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  Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
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Author Topic: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?  (Read 25628 times)
ottermax
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« Reply #50 on: January 03, 2009, 06:07:42 pm »

Here's my estimate of the top 30 MSAs' suburbs vote.

NYC: Obama
LA: Obama
Chicago: Obama
Dallas: McCain
Philly: Obama
Houston: McCain
Miami: Obama (I forgot that the suburbs are more Democratic because of the Cuban vote)
DC: Obama
Atlanta: McCain
Boston: Obama
Detroit: Obama
San Francisco-Oakland: Obama
Phoenix: McCain
Riverside: Obama (big surprise, although close)
Seattle: Obama
Minneapolis: McCain (another surprise... I never realized the split here)
San Diego: Not Sure, but probably Obama (depends on definition of suburb I'll have to wait until CA release city data)
St. Louis: Probably Obama
Tampa: Probably McCain
Baltimore: Probably Obama
Denver: Obama
Pittsburgh: McCain
Portland: Obama
Cincinnati: McCain
Cleveland: Obama
Sacramento: Probably Obama
Orlando: Obama (a huge surprise)
San Antonio: McCain
Kansas City: McCain
Las Vegas: Obama

Feedback would be great! My results look too good for Obama, but he did astonishingly well in many suburbs in large metro areas. However he did horribly in small towns, so there is some balance.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #51 on: January 03, 2009, 07:04:21 pm »

Here's my estimate of the top 30 MSAs' suburbs vote.
St. Louis: Probably Obama

St. Louis County was 59%-39% Obama; St. Charles with 1/3 the vote was McCain 54%-45%. Pretty solid Obama.

Quote
Baltimore: Probably Obama

Yeah. Baltimore County was solid for Obama. Frederick County, strong for Obama, mirrors Harford County, strong for McCain. Carroll County was strong for McCain but much smaller than Baltimore County.

Everything else looks good.
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ottermax
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« Reply #52 on: January 03, 2009, 08:56:37 pm »

Here's my estimate of the top 30 MSAs' suburbs vote.
St. Louis: Probably Obama

St. Louis County was 59%-39% Obama; St. Charles with 1/3 the vote was McCain 54%-45%. Pretty solid Obama.

Quote
Baltimore: Probably Obama

Yeah. Baltimore County was solid for Obama. Frederick County, strong for Obama, mirrors Harford County, strong for McCain. Carroll County was strong for McCain but much smaller than Baltimore County.

Everything else looks good.

My problem is that the MSAs include some counties that are far from their central cities like Queen Anne County across Cheasepeake Bay from Maryland. But by conventional meanings of suburbs, Baltimore's did vote for Obama.
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Matt Damon™
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« Reply #53 on: January 03, 2009, 08:59:02 pm »

Are we like going to see every old thread bumped?
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« Reply #54 on: January 03, 2009, 11:58:39 pm »

I don't know why Phil is so sensitive here, it's not like he's the one who blew the prediction. I remember him even admitting McCain wouldn't win the Philly suburbs and arguing against it. It also should be obvious that McCain wasn't going to get the double digit win in Pennsylvania (and likely nationwide) at any point to do so.

Also, based on other posts J. J. has made, its obvious his argument is based solely on the primary, which is pretty asinine (even Phil has admitted it was really dumb to say Obama was in trouble in MontCo, and go compare Lackawanna primary vs. general for an example of how overrated that is.)
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #55 on: January 04, 2009, 12:00:34 am »

I don't know why Phil is so sensitive here, it's not like he's the one who blew the prediction.

Because you're being ridiculously unfair and you've done it to me before. Get over it.
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BRTD
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« Reply #56 on: January 04, 2009, 12:02:01 am »

Why did even you argue McCain wouldn't win the Philly suburbs then?

I also note you ignored the point about the primary.
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #57 on: January 04, 2009, 12:03:30 am »

The Philly 'burbs are questionable.

Another terrific J.J prediction. Keep it up, bro!
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #58 on: January 04, 2009, 12:05:02 am »

Why did even you argue McCain wouldn't win the Philly suburbs then?

...because I didn't think he'd win there. That doesn't mean that I have to harp on it and rub it in J.J.'s face.

Quote
I also note you ignored the point about the primary.

I don't know what I'm supposed to comment on. I said J.J.'s reasoning was weak. Don't know why I have to address it again. Oh, I know why. It's because you like hearing things over and over and over and over...
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BRTD
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« Reply #59 on: January 04, 2009, 12:11:22 am »

OK fine so you basically agree with me that J. J. is a horrible analyst. You've also admitted this in the past. So why keep up the constant defense of him?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #60 on: January 04, 2009, 12:21:33 am »

OK fine so you basically agree with me that J. J. is a horrible analyst. You've also admitted this in the past. So why keep up the constant defense of him?

I honestly believe that you have some sort of mental disorder in which you constantly need to hear that you're "right" and that others agree with you. You go as far as to blantantly lie about what people say in order to make it seem like we're in agreement.

No, I didn't say that J.J. is a horrible analyst. I said he was wrong about some things. Stop lying and saying that I've admitted something that I've never admitted.

I defend him because you're a major league douchebag and you feel the need to harp on being "right."

You're a sad, sad person, Zach. Very sad.
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BRTD
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« Reply #61 on: January 04, 2009, 12:24:06 am »

NO ONE cares about your stupid vendettas with EVERY poster about completely reasonable wrong predictions from ridiculous periods of time before the event.  This one is nothing compared with the countless idiotic dwellings on singular comments from months or years ago.

Is the quote my sig a "completely reasonable" prediction?

OK fine so you basically agree with me that J. J. is a horrible analyst. You've also admitted this in the past. So why keep up the constant defense of him?

I honestly believe that you have some sort of mental disorder in which you constantly need to hear that you're "right" and that others agree with you. You go as far as to blantantly lie about what people say in order to make it seem like we're in agreement.

No, I didn't say that J.J. is a horrible analyst. I said he was wrong about some things. Stop lying and saying that I've admitted something that I've never admitted.

I defend him because you're a major league douchebag and you feel the need to harp on being "right."

You're a sad, sad person, Zach. Very sad.

"Some" things? Try almost everything.

And if he wasn't an arrogant asshole to everyone who called him on his crap it wouldn't be like this. DWTL has made plenty of comparable idiotic predictions but you don't see him constantly hassled over it. Nor is it just me constantly picking on J. J.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #62 on: January 04, 2009, 12:26:08 am »

If picking on J.J. makes you proud of yourself and gives you so much pleasure, you're in desperate need of our prayers.
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #63 on: January 04, 2009, 12:26:51 am »


NO ONE cares about your stupid vendettas with EVERY poster about completely reasonable wrong predictions from ridiculous periods of time before the event. 

It's not 'EVERY' poster - it's one poster, J.J, and he's chronically wrong. There comes a point where there is only so much BS you can spew under the facade of being knowledgeable, and J.J has exceeded that breaking point. He deserves to be called out.
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BRTD
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« Reply #64 on: January 04, 2009, 12:41:03 am »

NO ONE cares about your stupid vendettas with EVERY poster about completely reasonable wrong predictions from ridiculous periods of time before the event.  This one is nothing compared with the countless idiotic dwellings on singular comments from months or years ago.
Is the quote my sig a "completely reasonable" prediction?

Yes, in MAY.

Obama doing worse than basically every single candidate ever in modern history (including McGovern, Goldwater, Landon, Hoover, Cox, etc.) is a reasonable prediction at any point?

Alcon did the math, that would equal McCain getting over 70%. That was NOT reasonable in May or any month.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #65 on: January 04, 2009, 12:59:02 am »


NO ONE cares about your stupid vendettas with EVERY poster about completely reasonable wrong predictions from ridiculous periods of time before the event. 

It's not 'EVERY' poster - it's one poster, J.J, and he's chronically wrong. There comes a point where there is only so much BS you can spew under the facade of being knowledgeable, and J.J has exceeded that breaking point. He deserves to be called out.

And this has been done for months now.

BRTD has an illness. This is beyond obvious. He obsesses over this stuff. He constantly needs to hear how he was right and the people he hates are wrong.
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BRTD
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« Reply #66 on: January 04, 2009, 01:32:22 am »

NO ONE cares about your stupid vendettas with EVERY poster about completely reasonable wrong predictions from ridiculous periods of time before the event.  This one is nothing compared with the countless idiotic dwellings on singular comments from months or years ago.
Is the quote my sig a "completely reasonable" prediction?

Yes, in MAY.

Obama doing worse than basically every single candidate ever in modern history (including McGovern, Goldwater, Landon, Hoover, Cox, etc.) is a reasonable prediction at any point?

Alcon did the math, that would equal McCain getting over 70%. That was NOT reasonable in May or any month.

Well?

And as Phil has even stated in this thread, I'm not the only one ripping on J. J. I count at least three others.
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #67 on: January 04, 2009, 08:33:41 am »

OK fine so you basically agree with me that J. J. is a horrible analyst. You've also admitted this in the past. So why keep up the constant defense of him?

Same reason you keep up the constant dwelling on it maybe?
This sounds accurate. Smiley
NO ONE cares about your stupid vendettas with EVERY poster about completely reasonable wrong predictions from ridiculous periods of time before the event.  This one is nothing compared with the countless idiotic dwellings on singular comments from months or years ago.
Is the quote my sig a "completely reasonable" prediction?

Yes, in MAY.

Obama doing worse than basically every single candidate ever in modern history (including McGovern, Goldwater, Landon, Hoover, Cox, etc.) is a reasonable prediction at any point?

Alcon did the math, that would equal McCain getting over 70%. That was NOT reasonable in May or any month.
It was of course completely unreasonable in May as well. So? Really man. Stop the gloating.
Obviously Dems now have a tad more reason to gloat than Reps had in 2004 (bigger win, much bigger swing, and ooh yes you people did) but that doesn't make it right.
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Alcon
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« Reply #68 on: January 04, 2009, 12:25:45 pm »
« Edited: January 04, 2009, 12:33:36 pm by Alcon »

BRTD, it was an unreasonable prediction.  It was an unreasonable prediction in May.  It was an unreasonable prediction in 2006.

It's stupid that he won't own up to it.

It's stupid that he won't reform his predictions accordingly.

But you should criticize his current predictions on their merit (or lack thereof) instead of mining the archives like this.

Why?  Because it makes it seem like you can't articulate a current criticism of his ideas and have to attack the messenger.  Which is, by the way, a logical fallacy.

And it's creepy.

Quit it, or stop using my work product to justify it Wink.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #69 on: January 04, 2009, 01:09:23 pm »


My problem is that the MSAs include some counties that are far from their central cities like Queen Anne County across Cheasepeake Bay from Maryland. But by conventional meanings of suburbs, Baltimore's did vote for Obama.

Yes, it's true... it doesn't concern me because many of these counties have 10% or less of the votes of the central suburban counties and McCain didn't win by a big margin, so I felt comfortable saying they didn't make a big difference. If the exurbs of Baltimore voted like the exurbs of Dallas, that would be another matter.
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Verily
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« Reply #70 on: January 05, 2009, 07:20:04 pm »
« Edited: January 05, 2009, 07:22:22 pm by Verily »

The rest of the top 60 except San Jose, Richmond, and Honolulu will not vote for Obama.

Richmond suburbs probably did not vote for Obama. Didn't do the math, but that MSA is quite large.

But some of the other top-60 MSAs did. All three in Connecticut (Hartford, Bridgeport and New Haven suburbs), Albany suburbs, possibly Albuquerque suburbs, maybe the Hampton Roads suburbs depending on how they're defined (which is tough given that the area is mostly independent cities, but some of the independent cities are really big geographically). And, I haven't done the math, but the Raleigh (!) suburbs may have voted for Obama. Certainly they were within single-digits. (Of course, the Research Triangle suburbs all together clearly voted for Obama, but Durham-Chapel Hill and Raleigh-Cary are different MSAs.)
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #71 on: January 05, 2009, 07:35:53 pm »
« Edited: January 05, 2009, 07:37:52 pm by Senator Lief »

Obama won the Austin metro area pretty comfortably, which is 37th, if I remember correctly. Not really surprising though, since Bush barely won it.
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« Reply #72 on: January 05, 2009, 07:40:26 pm »

Obama won the Austin metro area pretty comfortably, which is 37th, if I remember correctly. Not really surprising though, since Bush barely won it.

He sure as hell didn't win it minus Austin though.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #73 on: January 05, 2009, 07:41:19 pm »

Obama won the Austin metro area pretty comfortably, which is 37th, if I remember correctly. Not really surprising though, since Bush barely won it.

He sure as hell didn't win it minus Austin though.
Ah, yeah. Nevermind. Tongue
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nclib
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« Reply #74 on: April 12, 2009, 11:32:35 am »

bump - now that the Calif. city/town numbers are out. The Bay Area obviously did, SD missed narrowly, haven't checked the others.
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