Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Ronnie]

Wow, you Democrats were right! The Obama nomination clinching bump was HUGEEE!!!

47-45 lead to 48-45 lead in the Rasmussen tracking poll.  AMAZING!!!

Expect the polls to slowly trend in Obama's favor.  Things like these don't happen overnight.

[Sam Spade]

Wow, you Democrats were right! The Obama nomination clinching bump was HUGEEE!!!

47-45 lead to 48-45 lead in the Rasmussen tracking poll.  AMAZING!!!

Expect the polls to slowly trend in Obama's favor.  Things like these don't happen overnight.

Actually, a number of things can happen here.  Quite frankly, more than Alcon seems to be implying that I said.  In truth, I was really only referring to the next couple of weeks in my original statement.

My statement above actually gives some meaning to one possible result, which is in fact, rather counterintuitive.

[J. J.]

I'm interested in the "rally effect," if any.  There may not be a bump, or a minor one, due to disaffected Clinton voters.

[Tender Branson]

Sunday June 8, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 48% / 50%, including leaners (+2, +2)
McCain: 40% / 43%, including leaners (-2, -2)

Obama’s bounce is the result of growing unity among the Democratic Party. Eighty-one percent (81%) of Democrats say they will vote for Obama over McCain. That’s the highest level of party support ever enjoyed by Obama. Still, three-out-of-ten voters are either uncommitted or could change their mind before Election Day. Fifty-six percent (56%) of those swayable voters are women and most earn less than $60,000 a year.

Favorability

Obama: 58% favorable; 41% unfavorable (+3, -1)
McCain: 52% favorable; 45% unfavorable (-3, +2)

Tonight (Sunday), at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data for South Carolina, and Texas. Additional state surveys will be released on Monday.

[Aizen]

An 8 point lead? Nice. McCain is getting obliterated right now.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Nice to see a bounce starting to appear. Hopefully it settles.

[Ronnie]

8 points? Crap.  If this settles until the general election, Obama is probably going to get all of the swing states, plus a couple bonuses.  Thankfully, it probably won't.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

8 points? Crap.  If this settles until the general election, Obama is probably going to get all of the swing states, plus a couple bonuses.  Thankfully, it probably won't.

What would an 8 pt win for Obama look like?  53-45 in the PV with 2% going to others (last times that happened was Bush v. Dukakis). 

393-145 would be nice....

This isn't going to happen though. 

[Lief 🗽]

Tonight (Sunday), at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data for South Carolina, and Texas. Additional state surveys will be released on Monday.

Awesome! South Carolina has had only one poll so far this year, and I've been wanting another one for a while now.

[Keystone Phil]

An 8 point lead? Nice. McCain is getting obliterated right now.

Tomorrow's election is going to be a bloodbath!

[Eraserhead]

Wow, you Democrats were right! The Obama nomination clinching bump was HUGEEE!!!

47-45 lead to 48-45 lead in the Rasmussen tracking poll.  AMAZING!!!

Uh-oh... looks like you spoke to soon Mr. King.

[King]

Wow, you Democrats were right! The Obama nomination clinching bump was HUGEEE!!!

47-45 lead to 48-45 lead in the Rasmussen tracking poll.  AMAZING!!!

Uh -oh... looks like you spoke to soon Mr. King.

Indeed.  A day too early.

[Tender Branson]

Monday June 9, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 48% / 50%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Obama is supported by 81% of Democrats and now holds a very modest three-point edge over McCain among unaffiliated voters. Both those figures reflect a significant improvement over the past week. McCain attracts 83% of Republicans. Still, 30% of all voters either have no preference at this time or could change their vote before Election Day.

Favorability

Obama: 59% favorable; 40% unfavorable (+1, -1)
McCain: 53% favorable; 44% unfavorable (+1, -1)

At noon today, data will be released on where voters see Obama and McCain ideologically. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, state polling data will be released for Senate races in Texas, New Jersey and other states. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, state polling data on the Presidential race will be released for Wisconsin, New Jersey, and other states.

[J. J.]

The end campaign boost.  We'll see what it's like om 6/15.

[Gustaf]

Wtf happened with Obama's favourables. That jump is a bit insane in such a short period of time.

[Alcon]

Wtf happened with Obama's favourables. That jump is a bit insane in such a short period of time.

I was expecting a gradual increase as Clinton people started flowing back to Obama...instead apparently it was almost overnight.   It's nice to see that I, again, overestimated the sincerity of the American voting public.

The bump among unaffiliated voters seems less likely to last, though.  Not that it matters.  If Obama wins Democrats by the same clip McCain wins Republicans, McCain would have to do stellar among independents to win.

And it still seems hard to imagine that all of the Clinton spite voters have returned home...the immediacy of this bump baffles me.

[HardRCafé]

There is no way in Hades that Georgia goes Obama before Arkansas.

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday June 10, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 48% / 50%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 43%, including leaners (nc, -1)

Favorability

Obama: 59% favorable; 40% unfavorable (nc, nc)
McCain: 54% favorable; 43% unfavorable (+1, -1)

[Lief 🗽]

Gallup and Rasmussen both show the race settling into a 7-8 point Obama lead, about the margin I expect Obama to win by come November.

[TheresNoMoney]

Bush had a 1.5% lead for Rasmussen at this point in 2004.

[Eraserhead]

There is no way in Hades that Georgia goes Obama before Arkansas.

Sure there is (although neither have any chance of vorting for him anyway).

[Person Man]

Ehhh... This is what I expect.

Obama 52%
McCain 47%

...but it could turn out to be a landslide.

[King]

Obama: 59% favorable; 40% unfavorable (nc, nc)
McCain: 54% favorable; 43% unfavorable (+1, -1)

In other words, from now until November this is going to be your basic Obama-McCain poll.

Obama 43%, McCain 40%, Undecided 17%

Various bumps and small "scandals" will likely influence who that 17% will be from week to week which is why the tracking poll varies so much, but it's still 17% who can go either way regardless. I expect the battle for the last 17 to be a good one.

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday June 11, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (-2, -1)
McCain: 41% / 44%, including leaners (+1, +1)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; 42% unfavorable (-3, +2)
McCain: 55% favorable; 42% unfavorable (+1, -1)

Issues

45% (+1) trust McCain most when it comes to economic issues and managing the economy while 42% (+2) prefer Obama.

On national security issues such as the War in Iraq and the War on Terrorism, 49% (-2) have more trust in McCain while 41% (+4) prefer Obama.

[Reaganfan]

Wednesday June 11, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (-2, -1)
McCain: 41% / 44%, including leaners (+1, +1)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; 42% unfavorable (-3, +2)
McCain: 55% favorable; 42% unfavorable (+1, -1)

Issues

45% (+1) trust McCain most when it comes to economic issues and managing the economy while 42% (+2) prefer Obama.

On national security issues such as the War in Iraq and the War on Terrorism, 49% (-2) have more trust in McCain while 41% (+4) prefer Obama.

A former Clinton advisor put it this way:

"You can a candidate who can't win (Obama), nominated by a party (Democratic) that can't lose. At the same time you have a candidate who is going to win (McCain), nominated by a party (Republican) destined to lose."