Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Brittain33]

Ah, yes, waiter? Can we put that champagne on hold, please?

Ha ha. No, I'm still buying a few bottles for my guests on Tuesday. It's great to draw comfort from a poll showing Obama leading big among people who have voted and tied with those who haven't yet.

[Rococo4]

Ah, yes, waiter? Can we put that champagne on hold, please?

Ha ha. No, I'm still buying a few bottles for my guests on Tuesday. It's great to draw comfort from a poll showing Obama leading big among people who have voted and tied with those who haven't yet.

well in theory they can only vote once

[Sam Spade]

This sample looks like Obama +3 (roughly).  Last two days before this were Obama +7.5 (yesterday) and McCain +1.5 (two days before).

The internals kind of show this, but an exceptional Obama sample among Democrats dropped off last evening, and that's where a good bit of the movement was.

Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 50%
McCain 47%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	50.24	(50.89	50.58	52.46	52.32%)
McCain	47.07	(46.01	45.96	44.00	44.43%)

Certain/Likely/Lean Division of Support

	Wednesday		Tuesday		Monday		Sunday		Saturday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Certain	45.53	42.76	46.36	41.60	46.30	41.04	48.34	39.16	47.76	39.93
Likely	3.65	2.29	3.68	2.28	3.32	2.56	3.27	2.81	3.39	2.80
Lean	1.05	2.03	0.86	2.14	0.96	2.36	0.95	2.04	1.17	1.70

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

	Wednesday		Tuesday		Monday		Sunday		Saturday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Democratic	85.42	12.92	87.70	10.65	88.10	10.15	89.64	8.44	88.33	9.65
Republican	10.64	87.45	10.33	87.30	10.85	86.77	12.23	85.69	12.62	85.55
Independent	50.38	44.59	49.90	44.20	46.48	46.58	48.59	44.46	49.52	44.01

[Eraserhead]

The trackers just don't seem to agree with the other national polls, as well as the state polls. Hmm.

[Tender Branson]

Predictions for today's polls:

Alaska: McCain 57, Obama 40
Michigan: Obama 54, McCain 44
Minnesota: Obama 53, McCain 44
New Mexico: Obama 52, McCain 45

[Sam Spade]

The trackers just don't seem to agree with the other national polls, as well as the state polls. Hmm.

Which other national polls?  Pew - it's internal sample sucked badly, imho.

State polls?  Tougher question to answer, unless you believe in the lag theory.  I might observe that IMO the electorate has been bumping around so much since the economic crisis, poll results have been quite jagged as a result.

[Democratic Hawk]

No, I feel strongly about Election 2008 and when things need to be said, then I'll say it

Dave

But everyone here already knows how you feel, and many probably object to aggressive partisan evangelism in a polling thread...so why does it need to be (re-re-re-re)said?

I'm not agressively Democratic; far from it. And I'm certainly not stridently ideological, one way or another

Dave

[Alcon]

No, I feel strongly about Election 2008 and when things need to be said, then I'll say it

Dave

But everyone here already knows how you feel, and many probably object to aggressive partisan evangelism in a polling thread...so why does it need to be (re-re-re-re)said?

I'm not agressively Democratic; far from it. And I'm certainly not stridently ideological, one way or another

Dave

The 'aggressively' part was really the paramount point, not the word that it was modifying.

[MODU]

The trackers just don't seem to agree with the other national polls, as well as the state polls. Hmm.

That's why I don't put any faith in polls, especially this year.  There are so many new variables in play that I don't think the pollsters can really accurate account for them.

[ps79]

This sample looks like Obama +3 (roughly).  Last two days before this were Obama +7.5 (yesterday) and McCain +1.5 (two days before).

The internals kind of show this, but an exceptional Obama sample among Democrats dropped off last evening, and that's where a good bit of the movement was.

Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 50%
McCain 47%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	50.24	(50.89	50.58	52.46	52.32%)
McCain	47.07	(46.01	45.96	44.00	44.43%)

Certain/Likely/Lean Division of Support

	Wednesday		Tuesday		Monday		Sunday		Saturday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Certain	45.53	42.76	46.36	41.60	46.30	41.04	48.34	39.16	47.76	39.93
Likely	3.65	2.29	3.68	2.28	3.32	2.56	3.27	2.81	3.39	2.80
Lean	1.05	2.03	0.86	2.14	0.96	2.36	0.95	2.04	1.17	1.70

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

	Wednesday		Tuesday		Monday		Sunday		Saturday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Democratic	85.42	12.92	87.70	10.65	88.10	10.15	89.64	8.44	88.33	9.65
Republican	10.64	87.45	10.33	87.30	10.85	86.77	12.23	85.69	12.62	85.55
Independent	50.38	44.59	49.90	44.20	46.48	46.58	48.59	44.46	49.52	44.01

I expected something worse for Obama in these numbers. It's just that his overall Dem support slipped a little bit, and McCain winning his base by larger numbers but among independents Obama is above 50% again.

[Ronnie]

I will get excited if Obama gets under 50%, and it reverts to a tie.  I have a feeling this is just statistical noise, though.

[TheGlobalizer]

J.J. JSojourner, and Opebo will be going nuts.

I can see it now . Four more years of the relentless attack on middle class living standards, the erosion of the quality of life for millions, the outsourcing of American livelihoods ...

McCain disgusts me. It's pathetic that he can only win (and he will, I'm certain of that) this thing thanks to lies, deceit, smears, scaremongering and, worse still, as a consquence of those factors, the incitement of hatred towards a political opponent

I've lost all respect I ever had for McCain beyond his service in Vietnam

Dave

Oh, Christ, enough!

No, I feel strongly about Election 2008 and when things need to be said, then I'll say it

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Believe me the tears will soon pass. I'll be back into kick-ass mode sooner than you can wink

Dave

[TheGlobalizer]

Believe me the tears will soon pass. I'll be back into kick-ass mode sooner than you can wink

Dave

LOL.  You'll get acclimated to a McCain presidency in no time. 

[Reaganfan]

J.J. JSojourner, and Opebo will be going nuts.

I can see it now . Four more years of the relentless attack on middle class living standards, the erosion of the quality of life for millions, the outsourcing of American livelihoods ...

MORE OF THE SAME 2008!!

[ucscgaldamez]

Democratic hawk:

What makes you 100% certain that McCain will win?

I expected this race to tighten at the end. I don't see how anyone can say with 100% certainty that one candidate or the other will win.

Who will win these states?
Nevada
New Mexico
Iowa
Colorado
Pennsylvania?

[opebo]

J.J. JSojourner, and Opebo will be going nuts.

I can see it now . Four more years of the relentless attack on middle class living standards, the erosion of the quality of life for millions, the outsourcing of American livelihoods ...

McCain disgusts me. It's pathetic that he can only win (and he will, I'm certain of that) this thing thanks to lies, deceit, smears, scaremongering and, worse still, as a consquence of those factors, the incitement of hatred towards a political opponent

Its what america is all about, Democratic Hawk.

Btw, this poll is tightening just as expected.  I've altered my prediction accordingly.

[Iosif]

A good McCain sample drops off tomorrow, Obama should gain a point or two.

[Boris]

Is Rassy releasing any state polls today? If so, I wonder if they'll conform to our expectation of what a 50-47 Obama lead would look like...

[Lief 🗽]

Well, they don't: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=86884.0

Which leads me to believe that Obama isn't really only leading by 3.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

State polls always lag behind national ones. I wouldn't expect the ones released today to show any tightening much at all.

[Lief 🗽]

State polls always lag behind national ones. I wouldn't expect the ones released today to show any tightening much at all.

No, they don't. That doesn't make any sense, as has been pointed out on this forum many times before. They appear to lag behind them, because they're usually released later, but today's Rasmussen polls were conducted yesterday and released today.

[Alcon]

State polls always lag behind national ones. I wouldn't expect the ones released today to show any tightening much at all.

Even polls conducted on the same day?  Totally!  Let me remind everyone:

Pollster: Hello, I'm calling to ask for your Presidential preference.

Voter: Wait, is this a state or national poll?

Pollster: State.

Voter: In that case, the man I supported three days ago, Barack Obama!

[Rowan]

State polls always lag behind national ones. I wouldn't expect the ones released today to show any tightening much at all.

Even polls conducted on the same day?  Totally!  Let me remind everyone:

Pollster: Hello, I'm calling to ask for your Presidential preference.

Voter: Wait, is this a state or national poll?

Pollster: State.

Voter: In that case, the man I supported three days ago, Barack Obama!

It's the "bandwagon" effect of the polls though. What I mean is that if people see that McCain is now closer in the national poll, they are more likely to poll for him. No one wants to poll for a loser.

[elcorazon]

State polls always lag behind national ones. I wouldn't expect the ones released today to show any tightening much at all.

Even polls conducted on the same day?  Totally!  Let me remind everyone:

Pollster: Hello, I'm calling to ask for your Presidential preference.

Voter: Wait, is this a state or national poll?

Pollster: State.

Voter: In that case, the man I supported three days ago, Barack Obama!

It's the "bandwagon" effect of the polls though. What I mean is that if people see that McCain is now closer in the national poll, they are more likely to poll for him. No one wants to poll for a loser.

that just means that trends will pick up once they start.  that makes no distinction between state/national polls.

I think that it seems like there is a lag for 3 reasons:

1) some state polls are not released immediately, while most national polls come out right away;
2) more state polls take place over multiple days so that they are a bit old when they come out; and
3) when we look at national maps consisting of all the states in their various colors, many of these are created based on state polls, the majority of which do NOT reflect the latest trends in the national polls... mostly because they haven't been polled as recently.

National polls by definition are always semi-current and they are constantly being conducted.  Weeks, even months occasionally pass between reputable state polls.