A) A black VP nominee wont help Bush crack into the black vote. A Hispanic VP might vastly increase the GOP showing in the Hispanic community. I would say that a BLACK GOP PRESIDENTIAL nominee wouldn't take more than 20-30% of the black vote and again the reverse applies to a Hispanic nominee
B) Bush would never drop Cheney unless Cheney himself elects to drop out!!!!
If there is one thing that endears Bush to ordinary people its his standards of integrity and loyalty. He would NEVER dump Cheney for electoral gain.
I just wish Cheney who is also a reasonable man and a party loyalist would see that the GOP would gain much more from SEVERAL other VP possibilities.
So let's go one step further in speculation, if a Dean/Clark ticket was looking strong in the polls by the Republican convention, would Bush replace Cheney?
I think he could.
1) His policies have strong support in the conservative base, so he no longer needs Cheney to prove his conservatism.
2) Bush, is pretty practical and if a better VP were availble, he might go for him/her.
Best choice to strengthen Bush in the Mid-Atlantic would be Guliani, putting NY, NJ, and CT in play, solidify suburban support in OH, PA and MI.
The choice of Powell or Rice, might also add votes from the suburbs in PA, OH, MI, IA, WI, MN, FL. I think it would also tend to increase the Hispanic vote for Bush, helping with CO, AZ, NM, NV. Of course a minority VP would cut white support in the South, but it might be balanced by some gain in African-American support. But I'm skeptical if any minority Republican would increase Bush's dismal proportion of the African-American vote.
