Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]
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Author Topic: Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]  (Read 498490 times)
phk
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« Reply #225 on: July 18, 2008, 05:27:03 PM »
« edited: July 18, 2008, 05:35:53 PM by phknrocket1k »

Friday - July 18, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 46% (nc)

There has been much discussion about the potential demographic changes brought about by Obama’s historic candidacy and the fact that he won the nomination by ending Hillary Clinton’s historic candidacy. Rasmussen Reports reviewed data from our July polling and found somewhat surprisingly that Obama’s support looks a lot like John Kerry’s. The only big difference is that Obama is currently doing about five points better against McCain than Kerry did against George W. Bush.

Four years ago, exit polls showed Bush defeating Kerry among white men by a 62% to 37% margin. Today, Obama is doing four points better than that and trails 58% to 37% among white men.

The tale is the same among white women. Bush won that demographic by eleven percentage points, 55% to 44%. Obama is doing five points better and trails by only six, 48% to 42%.

Among non-white females, Obama leads by fifty-four points, up three from Kerry’s margin of fifty-one points. However, Obama lags a bit among non-white males. This year’s presumptive nominee leads by twenty-nine points among that group, down from Kerry’s thirty-seven point margin.


So, Obama's lead is small because Minority Men don't support him by the margin they supported Kerry... this seems wrong

Latinos and Asians?

I know a few minority females (Asians) that are for McCain. One of whom would move out of the country if a Black man was ever elected.
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Sbane
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« Reply #226 on: July 19, 2008, 01:27:50 AM »

Friday - July 18, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 46% (nc)

There has been much discussion about the potential demographic changes brought about by Obama’s historic candidacy and the fact that he won the nomination by ending Hillary Clinton’s historic candidacy. Rasmussen Reports reviewed data from our July polling and found somewhat surprisingly that Obama’s support looks a lot like John Kerry’s. The only big difference is that Obama is currently doing about five points better against McCain than Kerry did against George W. Bush.

Four years ago, exit polls showed Bush defeating Kerry among white men by a 62% to 37% margin. Today, Obama is doing four points better than that and trails 58% to 37% among white men.

The tale is the same among white women. Bush won that demographic by eleven percentage points, 55% to 44%. Obama is doing five points better and trails by only six, 48% to 42%.

Among non-white females, Obama leads by fifty-four points, up three from Kerry’s margin of fifty-one points. However, Obama lags a bit among non-white males. This year’s presumptive nominee leads by twenty-nine points among that group, down from Kerry’s thirty-seven point margin.


So, Obama's lead is small because Minority Men don't support him by the margin they supported Kerry... this seems wrong

Latinos and Asians?

I know a few minority females (Asians) that are for McCain. One of whom would move out of the country if a Black man was ever elected.

OOOh racist asians, now that is a socal speciality isnt it.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #227 on: July 19, 2008, 08:44:22 AM »

Saturday - July 19, 2008:

McCain - 46% (nc)
Obama - 46% (-1)

Favorable Ratings:

McCain - 56% favorable, 41% unfavorable (nc, nc)
Obama - 55% favorable, 42% unfavorable (nc, -1)
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Rowan
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« Reply #228 on: July 19, 2008, 09:09:32 AM »

Looks like we have stabilized to a tie.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #229 on: July 19, 2008, 09:43:15 AM »

For God's sake....
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #230 on: July 19, 2008, 09:46:08 AM »


Favorable Ratings:

McCain - 56% favorable, 41% unfavorable (nc, nc)
Obama - 55% favorable, 42% unfavorable (nc, -1)

McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, Obama by 55%. Obama is clearly the defining candidate of the race and energizes both sides of the political divide more than McCain. The presumptive Democratic nominee is viewed Very Favorably by 53% of Democrats and Very Unfavorably by 51% of Republicans. McCain generates less passion and less intense opposition. He is viewed Very Favorably by 38% of Republicans and Very Unfavorably by 31% of Democrats.

Among unaffiliated voters, 20% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 24% have a Very Unfavorable opinion. For McCain, the numbers among unaffiliated voters are 14% Very Favorable and 14% Very Unfavorable.
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J. J.
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« Reply #231 on: July 19, 2008, 09:46:42 AM »

Looks like we have stabilized to a tie.

I would certainly say close.
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opebo
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« Reply #232 on: July 19, 2008, 10:02:54 AM »

I know a few minority females (Asians) that are for McCain. One of whom would move out of the country if a Black man was ever elected.

Good riddance.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #233 on: July 19, 2008, 10:37:40 AM »

Interestingly, nationally in tracking polls, the race is tight - but, at this point, Gallup reported a similarly tight race between Reagan and Carter in 1980

The challenge for Obama is to do what Reagan did before him - cross the "acceptability threshold".  Doubts linger with Obama. That much is evident

Nevertheless, the contours between 1980 and 2008, in terms of the macro-environment, are there. The only exception being the incumbent president is not on the ballot

Meanwhile, two things work to McCain's advantage:

1. The fact that McCain, as a former prisoner of war in Vietnam, has a compelling story of heroism to tell, which adds substance to his character

2. The "myth of the maverick" that has been peddled by a media infatuated with McCain has also helped him to attain a standing higher than that of his president or party despite the John McCain of 2008 actually being more like the George W Bush of 2000 than he is the John McCain of 2000, which doesn't exactly inspire much confidence. Not from me anyway

Yes, McCain is, undoubtedly, a more experienced legislator than Obama (given that he's been on Capitol Hill since Adam were a lad that much is indisputable) but when that experience has been aligned with George W Bush, whom the vast majority of Americans disapprove and under whom a clear majority feel the country is on the wrong track, 90% of the time, should it really be good grounds for promotion?

Dave
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Rowan
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« Reply #234 on: July 19, 2008, 10:47:45 AM »

But also at this point during the sumer, Carter led Ford 62-29.
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Umengus
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« Reply #235 on: July 19, 2008, 11:14:20 AM »

Each election is special. Historic comparaisons are useless.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #236 on: July 19, 2008, 02:02:35 PM »

You guys were right! This election is over!
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Alcon
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« Reply #237 on: July 19, 2008, 02:04:21 PM »


Who exactly are "you guys"?  I've heard maybe four people say the election was over, ever, and two of them were pessimistic Republicans.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #238 on: July 20, 2008, 08:32:52 AM »

Sunday - July 20, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 45% (-1)
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elcorazon
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« Reply #239 on: July 20, 2008, 09:04:10 AM »

Looks like we have stabilized to a tie.
more like Obama up 1-2% or so, a drop of 2-3% from where the race appeared to be previously.
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Rowan
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« Reply #240 on: July 20, 2008, 09:11:50 AM »

Looks like the rock star tour bounce has begun.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #241 on: July 20, 2008, 10:51:59 AM »

I know a few minority females (Asians) that are for McCain. One of whom would move out of the country if a Black man was ever elected.

Good riddance.
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J. J.
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« Reply #242 on: July 20, 2008, 11:03:22 AM »

Looks like we have stabilized to a tie.
more like Obama up 1-2% or so, a drop of 2-3% from where the race appeared to be previously.

0-3 points is my guess; in Gallup, there seems to be a weekend upswing for Obama, which should be out by Wednesday.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #243 on: July 21, 2008, 08:49:34 AM »

Monday, July 21, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 42% / 46%, including leaners (-2, -1)
McCain: 41% / 45%, including leaners (nc, nc)

McCain is currently supported by 86% of Republicans and holds a modest--four percentage point—lead among unaffiliated voters. Obama earns the vote from 77% of Democrats

Today, at noon Eastern, data will be released on the Presidential race in Georgia. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, data will be released on the Senate races in Georgia and Alaska. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, data will be released on the Presidential race in Alaska.


Favorability

McCain: 57% favorable; - % unfavorable (+2, -)
Obama: 53% favorable; - % unfavorable (-2, -)

If McCain wins because of Democrats, I might as well lose all reason to live
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #244 on: July 21, 2008, 08:51:04 AM »

That's exactly right.  Democrats who vote for a Republican should be shot and Republicans who vote for a Democrat, well...
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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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« Reply #245 on: July 21, 2008, 09:38:50 AM »

That's exactly right.  Democrats who vote for a Republican should be shot and Republicans who vote for a Democrat, well...

I might have endorsed McCain in 2004 had he either challenged Bush, a failing president as of then, and defeated him for the GOP nomination or ran as an Independent. 2008? No chance. McCain is more Bush than he is McCain these days. Sod any more of that suffering

Dave
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Saxwsylvania
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« Reply #246 on: July 21, 2008, 10:14:50 AM »

That's exactly right.  Democrats who vote for a Republican should be shot and Republicans who vote for a Democrat, well...

I might have endorsed McCain in 2004 had he either challenged Bush, a failing president as of then, and defeated him for the GOP nomination or ran as an Independent. 2008? No chance. McCain is more Bush than he is McCain these days. Sod any more of that suffering

Dave

More evidence that Hawk has been replaced by a robot.  Mention a political name and it will spit out a pre-formulated assessment!
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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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« Reply #247 on: July 21, 2008, 06:44:33 PM »

That's exactly right.  Democrats who vote for a Republican should be shot and Republicans who vote for a Democrat, well...

I might have endorsed McCain in 2004 had he either challenged Bush, a failing president as of then, and defeated him for the GOP nomination or ran as an Independent. 2008? No chance. McCain is more Bush than he is McCain these days. Sod any more of that suffering

Dave

More evidence that Hawk has been replaced by a robot.  Mention a political name and it will spit out a pre-formulated assessment!

A robot today, am I? Heck, I was Gore Vidal the other week! .... Wink

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Sam Spade
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« Reply #248 on: July 22, 2008, 10:46:26 AM »

Since no one did this today, in the form of Hawk:

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 43% / 46%, including leaners (+1, nc)
McCain: 42% / 46%, including leaners (+1, +1)

Favorability

McCain: 57% favorable; - % unfavorable (+2, -)
Obama: 55% favorable; - % unfavorable (+2, -)
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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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« Reply #249 on: July 22, 2008, 01:44:36 PM »

Since no one did this today, in the form of Hawk:

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 43% / 46%, including leaners (+1, nc)
McCain: 42% / 46%, including leaners (+1, +1)

Favorability

McCain: 57% favorable; - % unfavorable (-, -)
Obama: 55% favorable; - % unfavorable (+2, -)

When leaners are included, Obama leads by six points among women while McCain has a seven point edge among men. McCain is currently supported by 85% of Republicans and holds a modest six percentage point lead among unaffiliated voters. Obama earns the vote from 77% of Democrats
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