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  Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
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Author Topic: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?  (Read 25665 times)
cp
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« Reply #25 on: June 06, 2008, 12:21:12 pm »

What a ridiculous thread.

I assume what you meant to ask is, 'Of which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs?"

Wink
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nclib
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« Reply #26 on: June 07, 2008, 07:43:02 pm »

I looked up the Detroit metro area and Kerry did win the metro vote outside of Detroit. This somewhat surprised me since I didn't think it had a sizable minority population or was socially liberal, especially given that Ann Arbor (Washtenaw) is not in Detroit metro.
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nclib
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« Reply #27 on: January 02, 2009, 10:51:02 pm »

bump

Most of those mentioned, and perhaps Miami and/or Orlando.
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The love that set me free
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« Reply #28 on: January 02, 2009, 10:59:53 pm »

The Philly 'burbs are questionable.

LOL. This guy's track record is just awesome.
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Tyrion The Unbanned
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« Reply #29 on: January 02, 2009, 11:04:22 pm »

What constitutes the suburbs? Depending on the definitions, NYC, Philly, and LA could have suburbs voting for Obama. Here's my list of the top metro areas:

NYC: maybe
LA: no
Chicago: yes
Dallas: no
Philly: maybe
Houston: no
Miami: no
DC: yes
Atlanta: no
Boston: maybe
Detroit: yes
Bay Area: yes
Phoenix: no
Riverside (how is this an MSA larger than Seattle!?): no
Seattle: yes
Minneapolis: yes
San Diego: no
St. Louis: maybe
Tampa: no
Baltimore: yes
Denver: maybe
Pittsburgh: no
Portland: yes
Cincinnati: definitely not
Cleveland: no
Sacramento: no
Orlando: no
San Antonio: no
Kansas City: maybe??
Las Vegas: maybe??

The rest of the top 60 except San Jose, Richmond, and Honolulu will not vote for Obama.




San Jose suburbs are part of the Bay Area
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Alcon
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« Reply #30 on: January 02, 2009, 11:34:36 pm »

The Philly 'burbs are questionable.

LOL. This guy's track record is just awesome.


As much as I appreciate the Pavement binge, stop being a creeper.
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The love that set me free
BRTD
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« Reply #31 on: January 03, 2009, 12:49:31 am »

The Philly 'burbs are questionable.

LOL. This guy's track record is just awesome.


As much as I appreciate the Pavement binge, stop being a creeper.

I didn't bump this thread. It was bumped and I just noticed it.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #32 on: January 03, 2009, 03:51:33 am »

Portland, Oregon

According to my precinct breakdowns:

Clackamas 68% of county is metro with the remaining 32% rural, small town, or exurban on large plots.

Metro ( 58-40 Obama)
Rural, small town, exurban rural (51-46 McCain)

Washington  92% of county is metro... with a large chunk of unincorporated regions.

Metro (61-37 Obama)
Non Urban (52-45 McCain)

This includes landslide victories for Obama in many of the wealthiest suburban communities in the state! This is a major change for the Democratic Party in Oregon and his coattails in metro-Portland (even though Smith won many key wealthy suburban communities) helped Merkley eke out a narrow win here.

Note that I am not including areas of Multnomah county since the overwhelming majority of the county is the city of Portland.... I can always post Gresham percentages, but I think that this would not fit any standard of "suburban" in the traditional sense.

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Brittain33
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« Reply #33 on: January 03, 2009, 10:09:39 am »

The Philly 'burbs are questionable.

Delco: +21%
Montco: +20%
Chester: +9%
Bucks: +8.6%
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memphis
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« Reply #34 on: January 03, 2009, 11:22:02 am »
« Edited: January 03, 2009, 11:30:54 am by memphis »

Philly suburbs were never in play, in June, or at any other point. Taken as a whole, they are reliably Dem.  I confidently predict today that Obama will win them again in 2012.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #35 on: January 03, 2009, 12:38:06 pm »

Oh come on, J.J.'s comment was in JUNE, a lot of places were still up in the air, especially suburbs.  I hate this stupid after-the-fact crap, it's so childish.

Take a look at whose making an issue out of it and then ask yourself if you're really surprised. And it's always easily justified! "I was right all along. They never were in play." They love that Monday morning quarterbacking...until they make a bad call.
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Jimmie
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« Reply #36 on: January 03, 2009, 12:39:10 pm »

The Philly 'burbs are questionable.

LOL. This guy's track record is just awesome.


lol, he is just saying that stuff to get attention. Believe me, this troll can sniff out other closested trolls.
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BRTD
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« Reply #37 on: January 03, 2009, 12:46:43 pm »

Oh come on, J.J.'s comment was in JUNE, a lot of places were still up in the air, especially suburbs.  I hate this stupid after-the-fact crap, it's so childish.

Take a look at whose making an issue out of it and then ask yourself if you're really surprised. And it's always easily justified! "I was right all along. They never were in play." They love that Monday morning quarterbacking...until they make a bad call.

There was never any reason to believe Obama would lose suburban Philly based on polling (even if McCain was slightly ahead that would still equal a victory for Obama) or the double digit swings in them that would be necessary to win them (Except for Bucks). Even you weren't predicting that when you predicted a McCain victory in the state. Of course J. J.'s logic was probably completely on the whole idea that everyone who voted for Hillary in the primary would vote for McCain, remember how he talked about Obama had a huge problem in MontCo? Even you admitted that was ridiculous and that Obama would win MontCo in a walk.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #38 on: January 03, 2009, 12:54:44 pm »

Oh come on, J.J.'s comment was in JUNE, a lot of places were still up in the air, especially suburbs.  I hate this stupid after-the-fact crap, it's so childish.

Take a look at whose making an issue out of it and then ask yourself if you're really surprised. And it's always easily justified! "I was right all along. They never were in play." They love that Monday morning quarterbacking...until they make a bad call.

There was never any reason to believe Obama would lose suburban Philly based on polling (even if McCain was slightly ahead that would still equal a victory for Obama) or the double digit swings in them that would be necessary to win them (Except for Bucks). Even you weren't predicting that when you predicted a McCain victory in the state. Of course J. J.'s logic was probably completely on the whole idea that everyone who voted for Hillary in the primary would vote for McCain, remember how he talked about Obama had a huge problem in MontCo? Even you admitted that was ridiculous and that Obama would win MontCo in a walk.

Early on, many people expected those counties to be fairly close. Plenty of analysts spoke about the Philly suburbs as a swing area. Stop being disingenuous.
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BRTD
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« Reply #39 on: January 03, 2009, 01:00:28 pm »

Oh come on, J.J.'s comment was in JUNE, a lot of places were still up in the air, especially suburbs.  I hate this stupid after-the-fact crap, it's so childish.

Take a look at whose making an issue out of it and then ask yourself if you're really surprised. And it's always easily justified! "I was right all along. They never were in play." They love that Monday morning quarterbacking...until they make a bad call.

There was never any reason to believe Obama would lose suburban Philly based on polling (even if McCain was slightly ahead that would still equal a victory for Obama) or the double digit swings in them that would be necessary to win them (Except for Bucks). Even you weren't predicting that when you predicted a McCain victory in the state. Of course J. J.'s logic was probably completely on the whole idea that everyone who voted for Hillary in the primary would vote for McCain, remember how he talked about Obama had a huge problem in MontCo? Even you admitted that was ridiculous and that Obama would win MontCo in a walk.

Early on, many people expected those counties to be fairly close. Plenty of analysts spoke about the Philly suburbs as a swing area. Stop being disingenuous.

And analysts are full of crap. See Dick Morris. I remember even you saying McCain had no chance in MontCo.
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« Reply #40 on: January 03, 2009, 01:10:08 pm »

Oh come on, J.J.'s comment was in JUNE, a lot of places were still up in the air, especially suburbs.  I hate this stupid after-the-fact crap, it's so childish.

Take a look at whose making an issue out of it
Because one, "ah lol, JJ said it here as well" post is "making an issue out of it"?
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Brittain33
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« Reply #41 on: January 03, 2009, 01:39:55 pm »
« Edited: January 03, 2009, 01:43:46 pm by brittain33 »

Oh come on, J.J.'s comment was in JUNE, a lot of places were still up in the air, especially suburbs.  I hate this stupid after-the-fact crap, it's so childish.

It's a little childish--and I've generally avoided piling on J.J. for several months--but it also shows the danger of making really bold, unsupported predictions in the face of conflicting evidence that includes 15+ years of Democratic trending and voting plus the sharp unpopularity of the incumbent party. If the Philly suburbs were "iffy", then McCain is winning Pennsylvania widely (given Obama's known weaknesses out west) and the country by a sizable margin. That wasn't particularly reasonable in June. 2010 is coming up and soon we'll be in another cycle of people arguing their guts and their wish lists for competitiveness and refusing to take no for an answer.

If Obama had won the suburbs of Philly narrowly, then that would be something, but this is different.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #42 on: January 03, 2009, 04:02:13 pm »

Oh come on, J.J.'s comment was in JUNE, a lot of places were still up in the air, especially suburbs.  I hate this stupid after-the-fact crap, it's so childish.

Take a look at whose making an issue out of it and then ask yourself if you're really surprised. And it's always easily justified! "I was right all along. They never were in play." They love that Monday morning quarterbacking...until they make a bad call.

There was never any reason to believe Obama would lose suburban Philly based on polling (even if McCain was slightly ahead that would still equal a victory for Obama) or the double digit swings in them that would be necessary to win them (Except for Bucks). Even you weren't predicting that when you predicted a McCain victory in the state. Of course J. J.'s logic was probably completely on the whole idea that everyone who voted for Hillary in the primary would vote for McCain, remember how he talked about Obama had a huge problem in MontCo? Even you admitted that was ridiculous and that Obama would win MontCo in a walk.

Early on, many people expected those counties to be fairly close. Plenty of analysts spoke about the Philly suburbs as a swing area. Stop being disingenuous.

And analysts are full of crap. See Dick Morris. I remember even you saying McCain had no chance in MontCo.

Yes, because all analysts are like Dick Morris. No one is as brilliant as you are, BRTD!

Oh come on, J.J.'s comment was in JUNE, a lot of places were still up in the air, especially suburbs.  I hate this stupid after-the-fact crap, it's so childish.

Take a look at whose making an issue out of it
Because one, "ah lol, JJ said it here as well" post is "making an issue out of it"?

One? Really?
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #43 on: January 03, 2009, 04:06:34 pm »


One? Really?
One in this thread, until you (and Alcon before, although under the wrong assumption that Red had bumped the thread.) made an issue out of it. We're talking a throwaway "lol, here too" comment - It takes a hissy to throw a hissy fit over that. (shrugs) (won't be available for further comment as this is really not worth arguing about.)
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #44 on: January 03, 2009, 04:11:15 pm »


One? Really?
One in this thread, until you (and Alcon before, although under the wrong assumption that Red had bumped the thread.) made an issue out of it. We're talking a throwaway "lol, here too" comment - It takes a hissy to throw a hissy fit over that. (shrugs) (won't be available for further comment as this is really not worth arguing about.)

I count more than one (BRTD, memphis and brittain) comment that basically dismisses any idea of the Philly suburbs being in play as foolish but whatever, friend.
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« Reply #45 on: January 03, 2009, 04:28:51 pm »

You're right in that your original comment was aimed at several people. (yah, I came back admit that. Smiley ) But, well, the others involved were even less deserving of your hissy fit. (Oh, and the notion could be pretty safely dismissed... outside of a Republican landslide or near-landslide win. And that, in turn could be pretty safely dismissed as well outside maybe Bush and Cheney both dying in office before August 31st.)
Of course BRTD then talked back at you and you talked back at him and... oh, it's just so dreary and predictable sometimes.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #46 on: January 03, 2009, 04:31:41 pm »

But, well, the others involved were even less deserving of your hissy fit.

The only thing worse than a hissy fit is when people assume you're throwing one but, again, whatever.
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« Reply #47 on: January 03, 2009, 04:32:33 pm »

But, well, the others involved were even less deserving of your hissy fit.

The only thing worse than a hissy fit is when people assume you're throwing one but, again, whatever.
Heh, maybe.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #48 on: January 03, 2009, 05:22:00 pm »

Too Early To Tell. With a few exceptions. Obviously.

u R so rItE!!!1111
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ottermax
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« Reply #49 on: January 03, 2009, 05:25:43 pm »

What constitutes the suburbs? Depending on the definitions, NYC, Philly, and LA could have suburbs voting for Obama. Here's my list of the top metro areas:

NYC: maybe
LA: no
Chicago: yes
Dallas: no
Philly: maybe
Houston: no
Miami: no
DC: yes
Atlanta: no
Boston: maybe
Detroit: yes
Bay Area: yes
Phoenix: no
Riverside (how is this an MSA larger than Seattle!?): no
Seattle: yes
Minneapolis: yes
San Diego: no
St. Louis: maybe
Tampa: no
Baltimore: yes
Denver: maybe
Pittsburgh: no
Portland: yes
Cincinnati: definitely not
Cleveland: no
Sacramento: no
Orlando: no
San Antonio: no
Kansas City: maybe??
Las Vegas: maybe??

The rest of the top 60 except San Jose, Richmond, and Honolulu will not vote for Obama.




San Jose suburbs are part of the Bay Area

I agree with you. I just took the list of the 60 largest MSAs in the country and put them there. I personally think that Riverside is part of LA and San Jose is part of the San Francisco-Oakland MSA (which I mistakenly called the Bay Area) but the census doesn't...
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