Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday June 4, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 43% / 47%, including leaners
McCain: 41% / 45%, including leaders

Leaners are survey respondents who initially do not favor either candidate but indicate their support on a follow-up question.

Both candidates have a lot of work to do if they are to win a majority of the popular vote. Just 32% of voters say they are “certain” to vote for Obama and an identical number are “certain” to vote for McCain. That means 36% of the nation’s voters are open to possibly changing their vote.

As the General Election season begins, Obama attracts 96% of the African-American vote while McCain holds a thirteen-point lead among White voters. Obama leads by nine among voters of other racial and ethnic backgrounds, primarily Latino voters (these figures are based upon the results including leaners).

Obama leads by a two-to-one margin among voters under 30 and holds a significant lead among 30-somethings. McCain has the edge among those 40 and older, attracting the votes from 50% of these voters.

McCain leads by ten percentage points among White Women. However, Obama has the edge among White Women Under 40 while McCain enjoys a substantial advantage among older White Women.

Government employees are essentially evenly divided between the two candidates. McCain has a 53% to 39% advantage among Entrepreneurs while Obama leads 50% to 41% among those who work for someone else in the Private Sector.

From a partisan perspective, McCain attracts 83% of Republicans while Obama is supported by 76% of Democrats. McCain has an eight-point advantage over Obama among unaffiliated voters. Keep in mind that many of this year’s unaffiliated voters were Republicans four-years ago. The number identifying with the GOP has declined from just under 37% in 2004 to 31% today. At the same time, many unaffiliated voters from four years ago, now consider themselves to be Democrats.

Favorability

Obama: 55% favourable; 43% unfavorable
McCain: 53% favorable; 44% unfavorable

Issues

Forty-three percent (43%) of voters say McCain is a better leader than Obama while 38% hold the opposite view.

When asked which candidate has personal values closer to their won, 43% name McCain and 42% say Obama (crosstabs available for Premium Members).

Forty-four percent (44%) trust McCain most when it comes to economic issues and managing the economy while 40% prefer Obama.

On national security issues such as the War in Iraq and the War on Terrorism, 51% have more trust in McCain while 37% prefer Obama

Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern. Rasmussen Reports has made a number of changes in our tracking poll as we shift to fully focus on the fall campaign. Starting on Monday, we increased our tracking poll calls to interview 1,000 Likely Voters per night. We will now be reporting results on a three-day rolling average basis. Previously, we had reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The increased number of calls will enable us to provide even more detailed and timely coverage of Election 2008. Over the coming two weeks, many new features will be rolled out, some for the public site and some for Premium Members.

[Democratic Hawk]

An african american vs. hispanic riff has been long-founded, just as you see the racism riff in areas of Alabama, Kentucky, ect. Obama is not as good a candidate for Hispanics as McCain is.

Mike,

From Gallup (May 1-31), among Hispanics, Obama leads McCain by 62 to 29

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107689/Early-Gallup-Road-Map-McCainObama-Matchup.aspx

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday June 5, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 43% / 47%, including leaners (-, -)
McCain: 41% / 45%, including leaders (-, -)

Favorability

McCain: 55% favorable; 42% unfavorable (+2, -2)
Obama: 54% favourable; 43% unfavorable (-1, -)

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday June 7, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 48%, including leaners (+1, -)
McCain: 42% / 45%, including leaners (+2, +2)

Obama’s bounce is primarily the result of Democrats beginning to unify behind his candidacy. For the first time all year, Obama is supported by 80% of Democrats over McCain. In recent months, his support from Democrats has typically been in the high-60’s or low-70’s range.

McCain is supported by 84% of Republicans and holds an eight-point lead among unaffiliated voters. The bad news for McCain is that there are a lot more Democrats than Republicans.

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable; 42% unfavorable (-, -)
McCain: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (-, -)

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday June 10, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 48% / 50%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 43%, including leaners (nc, -1)

Favorability

Obama: 59% favorable; 40% unfavorable (nc, nc)
McCain: 54% favorable; 43% unfavorable (+1, -1)

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday June 11, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (-2, -1)
McCain: 41% / 44%, including leaners (+1, +1)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; 42% unfavorable (-3, +2)
McCain: 55% favorable; 42% unfavorable (+1, -1)

Issues

45% (+1) trust McCain most when it comes to economic issues and managing the economy while 42% (+2) prefer Obama.

On national security issues such as the War in Iraq and the War on Terrorism, 49% (-2) have more trust in McCain while 41% (+4) prefer Obama.

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday June 12, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 50%, including leaners (+1, +1)
McCain: 41% / 44%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Obama currently leads by eleven points among women but trails by a single point among men (including leaners). Thirty-nine percent (39%) of women say they are certain they will vote for Obama in November. Another 10% say they would vote for him today but could change their mind, and 3% are leaning towards voting for Obama. For McCain those numbers are 30% certain, 8% who could change their mind, and 3% leaning towards voting for him.

Thirty-six percent (36%) of men are certain they will vote for McCain while 34% say the same about Obama.

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; 42% unfavorable (nc, nc)
McCain: 54% favorable; 44% unfavorable (-1, +2)

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday June 13, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 49%, including leaners (nc, -1)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (-1, nc)

Obama attracts 84% of political liberals while McCain is supported by 76% of conservatives. While there are more conservatives than liberals in the nation today, Obama also enjoys a twenty-eight point advantage over McCain among moderates.

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable; 42% unfavorable (-1, nc)
McCain: 52% favorable; 45% unfavorable (-2, +1)

[Democratic Hawk]

If you agree, then what are you complaining about?

No-one's advocating meeting Bin Laden, the argument is over to meet with people like Adjeminihad etc.

See, but I put Adjeminihad in the same category as Osama.

Which is particularly amusing given that Ahmadinejad doesn't really even have any power within Iran.

Exactly. In Iran, the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has control over foreign policy, the armed forces, nuclear policy, and the main economic policies of the Iranian state; indeed, he has the final say on all matters of policy whether domestic or foreign

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday June 14, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 43%, including leaners (nc, -1)

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable; 44% unfavorable (nc, +2)
McCain: 52% favorable; 45% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Obama is viewed favorably by 58% of women and 52% of men. McCain earns favorable reviews from 54% of men and 51% of women.

Among voters under 30, 62% have a favorable opinion of Obama. Those ratings decline steadily by age—just 49% of seniors (65+) have a favorable opinion of the Democratic candidate. McCain is viewed favorably by 59% of seniors, his highest rating from any age group. His weakest reviews come from 30-somethings. Among these young adults, 49% have a favorable opinion of the Republican standard bearer.

Few surprises are seen on a partisan basis. Obama is viewed favorably by 82% of Democrats and 25% of Republicans. McCain is viewed favorably by 81% of Republicans and 29% of Democrats. For all the talk of post-partisanship, the campaign is shaping up so far along fiercely partisan lines. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, McCain is viewed favorably by 55%, Obama by 51%.

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday June 16, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (-1, -1)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (+1, +1)

Favorability

McCain: 55% favorable; 44% unfavorable (+3, -1)
Obama: 54% favorable; 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday June 17, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 54% favorable; 42% unfavorable (nc, -1)
McCain: 53% favorable; 44% unfavorable (-2, nc)

[Democratic Hawk]

At noon Eastern today, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data on the Presidential race in Alaska and Maine. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, data on the Maine Senate race will be released. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, data will be released from an Ohio poll conducted last night.

Perhaps Rasmussen will confirm recent trends from other pollsters (SUSA, Obama +9; PPP, Obama +11; and Qunnipiac, Obama +6) in OH. In May, he had McCain on 45%; Obama 44%

It will be interesting to see whether AK has tightened and Obama continues to hold big lead in ME

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Alaska is going to be within a few points (3 at most, 1 at least, if what I'm hearing is correct - probably McCain +2)

In April, McCain had a 5-point lead (48-43); but in May, AK shifted his way giving him a 9-point lead (50-41), so any moving towards Obama will raise a from me

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday June 19, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 42% / 45%, including leaners (+1, nc)

Voters are evenly divided as to which candidate they trust most on economic issues but favor McCain by a wide margin on national security topics.

Obama’s modest bounce since capturing the Democratic Presidential Nomination is now being reflected in a number of state polls. As a result, the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows five states shifting in the Democrat’s direction today. Most notable are Colorado and New Hampshire which move from Toss-Up to Leans Democratic. New Jersey moves from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic, Maine from Likely Democratic to Safely Democratic, and Tennessee from Safely Republican to Likely Republican. Polling released late yesterday shows that Ohio is still too close to call.

When all the changes are made, Obama now leads in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 174 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 240. New polling data on the Obama-McCain match-up in Colorado will be released at 5:00 p.m. Eastern today. Data on the state’s Senate race will be released at 3:00 p.m. Eastern.

While McCain is struggling with Obama’s bounce, his call for offshore oil drilling may be helping. A new poll shows that Florida voters agree with the GOP candidate that offshore drilling will bring down gas prices. When survey respondents are told that McCain favors offshore drilling and Obama opposes, support for McCain increases a bit. Data released earlier this week showed that 67% of voters believe drilling should be allowed off the coasts of California, Florida and other states. New national survey data on the topic of energy will be released at noon Eastern today including questions about offshore oil drilling, nuclear power plants, and research for alternative energy sources.

Other recent survey data shows that 56% say that the North American Free Trade Agreement needs to be renegotiated and that Congressional ratings have fallen to an all-time low. Thirty percent (30%) believe that most members of Congress are corrupt. Most voters believe that Supreme Court Justices have their own political agendas to advance and just 53% are opposed to bans on “hate speech.”

McCain leads among voters who earn $40,000 to $75,000 a year. Obama leads among those who earn less than $40,000 annually and those whose income tops $75,000.

Favorability

McCain: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)
Obama: 54% favorable; 42% unfavorable (-1, -1)

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday June 20, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 41% / 44%, including leaners (-1, -1)

Obama’s decision to opt out of public funding is likely to have little impact on his standing with voters. Only 30% support public financing of the campaigns and just 16% say the issue is Very Important to their vote.

Polling released yesterday shows Colorado is once again too close to call in the Presidential race although the prospects for a Democratic Senate pick-up in the state are improving.

With this new data, Colorado is moving from “Leans Democratic” to “Toss-Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. At the same time, however, Ohio is moving from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democratic.” The latest Rasmussen Reports polling shows Ohio remains close but Rasmussen Markets data and an average of all recent polls have created a shift. With these changes, Obama now leads in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 174 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 284, McCain 240.

New polling data on the Obama-McCain match-up in Nevada and New Hampshire will be released at Noon Eastern today.

Favorability

McCain: 54% favorable; 43% unfavorable (-1, nc)
Obama: 53% favorable; 44% unfavorable (-1, +2)

[Democratic Hawk]

Favorability

McCain: 54% favorable; 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)
Obama: 55% favorable; 42% unfavorable (+2, -2)
McCain: 54% favorable; 42% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Correction

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday June 23, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 43%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Currently, Obama and McCain are essentially even among men while the Democrat leads by twelve among women. McCain leads 49% to 42% among White Voters but trails 93% to 3% among African-American voters. Among voters who see economic issues as most important this year, Obama leads 59% to 32%. As for those who view national security issues as most important, McCain leads 59% to 37%.

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; 42% unfavorable (nc, +1)
McCain: 54% favorable; 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)

[Democratic Hawk]

Hawk - it's 49-43, not 49-42.

Corrected

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday June 24, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (-1, nc)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Currently, Obama wins the vote from 80% of Democrats while McCain is supported by 82% of Republicans. The two contenders are essentially even among unaffiliated voters. However, one of the key stats in the race remains the potential for volatility in a race with two little known candidates—32% of voters are either uncommitted at this time or could change their mind before Election Day. Thirty-six percent (36%) say they are certain to vote for Obama while 32% are that certain of their support for McCain.

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; 42% unfavorable (nc, nc)
McCain: 54% favorable; 44% unfavorable (nc, +1)

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 45%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (-1, +1)
McCain: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (+1, -1)

Just 22% now say the McCain is too old to be President, down from 30% who held that view earlier. Forty-one percent (41%) continue to believe that Obama is too inexperienced.

Currently, Obama wins the vote from 81% of Democrats while McCain is supported by 84% of Republicans and holds a three-point edge among unaffiliated voters. The two contenders are essentially even among unaffiliated voters. However, one of the key stats in the race remains the potential for volatility in a race with two little known candidates—30% of voters are either uncommitted at this time or could change their mind before Election Day. Thirty-seven percent (37%) say they are certain to vote for Obama while 33% are that certain of their support for McCain.

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday, June 26, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 41% / 45%, including leaners (+1, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)
McCain: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday, June 27, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 49%, including leaners (+1, nc)
McCain: 40% / 45%, including leaners (-1, nc)

Thirty-seven percent (37%) of voters are certain they will vote for Obama and not change their mind. Thirty-three percent (33%) are just as certain they will vote for McCain. Seventy percent (70%) of Republicans are certain they will vote for McCain and 68% of Democrats say they same about Obama. Among those not affiliated with either major party, 30% are certain to vote for McCain, 25% for Obama and 45% say they could change their mind before Election Day. Part of the reason for this extraordinary fluidity is that the candidates are relatively unknown. Another factor is that the issue array is not as settled as in recent elections.

Favorability

Obama: 54% favorable; 43% unfavorable (-1, nc)
McCain: 54% favorable; 44% unfavorable (-1, +1)

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday, June 28, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (nc, -1)

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (+1, nc)
McCain: 54% favorable; 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday, June 30, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (-1, nc)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable; 42% unfavorable (nc, nc)
McCain: 54% favorable; 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)