Official South Dakota and Montana Democratic Primary Results Discussion Thread

[Joe Biden 2020]

I combined the two states, because its easier for me to keep up with it.

[Alcon]

Might as well, honestly.

A note about South Dakota:  they have an unusual counting method.  Ballots are not tabulated at the polling places in any way.  They are driven to the county seat where they are counted up as optical scan ballots.  The lack of a verification process at the polls speeds things up slightly, I'd think, but this year the news outlets are implying this method slows stuff down.

Also, Shannon and Todd Counties do not have county seats and must drive their ballots to Hot Springs (90 miles from Batesland) and Winner (65 miles from Parmelee), respectively.  In other words, their results are going to be really late.  If anyone remembers Tim Johnson's win in 2002(?), that was what happened.

[Meeker]

Also, Shannon and Todd Counties do not have county seats and must drive their ballots to Hot Springs (90 miles from Batesland) and Winner (65 miles from Parmelee), respectively.  In other words, their results are going to be really late.  If anyone remembers Tim Johnson's win in 2002(?), that was what happened.

Further evidence that Indians should not be allowed to vote.

[Eraserhead]

When should we expect the pointless exit poll numbers to start leaking? 5 PM?

[Joe Biden 2020]

When should we expect the pointless exit poll numbers to start leaking? 5 PM?

I'm assuming.  Hey, remember, there are only two more rounds of exit polls in this federal election cycle, today and November 4.  The National Network News don't cover state primaries that much, which I guess is kind of a blessing.

[Mr. Morden]

When should we expect the pointless exit poll numbers to start leaking? 5 PM?

From the May 6th primary discussion:

This is how it tends to go:

5pm ET: The exit polling consortium releases their numbers to the networks and other media outlets, but the networks won't publicly reveal who's leading or anything like that.

~5:10pm ET: An AP story is released, which provides some fairly useless demographic info about who voted.  Over the course of the next hour, additional stories are written with some slightly less useless demographic info, along with "voters who care about X voted for candidate Y by a 72-28% margin".

~5:30pm ET: The cable networks start to drip, drip, drip with nuggets like "voters over 65 voted for Clinton 61-38", which tells you *a little*, but it's never enough to deduce the overall numbers.  (Fox News Channel tends to give away more of this stuff than the others do.)

~5:45pm ET: Websites like Drudge leak the early overall exit poll numbers that the networks won't tell you.  Who is leading, and by how much.  Of course, those leaked numbers have typically been too Obama-friendly this cycle, so who knows what you can deduce from it anyway.

That last part....leaks of the overall numbers.....doesn't always happen.  On "bigger" primary nights, like Indiana / North Carolina, there were leaks of overall numbers.  With West Virginia, no one bothered to leak overall numbers.

[Eraserhead]

Drudge has this:

"HILLARY CAMPAIGN EXPECTS 25-POINT WIN IN S DAKOTA, TOP SOURCES TELL DRUDGE..." DEVELOPING...

hmm... I hope that's based on internal polling and not the ARG poll for their sake. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little concerned now.

[Verily]

They had that up before polls opened this morning, too. *Yawn*

[Joe Biden 2020]

Drudge has this:

"HILLARY CAMPAIGN EXPECTS 25-POINT WIN IN S DAKOTA, TOP SOURCES TELL DRUDGE..." DEVELOPING...

hmm... I hope that's based on internal polling and not the ARG poll for their sake. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little concerned now.

I'm not worried.  That would only give her a net gain of roughly 3 delegates, likely to be negated by Montana, where I expect an 8-9 point win for Obama.  Plus, he is only 26-30 delegates away depending on who you look at.  Even if he loses South Dakota, he will still probably get 6 delegates, bringing it down to 20-24 delegates (if no more supers come out in the next 330 minutes).  So, don't worry, my friend.  Obama will get the nomination, most likely tonight and we will be able to start going after John McBush.

[Franzl]

Drudge has this:

"HILLARY CAMPAIGN EXPECTS 25-POINT WIN IN S DAKOTA, TOP SOURCES TELL DRUDGE..." DEVELOPING...

hmm... I hope that's based on internal polling and not the ARG poll for their sake. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little concerned now.

I'm not worried.  That would only give her a net gain of roughly 3 delegates, likely to be negated by Montana, where I expect an 8-9 point win for Obama.  Plus, he is only 26-30 delegates away depending on who you look at.  Even if he loses South Dakota, he will still probably get 6 delegates, bringing it down to 20-24 delegates (if no more supers come out in the next 330 minutes).  So, don't worry, my friend.  Obama will get the nomination, most likely tonight and we will be able to start going after John McBush.

She may win, but 25 points are absolutely absurd.

[Eraserhead]

Drudge has this:

"HILLARY CAMPAIGN EXPECTS 25-POINT WIN IN S DAKOTA, TOP SOURCES TELL DRUDGE..." DEVELOPING...

hmm... I hope that's based on internal polling and not the ARG poll for their sake. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little concerned now.

I'm not worried.  That would only give her a net gain of roughly 3 delegates, likely to be negated by Montana, where I expect an 8-9 point win for Obama.  Plus, he is only 26-30 delegates away depending on who you look at.  Even if he loses South Dakota, he will still probably get 6 delegates, bringing it down to 20-24 delegates (if no more supers come out in the next 330 minutes).  So, don't worry, my friend.  Obama will get the nomination, most likely tonight and we will be able to start going after John McBush.

You don't think losing South Dakota by 25 points would be embarrassing?  There's no excuse for that. He's swept all of the other states in that part of the country.  That would be beyond pathetic.

[Eraserhead]

Drudge has this:

"HILLARY CAMPAIGN EXPECTS 25-POINT WIN IN S DAKOTA, TOP SOURCES TELL DRUDGE..." DEVELOPING...

hmm... I hope that's based on internal polling and not the ARG poll for their sake. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little concerned now.

I'm not worried.  That would only give her a net gain of roughly 3 delegates, likely to be negated by Montana, where I expect an 8-9 point win for Obama.  Plus, he is only 26-30 delegates away depending on who you look at.  Even if he loses South Dakota, he will still probably get 6 delegates, bringing it down to 20-24 delegates (if no more supers come out in the next 330 minutes).  So, don't worry, my friend.  Obama will get the nomination, most likely tonight and we will be able to start going after John McBush.

She may win, but 25 points are absolutely absurd.

There is no excuse for her winning, even by a point.  It would look very bad for Obama.

[Alcon]

Let's not forget that, faced with the opportunity to stir up bad news for Clinton and good news for Obama, Drudge going to jump at it.  He's clearly not un-fond of Obama, and we all know what he thinks of Clinton.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Any exit polling data yet?

[Aizen]

Drudge has this:

"HILLARY CAMPAIGN EXPECTS 25-POINT WIN IN S DAKOTA, TOP SOURCES TELL DRUDGE..." DEVELOPING...

hmm... I hope that's based on internal polling and not the ARG poll for their sake. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little concerned now.

I'm not worried.  That would only give her a net gain of roughly 3 delegates, likely to be negated by Montana, where I expect an 8-9 point win for Obama.  Plus, he is only 26-30 delegates away depending on who you look at.  Even if he loses South Dakota, he will still probably get 6 delegates, bringing it down to 20-24 delegates (if no more supers come out in the next 330 minutes).  So, don't worry, my friend.  Obama will get the nomination, most likely tonight and we will be able to start going after John McBush.

She may win, but 25 points are absolutely absurd.

There is no excuse for her winning, even by a point.  It would look very bad for Obama.

Agreed. I have faith SD will go Obama though.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Drudge has this:

"HILLARY CAMPAIGN EXPECTS 25-POINT WIN IN S DAKOTA, TOP SOURCES TELL DRUDGE..." DEVELOPING...

hmm... I hope that's based on internal polling and not the ARG poll for their sake. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little concerned now.

I'm not worried.  That would only give her a net gain of roughly 3 delegates, likely to be negated by Montana, where I expect an 8-9 point win for Obama.  Plus, he is only 26-30 delegates away depending on who you look at.  Even if he loses South Dakota, he will still probably get 6 delegates, bringing it down to 20-24 delegates (if no more supers come out in the next 330 minutes).  So, don't worry, my friend.  Obama will get the nomination, most likely tonight and we will be able to start going after John McBush.

She may win, but 25 points are absolutely absurd.

There is no excuse for her winning, even by a point.  It would look very bad for Obama.

Agreed. I have faith SD will go Obama though.

Me too.

[Mr. Morden]

Any exit polling data yet?

The news organizations themselves don't even have any exit polling data yet.  They won't get it until after 5pm.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Any exit polling data yet?

The news organizations themselves don't even have any exit polling data yet.  They won't get it until after 5pm.

Gotcha, thanks Mr. M

[Alcon]

I would like to be the first to give a pre-lol to ARG.

[Flying Dog]

I would like to be the first to give a pre-lol to ARG.

seconded.

[Eraserhead]

I would like to be the first to give a pre-lol to ARG.

A lot of people already gave "pre-lols" in thread for the poll already.

[Mr. Morden]

I would like to be the first to give a pre-lol to ARG.

Wait, are you saying this Hil-mentum isn't real?:

[Mr. Morden]

Fittingly, on the last primary day, round 1 of useless exit mania reaches new heights in useless-ness.  Here is the first exit poll info:

link

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Meeker]

Fittingly, on the last primary day, round 1 of useless exit mania reaches new heights in useless-ness.  Here is the first exit poll info:

link

You must be logged in to read this quote.

OMG IT ALL MAKES SENSE NOW

[Alcon]

South Dakota:

Should Obama pick Clinton as VP?
Yes 55%
No 41%

Among Obama supporters:
Yes 40%
No 56%

"fascinating"