Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Tender Branson]

Hahaha, your candidate is pathetic.

LOL

Here were are at a time when people are talking about an incredibly weak GOP and an almost unstoppable Obama and your candidate is only up two points. Which one is pathetic again?

Probably the one who struggles to raise $15 million a month fully 3 months after he won the nomination? Or the one who can barely manage a lead when his opponent's party is divided by a long and bitter primary? The one whose recent speech was completely out-done by the loser of the Democratic primaries, not to even mention the winner? Yeah.

And...he's still only trailing by two points. Yeah. Thank you.

Hahaha, your candidate is pathetic.

LOL

Here were are at a time when people are talking about an incredibly weak GOP and an almost unstoppable Obama and your candidate is only up two points. Which one is pathetic again?

Probably the one who struggles to raise $15 million a month fully 3 months after he won the nomination? Or the one who can barely manage a lead when his opponent's party is divided by a long and bitter primary? The one whose recent speech was completely out-done by the loser of the Democratic primaries, not to even mention the winner? Yeah.

Thanks for avoiding his point.

We're not going to win this election...Bush's approval is down to 25%....we are being outraised...and yet the race is tied?

Yep, at the absolute low point in Obama's campaign, he's still leading McCain. Congratulations.

Absolute low point? The man just clinched the nomination.

I don´t see a problem here. The Rasmussen "Daily Tracking" is based on a 3-day rolling average, 2 nights were polled before Clinton was defeated. Wait a week or 2 to see if he got any bump. By the way look at the Bush-Kerry graph from June 2004:



Bush started leading by 2-3 in Mid June. So if Obama's ahead by 5 in Mid-June it would translate into a 5-8% swing compared with 2004. So what´s bad about it ? Do you expect Obama to be ahead by 10-20% right now ?

[Tender Branson]

Sunday June 8, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 48% / 50%, including leaners (+2, +2)
McCain: 40% / 43%, including leaners (-2, -2)

Obama’s bounce is the result of growing unity among the Democratic Party. Eighty-one percent (81%) of Democrats say they will vote for Obama over McCain. That’s the highest level of party support ever enjoyed by Obama. Still, three-out-of-ten voters are either uncommitted or could change their mind before Election Day. Fifty-six percent (56%) of those swayable voters are women and most earn less than $60,000 a year.

Favorability

Obama: 58% favorable; 41% unfavorable (+3, -1)
McCain: 52% favorable; 45% unfavorable (-3, +2)

Tonight (Sunday), at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data for South Carolina, and Texas. Additional state surveys will be released on Monday.

[Tender Branson]

Monday June 9, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 48% / 50%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Obama is supported by 81% of Democrats and now holds a very modest three-point edge over McCain among unaffiliated voters. Both those figures reflect a significant improvement over the past week. McCain attracts 83% of Republicans. Still, 30% of all voters either have no preference at this time or could change their vote before Election Day.

Favorability

Obama: 59% favorable; 40% unfavorable (+1, -1)
McCain: 53% favorable; 44% unfavorable (+1, -1)

At noon today, data will be released on where voters see Obama and McCain ideologically. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, state polling data will be released for Senate races in Texas, New Jersey and other states. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, state polling data on the Presidential race will be released for Wisconsin, New Jersey, and other states.

[Tender Branson]

Wednesday June 18, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 41% / 45%, including leaners (+1, +1)

With leaners, McCain is supported by 85% of Republicans while Obama gets the vote from 79% of Democrats. Among those not affiliated with either major party, it’s Obama 46% McCain 41%.

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (+1, +1)
McCain: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (+2, -1)

At noon Eastern today, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data on the Presidential race in Alaska and Maine. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, data on the Maine Senate race will be released. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, data will be released from an Ohio poll conducted last night.

[Tender Branson]

Alaska is going to be within a few points (3 at most, 1 at least, if what I'm hearing is correct - probably McCain +2)

4 to be correct.

[Tender Branson]

Sunday June 22, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 49%, including leaners (+1, +1)
McCain: 40% / 42%, including leaners (nc, -1)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; 41% unfavorable (+1, -1)
McCain: 54% favorable; 43% unfavorable (-1, nc)

[Tender Branson]

Sunday June 22, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 49%, including leaners (+1, +1)
McCain: 40% / 42%, including leaners (nc, -1)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; 41% unfavorable (+1, -1)
McCain: 54% favorable; 43% unfavorable (-1, nc)

The question now is: Will John McCain ever take the lead again in the RCP-average ? When will that be the case ? Obama has been ahead or tied since Mid-April now and I don´t think the convention bounce will be bigger than Obama's. Nor do I think that picking a vice-president earlier than Obama will lead to a bounce. I think it would really take a major scandal or gaffe and then a poor debate performance or (god forbid!) terror attack to see McCain overtaking Obama once again ...

[Tender Branson]

Sunday June 29, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 43%, including leaners (nc, -1)

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable; 42% unfavorable (nc, -1)
McCain: 54% favorable; 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

[Tender Branson]

07/07/2008:

Obama - 49%
McCain - 44%

Obama leads by twelve percentage points among women, but trails by three among men. Among White Women, McCain leads by just four percentage points. That’s a much smaller advantage among White Women than George W. Bush enjoyed four years ago.

Overall, McCain leads by nine among White Voters. Obama leads 94% to 3% among African-American voters and 61% to 30% among Hispanic voters.

Obama - 56% favorable, 42% unfavorable
McCain - 54% favorable, 43% unfavorable

[Tender Branson]

July 8, 2008:

Obama - 49% (nc)
McCain - 43% (-1)

Obama - 57% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+1, -1)
McCain - 53% favorable, 44% unfavorable (-1, +1)

In other news:

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has done a far more effective job than Republican John McCain in recent weeks moving himself to the middle in the minds of voters, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone surveys.

During the Primary campaign season, Obama was viewed as politically liberal by an ever-increasing number of voters that grew to 67% by early June. However, since clinching the nomination, he has reversed that trend and is now seen as liberal by only 56%.

Twenty-two percent (22%) characterize the Democrat as Very Liberal, down from 36% early last month.

McCain similarly has been seen as politically conservative by more and more voters, also hitting 67% a month ago, but he is still viewed that way by 66%. While19% saw him as Very Conservative in early June, that figure now has risen to 28%.

The Democratic candidate is viewed as a political moderate by 27%, up from 22% three weeks earlier, while McCain is seen as a moderate by 23%, down from 26% in the survey at the beginning of June.

[Tender Branson]

July 9, 2008:

Obama - 48% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+1)

Obama - 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (-2, +2)
McCain - 54% favorable, 44% unfavorable (+1, nc)

Today, at noon Eastern, Rasmussen Reports will release new data on the Presidential Race in Missouri. At 3:00 Eastern, data will be released for the Missouri Governor’s race and the New Jersey Senate race. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, data will be released for the Presidential race in New Jersey.

[Tender Branson]

July 11, 2008:

Obama - 47% (-1)
McCain - 45% (nc)

McCain - 54% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, -1)
Obama - 54% favorable, 44% unfavorable (nc, -1)

Rasmussen Reports will release new Presidential polling data today from Washington at noon Eastern today. At 3:00 p.m., we’ll provide our latest update on the Washington Governor’s race.

[Tender Branson]

McCain might be doing better midweek and Obama on the weekends.  We shouldn't be getting too exicted yet.

What I find more disturbing is the fact that they polled Washington once again, instead of - let's say - Indiana ...

[Tender Branson]

Saturday - July 12, 2008:

Obama - 47% (nc)
McCain - 46% (+1)

McCain - 56% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+2, -2)
Obama - 54% favorable, 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

[Tender Branson]

Saturday - July 12, 2008:

Obama - 47% (nc)
McCain - 46% (+1)

McCain - 56% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+2, -2)
Obama - 54% favorable, 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Too bad, Gallup will show him ahead by 9 today ...

[Tender Branson]

Monday - July 14, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 46% (nc)

McCain - 56% favorable, 41% unfavorable (-1, +1)
Obama - 54% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, -1)

New state polling data will be released each afternoon this week.

[Tender Branson]

Tuesday - July 15, 2008:

Obama - 47% (nc)
McCain - 45% (-1)

Obama - 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (+1, nc)
McCain - 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (-1, +2)

Later today, Rasmussen Reports will release additional Senate polls, issues polls, and some hypothetical Presidential match-ups including how Hillary Clinton might do against John McCain and how George W. Bush would fare against Barack Obama.

[Tender Branson]

Later today, Rasmussen Reports will release additional Senate polls, issues polls, and some hypothetical Presidential match-ups including how Hillary Clinton might do against John McCain and how George W. Bush would fare against Barack Obama.

Is there any need? Issues polls. ANWR perhaps? Cue McCain, 1, 2, 3, flip

Dave

Of course Rasmussen will show Hillary Clinton beating MCcain by 20 in Pennsylvania, 15 in Ohio and 10 in Florida ...

I´m really looking forward to these Bush vs. Obama polls. Did they poll Utah ? Or one of the states released yesterday ... ?

[Tender Branson]

Wednesday - July 16, 2008:

Obama - 48% (+1)
McCain - 45% (nc)

Later today, Rasmussen Reports will release statewide polling data for the Presidential and Senate races in Oregon and Kansas.

Currently, McCain leads by a 60% to 26% margin among Evangelical Christians and holds a very slight edge over Obama among other Protestant voters and Catholic voters.

Obama holds a thirty-five point advantage among all other voters. Most voters who attend Church at least weekly support McCain and most who rarely or never attend services prefer Obama.

Both candidates are viewed favorably by 55% of voters nationwide. McCain is viewed favorably by 71% of Evangelical Christians, 59% of other Protestant voters, and 64% of Catholic voters. Obama earns favorable reviews from 39% of Evangelical Christians, 53% of other Protestant voters, and 51% of Catholic voters. Among all other voters, Obama is viewed favorably by 67%, McCain by 38%.

[Tender Branson]

Thursday - July 17, 2008:

Obama - 46% (-2)
McCain - 46% (+1)

Favorable Ratings:

McCain - 56% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+1, -1)
Obama - 54% favorable, 44% unfavorable (-1, +1)

At noon Eastern today, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data on the Presidential race in North Carolina. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released on the race in Nevada and Arkansas. A North Carolina Senate update will be released at 3:00 p.m. Eastern.

[Tender Branson]

Friday - July 18, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 46% (nc)

[Tender Branson]

Saturday - July 19, 2008:

McCain - 46% (nc)
Obama - 46% (-1)

Favorable Ratings:

McCain - 56% favorable, 41% unfavorable (nc, nc)
Obama - 55% favorable, 42% unfavorable (nc, -1)

[Tender Branson]

Sunday - July 20, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 45% (-1)

[Tender Branson]

Wednesday - July 23, 2008

Obama: 47% (+1)
McCain: 45% (-1)

Favorable Ratings

McCain: 56% favorable - 42% unfavorable (-1, +2)
Obama: 54% favorable - 43% unfavorable (-1, -1)

Today, at noon Eastern, data will be released on the Presidential race in Florida.

New data will be released from polling in Minnesota as well, an update on the Senate race at 3:00 p.m. Eastern and the Presidential numbers at 5:00 p.m. Eastern.

[Tender Branson]

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (-1, -1)
McCain: 42% / 46%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Obama earns the vote from 78% of Democrats, McCain is supported by 86% of Republicans, and unaffiliated voters are evenly divided. McCain leads 50% to 44% among White voters and 51% to 43% among men. Obama leads 51% to 42% among women and 92% to 5% among African-Americans

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; - 44% unfavorable (nc, +1)
McCain: 54% favorable; - 44% unfavorable (-2, +2)

Interesting.

The last time McCain was making it this close in the Rasmussen tracking poll (pre-Obama world tour), his favorability ratings were really high (like 58, 59% IIRC).  Now, they're lower than Obama, but he's still making it close, meaning that people who don't necessarily like him could start to gravitate towards him because of a dislike for Obama.  Of course, it probably means nothing.

What´s even more interesting: I don´t get how Obama is ahead by only 1% overall, if he´s getting 44% of the white vote, to McCain's 50%. Kerry got 41%, Bush 59%. Obama's getting higher shares among African-Americans and Hispanics. Is Rasmussen's sample 90% White ? Because on Election Day it will be 73-75% ...