Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Franzl]

TN really hates Obama, don't they?

not according to Dick Morris.

[Franzl]

I think tomorrow the good McCain sample will fall off, right ?

What good McCain sample?

I think there are two Obama +3 samples....and this last one would probably be about Obama +5, to push the average up to O+4 over three days.

The reason it still went down today wasn't the last sample...but the fact that O+7.5 fell off, I believe.

[Franzl]

+3, +3, +5 is what made it a +4 average yesterday, I think. (maybe Sam can comfirm whether that's true or not?)

if it is, then one +3 fell off....leaving the +3, +5...and by my calculation, at least +6 today...which would be an excellent result only a couple of days before the election.

[Franzl]

I believe it's +6, +6, +3 or there abouts.

Which makes the PA poll today even more confusing. PA 2% more Republican than the national average? Really?
Even if McCain somehow miraculously pulls in PA, he still needs to hold all of FL, NC, MO, IN and NV. Somehow I don't see that happening.

CO and VA are gone for him.

I wouldn't try to find a connection between his national and state polls...It's been terrible the last couple of days and weeks.

[Franzl]

Sunday November 2, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

Good enough...

McCain has to make up 2.5 points per day in the next two days. Good luck with that one.

if you just look at today's sample...it's more like 1.5 per day....

still tough...but I don't really like it.