2004 VP candidates

[zorkpolitics]

Although the normal role of a VP candidate is, Do No Harm, perhaps this election will be different.
I assume Dean wins the nomination, since he is the candidate with the most money, the only candidate with active campaigns in most of early primaries states, and he leads in NH.
So who would be his best and/or most likely VP running mate?
Compared to Gore, Dean probably would win NH, but that's all.  On the other hand he is unlikely to win anything in the South, (including FL).
With Dean at the top the Democrats have two valid electoral strategies to build on Gore's states.

1) Put on a Southern who can peel off several Southern states (such has FL, AK, LA, TN, WV).  
2) Abandon the South and go for an upper Midwest/Southwest strategy (OH, MO; CO, NV, AZ).

Neither Kerry nor Lieberman helps with either strategy.

For #1 the obvious candidates are Edwards, Graham and Clark.  I think Clark is actually the stronger candidate, bringing national security strength to balance Dean's total lack of experience.  Graham offers the promise of FL 27 EV, and Edwards NC, but I don’t think either could deliver.

For #2, NM Governor Richardson might energize enough Hispanics to win NM, AZ, NV, and CO.  I don't think Gerhardt offers much beyond a shot at MO and maybe help in WV.

Ay other thoughts?

[zorkpolitics]

So let's go one step further in speculation, if a Dean/Clark ticket was looking strong in the polls by the Republican convention, would Bush replace Cheney?

I think he could.
1) His policies have strong support in the conservative base, so he no longer needs Cheney to prove his conservatism.
2) Bush, is pretty practical and if a better VP were availble, he might go for him/her.

Best choice to strengthen Bush in the Mid-Atlantic would be Guliani, putting NY, NJ, and CT in play, solidify suburban support in OH, PA and MI.

The choice of Powell or Rice, might also add votes from the suburbs in PA, OH, MI, IA, WI, MN, FL.  I think it would also tend to increase the Hispanic vote for Bush, helping with CO, AZ, NM, NV.   Of course a minority VP would cut white support in the South, but it might be balanced by some gain in African-American support.  But I'm skeptical if any minority Republican would increase Bush's dismal proportion of the African-American vote.