Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Brittain33]

I just read in USA Today this morning that Obama expects to have a shot in South Carolina and Georgia - "and that they are looking at Tennessee and Alabama".

Obama's blowing smoke.  No way he actually offers serious competition in Tennessee and Alabama.

"It doesn't cost anything to look."

[Brittain33]

At 3:00 p.m. Eastern today, the latest data from Kansas will be released and, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, the latest numbers will be released on the Presidential race in Virginia and Nevada.

Ok, I'm sure there are good reasons for releasing information at those times and in that order, but the effect is just cruel.

[Brittain33]

Biden was wrong choice, nationally.  That is obvious.  Obama should be at least holding at this point; he's not.

I think Biden as a name didn't get Obama anything off the starting blocks, and may have hurt him by virtue of not being a woman. However, Biden in action has yet to make a mark. Whether he will or not, we'll see, but he was chosen for both his credentials and his fight.

[Brittain33]

Biden was not that unknown. 

I didn't say he was unknown. He has some low name recognition as a long-running Democratic senator who is well known in media circles but doesn't register with ordinary people. My point was, the VP has value for both the initial statement (think a hypothetical Colin Powell, John Edwards, Jack Kemp) and how they perform down the road (Al Gore, Dick Cheney in the debates, Lyndon Johnson).

Biden is potentially much stronger than pretty much any other possibility in the debates, in his convention speech, and out on the stump. Is it necessarily the case? No. However, while you're welcome to start celebrating now, it's not "obvious" that Biden was a dud pick based on his failure to move tracking polls right away. He was chosen for his abilities, not his name wow-factor. When people say that Biden will help the ticket connect with working-class voters (a dubious claim, but let's go with it) it wasn't because working-class people have posters of Biden on their walls and were thrilled when he was picked. He needs to be introduced to them, and then we'll see if he resonates or makes a difference.

Of course McCain taking the lead in tracking polls is bad news for Obama. You and I disagree about what that means, and how permanent that is.

[Brittain33]

The only conventions I recall with no bounce after the convention were McGovern 1972 and Bush 1992, though I may be forgetting something.  Whatever. 

I think Kerry failed to get a bounce.

[Brittain33]

You're technically right, though in reality that bounce appeared *after* the Gallup poll was done (which is the historical measure).  And then it got killed completely by Swift Boats.

After re-reading Gallup, I see the Bush 41 in 1992 got 5%.  So count me wrong there too.

Clealy you're going off of the numbers while I'm going off of memories of freak-outs on Daily Kos.

[Brittain33]

While there isn't a weekend Obama bounce in Rasmussen, there might have been something related to Gustav.  You had 4 Republican states (probably close to 10% of the US population) where there was a lot evacuations due to to Gustav; that alone could account for it.

I doubt more than 1% of the country's population (3 million) evacuated their homes, and certainly no more than 2%.

[Brittain33]

Did their site crash from traffic or is it normal to get error messages this time of day?

[Brittain33]

the DNC is conducting a DOS attack on Rasmussen so that they can continue to pretend Sarah Palin is just a very bad dream.

Have you considered the possibility that the sample for today is so strongly McCain that they want some extra time to process it before releasing it?

[Brittain33]

Friday - September 5, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 47%, including leaners (-2, -2)
McCain: 45% / 46%, including leaners (+2, +1)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable, 41% unfavorable (-1, unc)
McCain: 58% favorable, 40% unfavorable (+2, -3)

[Brittain33]

That's a bigger change than I had expected.

Just my guess. I'm eager to see if that's what the real Rasmussen numbers turn out to be.

[Brittain33]

McCain: 45% / 46%, including leaners (+2, +1)

Hey, I called it!

[Brittain33]

People do not want a good speaker. They want actual content in the speeches.

That is rather the opposite of the Palin experience; she got points for delivering a strong attack speech.

[Brittain33]

People do not want a good speaker. They want actual content in the speeches.

That is rather the opposite of the Palin experience; she got points for delivering a strong attack speech.

One man's "content" is another man's pablum.

You and Zarn misunderstand or draw the wrong conclusion from my post. Zarn described a speech people wanted, I responded that many were quite pleased with Palin's speech and she didn't deliver what he said they wanted. Obama's not in the picture.

[Brittain33]

What does that make Sunday's sample?

[Brittain33]

If this Republican gain in enthusiasm continues to the election in some form or another, there will be a tightening in party ID.  I can't say how much it would be, and it won't probably be as extreme as it looks post-convention, but it would be there and it would likely be somewhat significant.

Agreed. If Rasmussen's sample has locked in pre-Palin shifts of Republicans to the Independent category, it's going to be slow to reflect any flow back, should it have happened. I wonder if he's scheduled to realign his partisan breakdowns before the election should this hold for more than the immediate post-convention bounce.

[Brittain33]

Seems a little weird that it's all tied up with the favorables being so different. Interesting.

It's a Chafee effect, I think. Some Democrats approve of McCain but will not vote Republican this year.

[Brittain33]

Obama has in the high single digits of campaign offices in N.D., while McCain has none.

I make no pretense that that will swing enough voters to overcome a 14-point gap in a state that always votes Republican, but it's interesting nonetheless. We're going to see what happens when a campaign works a state it should have close to no hope to winning.

[Brittain33]

Obama has in the high single digits of campaign offices in N.D., while McCain has none.

I make no pretense that that will swing enough voters to overcome a 14-point gap in a state that always votes Republican, but it's interesting nonetheless. We're going to see what happens when a campaign works a state it should have close to no hope to winning.

Ok so the only argument there is that Obama is being foolish and McCain is being smart? Ok.

I'm not making any argument at all. I have no idea what the opportunity cost of what he's invested in N.D. is, and to what extent it was committed before the race evened up. It's not as if office space in Jamestown, N.D. is going to eat up a significant chunk of change, and he must have an organization left over from the caucuses.

[Brittain33]

McCain 49% (-1)
Obama 47% (nc)

Rasmussen agrees with Gallup again, and all is right with the world. (Except for the McCain lead.)

[Brittain33]

Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters say they trust McCain more than Obama on the economy while 45% trust Obama. These figures are updated weekly and have generally found voters evenly divided.
[/i]

Convention bounce half-way gone, but if this figure is true we should see a swing back towards McCain this week.

We'll have to see if Obama makes any headway against McCain on this through his latest ads and the "fundamentals are strong" issue. Right now I suppose this reflects a mix of "he'll raise my taxes" and leftover pro-drilling sentiment thoroughly leavened with basic partisanship.

[Brittain33]

What makes this night different from all other nights?

Tuesday- September 23, 2008
Obama 48% (nc)
McCain 48% (+1)

[Brittain33]

By the way, McCain now leads in New Hampshire 49-47

That's one poll by UNH only.

[Brittain33]

Marist now has Obama over McCain in NH, 51-45.

[Brittain33]

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Obama: 51% (nc)
McCain: 45% (nc)