Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

07/07/2008:

Obama - 49%
McCain - 44%

Obama leads by twelve percentage points among women, but trails by three among men. Among White Women, McCain leads by just four percentage points. That’s a much smaller advantage among White Women than George W. Bush enjoyed four years ago.

Overall, McCain leads by nine among White Voters. Obama leads 94% to 3% among African-American voters and 61% to 30% among Hispanic voters.

Obama - 56% favorable, 42% unfavorable
McCain - 54% favorable, 43% unfavorable

The key numbers
Women +12%
Men only -3%
AA +89%
Hispanics +31%

- if this holds out Obama will do well. These are the groups Obama needs to outperform Kerry in markedly to win.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

For God's sake....

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think the 2 Clinton speeches will be the test - in spite of the bitching and whining from some Obama-ites - their blessing mattered a lot.

As has been said before - Obama reached his best peak vs McCain when Hillary left the race.

Over the past two months a lot of those have either gone to McCain or into the undecided.

He needs those people badly and he NEEDS the Clintons to win them over.

I think there is a slight movement away from McCain in the aftermath of Hillary's speech - and hopefully Bill's (much more effusive praise) will draw more people over to Obama. The strategy initially looks stupid.  But actually looks masterful - give Bill and Hillary prime-time speaking slots - soften up those voters and try to cast Obama and NOT Hillary as the heir to Clinton's legacy (in the eyes of Clintonistas) - then lay in Biden and hopefully let Obama be the suckerpunch tomorrow.

I think the bounce will be relatively small - max 5% - since I think there are very few without quite firm views of Obama and McCain. 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

lol... well congrats on fabulous media spin.

Take and old saying and somehow turn it into a sexist comment. It's remarkable - the Reps are the ones playing the politics of political correctness.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Sunday - October 12, 2008:

Obama 51% (-1)
McCain 45% (nc)

Obama leads by fourteen percentage points among women while McCain leads by two among men. Both men lead by an 86% to 12% margin among members of their own party while Obama holds an eight point advantage among unaffiliated voters.

If the gender make-up of the electorate is the same as 2004 (women 54% men 46%) if McCain needs to get Obama below 10% and get his own number with men well-above 10%... if those numbers play out... he's screwed hard, unless men increase their numbers... assuming they aren't new Obama-voters, lol.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

You cryptically mentioned 'Obama being corrupt' in the last two threads I read (this and the non-gallup one). So I'm taking it as your new talking point.

Anyway, thats semantics - what do you mean?

Have you been paying attention?

BTW, how many voter registrations have you filled out? I'm up to number 186!

You do realise how many steps are required for a fraudulent registration to actually be granted the right to vote?

This WHOLE Acorn mess has been MISreported and blown out of all proportion.

A bunch of people realised it was easier earning $8 an hour troling through the phone book than to actually go door to door. They get paid for the registration forms - but in order to be able to vote you would need that to be 100% checked and for someone with fake ID by that name to actually be able to cast a fraudulent vote.

Since you're happy to sprout propoganda, I'll add a statistic for you - out of the 270m votes cast in the last few elections, there has only been 32 confirmed cases of actual voter-fraud.

Am I the only one who finds it hillarious that people who found nothing wrong the purging of the Florida voter rolls by a company linked to the Republican party and supported for the Sec of State (and also co-chair of the Florida Bush election campaign) - are screeching about the danger to the system of democracy by a bunch of people, who, granted, did not do their job properly, but are no real threat to democracy in America.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Wednesday - October 22

Obama: 51 (+1)
McCain: 45 (-1)

Okay, now there is the trend.  Not the one I wanted, but it's there.

Its not a trend.  McCain has been 44-46 and Obama 50-52 for Ras for what, 28 straight days? Thats called stability.

no, I think over the weekend the undecideds started breaking heavily towards Obama and will continue to do so until election day, giving him a 54.5-44.5-1.0 win and 400+ EV.

I still find that kind of blow-out hard to fathom.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Actually it's not really an issue of a few polls.

Of course a few intensely competed for states will be closer than the national numbers because Obama is blowing McCain away in other areas - West Coast, NE, Mid Atlanic -Upper-midwest,

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This is when the nerves really start to set in.

I do think this was a weird sample....

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Tuesday - October 28:

Obama - 51 (nc)
McCain - 46 (nc)

Later today, new polling data will be released for Arkansas, Mississippi, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

There must have been a SHOCKING sample for Obama before - but it *looks* like a blip.

I'm interested in all the polls out of these states, haven't heard much out of AR for a while.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Hmmm yes....

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Saturday November 1, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (-1)

Thanks be... lol

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Sunday November 2, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

Thank God.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Very very very nice to see.