Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Sam Spade]

Be patient about bounces.  Also, be realistic about what they actually mean.  It should happen that a bounce will occur, but there are a few reasons in my head why none may occur right now.  It is hard to tell.

[Sam Spade]

It will probably take 3-4 days for any "rally effect," June 15-16 should be the most telling.

I honestly think the "returning to the ideological norm" bump has the greater potential than the "rally effect," assuming rally also includes excitement about having a Dem nominee.  I'm not sure this is going to be a sudden bump.  Sam and I seem to be the only one who think this though.

Remember that "returns to the ideological norms" can flow both ways, especially considering when the original movement occurred.

[Sam Spade]

Wow, you Democrats were right! The Obama nomination clinching bump was HUGEEE!!!

47-45 lead to 48-45 lead in the Rasmussen tracking poll.  AMAZING!!!

Expect the polls to slowly trend in Obama's favor.  Things like these don't happen overnight.

Actually, a number of things can happen here.  Quite frankly, more than Alcon seems to be implying that I said.  In truth, I was really only referring to the next couple of weeks in my original statement.

My statement above actually gives some meaning to one possible result, which is in fact, rather counterintuitive.

[Sam Spade]

There's just a lot of uncertainty in the world.

Seriously though, this race has a lot more flexibility than 2004.  Instead of 47% of people immovable - this race probably has less than 45%, maybe more like 43% on each side.  But less than the 40% you saw in elections prior to the 1990s.

The number of undecideds doesn't surprise me at all.  And the fact that people are moving towards undecided is even less surprising.

That's the reason why I say - patience.

[Sam Spade]

It's either the addition of a strong McCain sample or the removal of a strong Obama sample - only time will tell. 

OTOH, Gallup has already shown the classic tracking-poll draw down - from Obama +6 to Obama +4.  We'll see whether that continues.

[Sam Spade]

Hawk - it's 49-43, not 49-42.

[Sam Spade]

Just FYI - if there's any movement in these polls going on at present (because there's nothing in the news that should be affecting the numbers), it is probably more about the growth or decline in the enthusiasm of certain groups.

[Sam Spade]

How many days in their tracking poll?

three.

[Sam Spade]

That's exactly right.  Democrats who vote for a Republican should be shot and Republicans who vote for a Democrat, well...

[Sam Spade]

Since no one did this today, in the form of Hawk:
Tuesday, July 22, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 43% / 46%, including leaners (+1, nc)
McCain: 42% / 46%, including leaners (+1, +1)

Favorability

McCain: 57% favorable; - % unfavorable (+2, -)
Obama: 55% favorable; - % unfavorable (+2, -)

[Sam Spade]

Hawk - with leaners it's 47-46, not 47-45.

[Sam Spade]

As the worm turns...

[Sam Spade]

As the worm turns...

Worm being very apt (slimey things) and John McCain is a slimeball if nothing else

Hawk, I don't know why you continue to degrade yourself with simple partisan musings.  It's below you.  I really haven't said much on this before, but it's not particularly enlightening nor informative nor really very nice.

[Sam Spade]

As the worm turns...

Worm being very apt (slimey things) and John McCain is a slimeball if nothing else

Hawk, I don't know why you continue to degrade yourself with simple partisan musings.  It's below you.  I really haven't said much on this before, but it's not particularly enlightening nor informative nor really very nice.

"As the worm turns..." There is a reference I am missing, or is this a case of pot and kettle?

I was having fun.  Hawk is taking me too seriously.

[Sam Spade]

I'm sorry, but that is bull, and people ask me why I say Rasmussen is lean toward the republicans.

What's bull about it?  It's essentially supported by Gallup.  There's not really any proof that it is bull, even if the proof that it isn't is somewhat thin.

Not to mention that it's supported by Zogby...

Sorry, Alcon - I had to get that line in.

[Sam Spade]

Note that exactly 4 years ago Bush moved ahead of Kerry indefinitely. Only a few dubious polls (Zogby/Harris) from Mid-August on had Kerry slightly ahead. All others started showing Bush up by 5-10. Rasmussen for example noted that Kerry never led in their weekly tracking average from August 19 on to Election Day. It's very different this year: If we include the Research2000 poll that was somehow not included in the RCP average, Obama currently leads by 5%. Even if we just take into account Rasmussen and Gallup, it's Obama by 3-4%. Another point: I want an Indiana poll ... soon if possible !

Is there a point to this?  The Bush 5-10 point lead had to do with a couple of things - first off Republican overpolling after Labor Day and depression in Democratic enthusiasm after the GOP convention, which might have actually shown up on election day if Bush had knocked it out of the park on the first debate (not that Bush would have won by 10 points, 5 points with lowered Dem enthusiasm is possible).

Anyway, I digress.  You want to believe your average - that's fine.   

The fact is that the race is roughly about Obama +2% right now, as it has been since the second week of July.  Before that, it had been roughly about Obama +4% since he clinched the nomination in early July.

The important thing is to note where this 2% shift came from.  It does not come from Obama losing any of his hard voters.  Rather, it comes from McCain hardening a percentage of some of his former soft leaners, with corresponding smaller shifts in Obama leaners and true undecided. (which explains why pushing leaners is about even or slightly favoring Obama as opposed to before when it always favored McCain)

[Sam Spade]

In the form of Hawk...
Tuesday, August 12, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 43% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Favorability

McCain: 56% favorable / ? unfavorable (nc, n/a)
Obama: 55% favorable / ? unfavorable (nc, n/a)

Obama is supported by 77% of Democrats while McCain earns the vote from 85% of Republicans. The two candidates are essentially even among unaffiliated voters.

Just 19% believe the nation is generally heading in the right direction while 76% disagree and say the United States has gotten off on the wrong track. Ninety percent (90%) of Democrats say the nation is on the wrong track along with 59% of Republicans and 76% of those not affiliated with either major party.

[Sam Spade]

No Rassy polls today?

Just some useless policy issue questions it looks like.

[Sam Spade]

Looks like there might be a slight move back to Obama of a couple of points this past week, but I'm not 100% sure yet.

[Sam Spade]

This isn't a good sign for McCain, in 2004 this is when Bush moved ahead of Kerry.

I thought it wasn't until after the conventions. If I remember right, Kerry didn't get a bounce from the convention while Bush did. It only got worse after the Swift Boat Frauds.

We were a good three weeks after the Dem convention at this point in 2004.  And also mostly through the second week of the Swift Boat thingy.

[Sam Spade]

In the form of Hawk...
Thursday - August 14, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 43% / 47%, including leaners (-1, -1)
McCain: 42% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Obama leads among voters who make less than $40,000 a year or more than $100,000 annually. McCain leads above those in between. Among Investors, McCain leads 50% to 45% while Obama leads among non-Investors 53% to 40%

Favorability

Obama: 54% favorable, 44% unfavorable (-2, nc)
McCain: 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)

At noon Eastern today, new data will be released on the Fairness Doctrine and the Virginia Senate race. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern today, the latest data for the Minnesota Senate race and the Colorado Senate race will be released. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, the latest numbers will be released on the Presidential race in Minnesota and Colorado.

[Sam Spade]

In the form of Hawk...
Saturday - August 16, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 43% / 46%, including leaners (-1, -1)
McCain: 41% / 45%, including leaners (nc, -1)

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, -1)
McCain: 54% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, -1)

[Sam Spade]

It's amazing how similar the numbers from today are compared with the week before the 2004 DEM convention. Rasmussen showed Kerry ahead by 0.8% in the week before the DNC and RCP had Kerry ahead by 1-3%. Today, it's Obama by 1 and by 3-4% at RCP. The week ending with August 19, 2004 was also the last time that Rasmussen showed Kerry leading.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2004/week_by_week_numbers

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/bush_vs_kerry_historical.html

Probably summer polling bias for both figures (on the part of crappier firms that don't have such high samples and no weights).  We'll see.  Obama's lead is probably somewhere around 2%, though it may have eroded to 1.5% and possibly even to 1% (though if it were 1%, I would expect some more days with McCain leads).

[Sam Spade]

Wednesday, August 20, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 47%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 42% / 46%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable, 43% unfavorable (+2, -2)
McCain: 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)

New data will be released for the New Hampshire Senate race at 3:00 p.m. Eastern today. Presidential race results for Maryland and New Hampshire will be released at 5:00 p.m. Eastern.

First Maryland poll in ages, yippee!

[Sam Spade]

Might be a bounce going on here.  No idea how great it'll be.