Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Sam Spade]

I don't think RAS is using the weights that he claims to be using...

Just did the math and you're right.

[Rowan]

Applying the D +7.2 weights that he claims to use, the topline number would be:
Obama 51.93%
McCain 45.22%

[Sam Spade]

Applying the D +7.2 weights that he claims to use, the topline number would be:
Obama 51.93%
McCain 45.22%

There are two possible responses, Rowan (I PMed it to you, but it deserves to be posted publicly:

1) He's seeing some sharp shift these past few days or week in partisan ID in his D/R/I sample he conducts separately for his weightings that he wants to correct for. (for fear of a 2000 result when he had way too many Republicans).  The weighting is being pulled back to about D+4 to D+5%, according to my math.

It's still not good that he's not being honest about this, but it's better than the 2nd answer.

2) He's pulling a Zogby (who's been known to do this before).  That means, he's changing the weighting or the numbers to get the results he wants to see.  In fact, I have to be quite honest that Zogby is probably doing it right now (since I am him )

[Reds4]

Interesting that you two note that.. I was just thinking that this morning in fact. Rassy's numbers don't seem to add up... weird... I hope there is a jump in GOP, but I doubt it... strange stuff

[Sam Spade]

Interesting that you two note that.. I was just thinking that this morning in fact. Rassy's numbers don't seem to add up... weird... I hope there is a jump in GOP, but I doubt it... strange stuff

Well, it could be, he just can't add. (option #3). 

But one of the top two options has to be correct.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Nice!

[pepper11]

Friday October 31

Obama 51 (nc)
McCain 47 (+1)

[Ronnie]

I'd rather want Obama be under 50% and have a 4 point lead.

[Tender Branson]

I think tomorrow the good McCain sample will fall off, right ?

[Franzl]

I think tomorrow the good McCain sample will fall off, right ?

What good McCain sample?

I think there are two Obama +3 samples....and this last one would probably be about Obama +5, to push the average up to O+4 over three days.

The reason it still went down today wasn't the last sample...but the fact that O+7.5 fell off, I believe.

[Sam Spade]

I did the table, but it got lost (ugh!)  So you're going to have to wait until later.

[Tender Branson]

BTW, Rasmussen's schedule today:

10:30 a.m. Eastern: 45% Missed All of Obama's 30-Minute Ad
Noon Eastern: 63% Say Obama More Likely to Restrict Gun Rights
Noon Eastern: Georgia Senate
Noon Eastern: New Hampshire Senate
Noon Eastern: Oregon Senate
3 p.m. Eastern: Georgia President
3 p.m. Eastern: New Hampshire President
3 p.m. Eastern: Maine Senate
3 p.m. Eastern: Maine President

[TheresNoMoney]

I would be very happy if Obama reached 51% and won by at least 4%.

[J. J.]

I would be very happy if Obama reached 51% and won by at least 4%.

It's looking good for Obama, but it's going to be close.

[Lief 🗽]

I would be very happy if Obama reached 51% and won by at least 4%.

It's looking good for Obama, but it's going to be close.

Not really. I mean, historically, sure, but we won't be up much past 11 eastern.

[Eraserhead]

Gallup and Scott are in two very different places.

[Sarnstrom]

Saturday November 1, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (-1)

[Eraserhead]

Okay. Good.

[Franzl]

+3, +3, +5 is what made it a +4 average yesterday, I think. (maybe Sam can comfirm whether that's true or not?)

if it is, then one +3 fell off....leaving the +3, +5...and by my calculation, at least +6 today...which would be an excellent result only a couple of days before the election.

[Iosif]

I believe it's +6, +6, +3 or there abouts.

Which makes the PA poll today even more confusing. PA 2% more Republican than the national average? Really?

Even if McCain somehow miraculously pulls in PA, he still needs to hold all of FL, NC, MO, IN and NV. Somehow I don't see that happening.

CO and VA are gone for him.

[J. J.]

Saturday November 1, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (-1)

That's in line with the rest of the polls.

I can very easily believe that PA is trending more Republican in this election.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Saturday November 1, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (-1)

Thanks be... lol

[Franzl]

I believe it's +6, +6, +3 or there abouts.

Which makes the PA poll today even more confusing. PA 2% more Republican than the national average? Really?
Even if McCain somehow miraculously pulls in PA, he still needs to hold all of FL, NC, MO, IN and NV. Somehow I don't see that happening.

CO and VA are gone for him.

I wouldn't try to find a connection between his national and state polls...It's been terrible the last couple of days and weeks.

[Kalimantan]

I believe it's +6, +6, +3 or there abouts.

Which makes the PA poll today even more confusing. PA 2% more Republican than the national average? Really?

If PA is as racist as Phil and others claim it is, then maybe it will come down on the R side of the coin this year. I prefer not to think ill of my fellow countrymen however.

[RJ]

That's in line with the rest of the polls.

I can very easily believe that PA is trending more Republican in this election.

If PA goes for Obama by a greater percentage than the national PV, will you still be singing the same tune??? I can't remember the last time that happened.