spokanegop.com/component/content/article/353-washington-state-congressional-district-map-as-adopted-by-the-redistricting-commission-on-january-1st-2012
I think this is the right map? I am not sure how taking away king county instead of pierce county can be justified for a cross cascade county except for gerrymandering/incumbent protection. If it's an I-90 district, shouldn't it actually have areas near I-90 instead of random collection of rural areas? 4 Safe Republican seats isn't cool.

[LastVoter]

That's the right map. And it's definitely an incumbent protection map, which was to be expected, though I was hoping it wouldn't be that bad.

Do democratic incumbents really need protection?

[LastVoter]

That's the right map. And it's definitely an incumbent protection map, which was to be expected, though I was hoping it wouldn't be that bad.

Do democratic incumbents really need protection?

Rick Larsen did.

Party elder Denny Heck was also treated as a de facto incumbent.

Isn't 3rd turning more Republican though?

[LastVoter]

So more continuation of death thousand austerities instead of sensible non-regressive income taxes? Eww...

[LastVoter]

So more continuation of death thousand austerities instead of sensible non-regressive income taxes? Eww...

Ha, I think you're expecting a bit much. Still, I like Inslee and would prefer him to, say, Governor Malloy the Malleable.
And Im eyeing the Pacific Coast if I choose to move.

I don't really expect that much, I'm pretty sure we will see austerity for the rest of our lives, soon on the national level. But Scott Walker is coming to Washington.

[LastVoter]

Looks like Washington is still growing fast, maybe another seat for the next re-districting process? Could finally draw that Eastern WA Democratic seat(Spokane-Whitman) if that's true.

[LastVoter]

Looks like Washington is still growing fast, maybe another seat for the next re-districting process? Could finally draw that Eastern WA Democratic seat(Spokane-Whitman) if that's true.

Way too soon to tell

What Im interested in is how much Seattle will grow. Belltown/South Lake Union/Capital Hill/First Hill's population continues to explode, and from what I've seen, it looks the current apartment boomlet will only help that (and probably continue through much of the decade). Not to mention Amazon's amazing growth plans (which means more people!).

I think Seattle's growth will exceede expectations.

Don't forget Freemont, right across the lake!
Working on  2020 neutral-committee redistricting Democratic gerrymander map right now  using same type of districts Republicans used for 2010 gerrymander.

[LastVoter]

1st(Spokane) -47.2
4th(Vantucky) - 53.1
7th(Olympics) -56.2
8th(Bellingham)- 56.5
Obama percentages. Green & Purple are votesinks, Yellow minority-majority. Is this worse or better than Republican gerrymander?

We would probably need about 20-25% growth over a decade to get another seat. I think if light rail gets built to Vancouver on time, it could experience another population boom that would be worth 200,000 in last 2 or 3 years.

[LastVoter]

light rail to Portland, I assume?

With Boeing keeping the vast majority of production instate and with one third of its workforce retiring (and needing replacement), combined with continued growth of Seattle's biotech/tech industries + Amazon AND the quick growth down in Vancouver and the Tri-cities, I'd venture to say this next decade will have a very strong growth rate.

Maybe I'm reading to much into the now, but barring another severe US economic recession, I don't see too much of a slow down.

Yea, currently planned to open in 2019. Could be quite an epic boom of high-density population in the last couple years before the census, would probably unseat the incumbent Republican in 2020 for sure. I would predict another severe recession/depression in the next decade when the gas prices rise above $5.00 a gallon. It's unlikely to stop Washington's growth though imo.

[LastVoter]

Anyone else got a better democratic gerrymander for '20?

[LastVoter]

Anyone else got a better democratic gerrymander for '20?

Not one, unless you count a hidious map.

It looks like 12 districts would be a sweet spot for Dems. I've got a solid 9-1-2 plan, that could become 11-1 in the best of D years. Spokane/Pullman district would be generally tossup and the far western eastern washington seat with republican Pierce and King counties only voted 53 for McCain (I know, a stretch seat).

I don't think we will be getting 12 districts for a while(2040) though, unless US enters a depression that would affect the suburban states the most, but than this whole discussion would be moot since that would cause a realignment. There will be a very big demographic change if we go to 11 districts by 2020 that should make 9-2 very easy, and maybe even 9-1-1 if the new demographics allow you to draw a cross-mountain or Spokane district as D while keeping the other a toss-up. Hispanic district in Eastern Washington would also be a possibility by 2020, but it would be a toss-up at best, considering the new coming Hispanics would mostly be non-voters, and it would require a very ugly gerrymander for it to work that would require two cross-mountain districts. It would include Yakima, Grant, Adams and Franklin and would take Hispanic precincts out of other counties in a very ugly manner. The Kennewick and Wenatchee splits would probably embarrass Ohio Republicans.
edit: got 36% Hispanic district that 50,000 short of required population under 11 districts.

[LastVoter]

http://www.king5.com/news/politics/Kucinich-on-a-WA-congressional-run-Im-looking-at-all-my-options-147218145.html