Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Nym90]

Samspade, good guess.  538 did an algorithm to figure out the exact (roughly) day-to-day numbers:

Why is Obama still leading in day by day tracking polls during the GOP convention when the inverse wasn't the same for McCain during the DNC convention?

is this a serious question?  if so...probably because the race was close going into the DNC and Obama grabbed the lead within a day and received a bounce from the week's DNC convention...now McCain and the GOP are receiving their bounce from the RNC, but we won't know the full extent until next week.  If the RNC bounce > DNC bounce, McCain will probably be leading come next week, else, Obama will be leading.

Not sure if Obama has figured out what to do with Palin yet, though I did hear they were sending Hil-Lary down to FL and sending all the Dem female Governors out to run naked through the streets.  Good thing Ann Richards isn't still around.

Jennifer Granholm is pretty hot. Ruth Ann Minner, not so much.

In all seriousness though, I'm not sure why he'd have to "do" anything with the other party's VP nominees, given how little of an impact VP nominees have on the outcome of an election anyway.

[Nym90]

Saturday - September 6, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (nc, +1)
McCain: 45% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable, 43% unfavorable (-1, +1)
McCain: 58% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+1, -1)
Considering that, according to the chart above, a McCain +2 sample fell off, it's likely that today's sample was (roughly) Obama +1.  Also, depending on how big the difference between leaners and non-leaners was in the Wednesday sample, you could potentially see a weird result tomorrow (depending of course on the results) where McCain leads without leaners and Obama leads with them when the Obama +6 sample drops.

Obama +1 on the day after McCain's acceptance speech looks pretty good to me.

But let me guess Sam, be patient, right?

[Nym90]

The debates won't hardly mean jack squat, since most people will watch them with already preconceived notions.
 
Didn't Kerry "win" all the debates against Bush 4 years ago?  A lot of good that did him.

It did indeed do him quite a bit of good. He was behind be a healthy margin going into the debates, and almost managed to pull off a comeback win, largely due to his performance in them.

McCain's lead now is smaller than Bush's was at this point 4 years ago.

[Nym90]

This is bad news for Obama. 

Yes, he should be ahead. When you add in the Bradley effect, McCain actually leads.

Plus the undecideds will break 90-10 to McCain.

[Nym90]

Nice piece of news in todays Rasmussen release:

"Looking back, four years ago today, George W. Bush held a 49% to 47% lead over John Kerry."

The dynamics were different.

Very true. Conditions were fundamentally far more favorable for the incumbent party, thus there was no reason to really believe that Kerry was extremely likely to make a comeback, barring a change in those conditions.

[Nym90]

Of course some blacks are racist, just as some people of every race are. It sickens me equally no matter what the source or who it benefits.

But considering they've voted heavily Democratic for 40 years, their continuing to do so this election can't be seen as any particular racism on their part, anymore than any other group. They simply agree with and identify with the party more.

If you can show that black Republicans are voting far more for Obama than normal for a Dem, then maybe you'd have a better case for racism.

[Nym90]

How many years did white southern Democrats vote one sided? Does that mean, as well, that they weren't racist?

They agreed with the Democrats on the issues (segregation being at the time a political issue, of course).

[Nym90]

Sunday - October 5, 2008:

Obama - 51% (nc)
McCain - 44% (-1)

Forty-five percent (45%) of voters say they are certain they will vote for Obama and will not change their mind. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say the same about McCain. Thirteen percent (13%) currently have a preference for one of the candidates but might change their mind. Four percent (4%) are either undecided or plan to vote for a third-party candidate.

Favorable Ratings:

Obama: 57% favorable, 42% unfavorable (+1, nc)
McCain: 53% favorable, 45% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Low solid numbers for both candidates.  Interesting.

True, of the 17 percent who might change their minds, McCain only needs to get 76 percent of their votes to win.

[Nym90]

What about if Obama is able to change the minds of those who are just leaning to McCain?

Well, those are counted in the 17 percent figure. 45 percent of voters are solid Obama, 38 percent are solid McCain, 13 percent are leaning one way but may change their minds (7 percent of that is leaning McCain, 6 percent leaning Obama), and 4 percent are pure undecided.

[Nym90]

Much as I advised yesterday, I would not read too much into one-day sample movement in the poll.

Certainly. That's why these are 3 days tracking polls; people like us aren't supposed to obsess over figuring out what the numbers were each and every day. Way too much MOE in any one day poll.

If Obama does turn out to get a debate bounce, though, he's pretty much sealed the deal I'd say.

[Nym90]

J.J. JSojourner, and Opebo will be going nuts.

[Nym90]

That's in line with the rest of the polls.

I can very easily believe that PA is trending more Republican in this election.

If PA goes for Obama by a greater percentage than the national PV, will you still be singing the same tune??? I can't remember the last time that happened.

The last time that Pennsylvania was more Republican than the nation as a whole was 1948 (going on the basis of margin of victory in PA vs. margin of victory nationally).

Which is actually the longest streak of any state in the nation, believe it or not.

[Nym90]

That's in line with the rest of the polls.

I can very easily believe that PA is trending more Republican in this election.

If PA goes for Obama by a greater percentage than the national PV, will you still be singing the same tune??? I can't remember the last time that happened.

The last time that Pennsylvania was more Republican than the nation as a whole was 1948 (going on the basis of margin of victory in PA vs. margin of victory nationally).

Which is actually the longest streak of any state in the nation, believe it or not.

I would love to re-live a 1948. I would have been wild about Harry.

Glad to see we agree on the guy who vetoed that abomination of a bill co-sponsored by one of your state's most famous senators ever.