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  Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
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Author Topic: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?  (Read 25682 times)
Sbane
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« Reply #75 on: April 12, 2009, 02:18:23 pm »

bump - now that the Calif. city/town numbers are out. The Bay Area obviously did, SD missed narrowly, haven't checked the others.

Depends on what type of SD suburb we are talking about. Obama won the coastal and affluent 50th CD 51-47. He lost by more than that in the inland redneck/middle class 52nd CD. He also did very well in the inner suburbs of San Diego.
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nclib
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« Reply #76 on: April 12, 2009, 08:55:35 pm »

bump - now that the Calif. city/town numbers are out. The Bay Area obviously did, SD missed narrowly, haven't checked the others.

Depends on what type of SD suburb we are talking about. Obama won the coastal and affluent 50th CD 51-47. He lost by more than that in the inland redneck/middle class 52nd CD. He also did very well in the inner suburbs of San Diego.

I'm defining suburbs as "metro area - central city". In this case, metro SD is just SD county. According to this site , Obama won the city of SD 62.5%-35.7% and McCain won the remainder of the county 50.5%-47.8%.
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Sbane
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« Reply #77 on: April 13, 2009, 10:53:22 am »

bump - now that the Calif. city/town numbers are out. The Bay Area obviously did, SD missed narrowly, haven't checked the others.

Depends on what type of SD suburb we are talking about. Obama won the coastal and affluent 50th CD 51-47. He lost by more than that in the inland redneck/middle class 52nd CD. He also did very well in the inner suburbs of San Diego.

I'm defining suburbs as "metro area - central city". In this case, metro SD is just SD county. According to this site , Obama won the city of SD 62.5%-35.7% and McCain won the remainder of the county 50.5%-47.8%.

Ahh I see. Of course the city of San Diego contains a lot of areas that are basically suburban and very similar to the suburbs surrounding it. If we consider those places to be in the suburban category as well, then I think we would find that Obama carried the suburbs narrowly.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #78 on: April 13, 2009, 02:50:05 pm »

I'm sure the Sac metro is way larger even according to the official definition, rendering the point moot, but I was surprised to notice Obama won Sacramento County minus Sacramento city.
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Sbane
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« Reply #79 on: April 13, 2009, 04:01:47 pm »

I'm sure the Sac metro is way larger even according to the official definition, rendering the point moot, but I was surprised to notice Obama won Sacramento County minus Sacramento city.

No I think it is sufficient. I would actually remove Yolo from the list since Davis is certainly not a suburb of Sacramento. West Sacramento obviously is though. And El dorado county contains a lot of the Lake Tahoe population which is also not a part of the Sacramento area. So I think we can safely say that Obama carried the Sacramento metropolitan area.
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Verily
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« Reply #80 on: April 13, 2009, 06:22:14 pm »

I'm sure the Sac metro is way larger even according to the official definition, rendering the point moot, but I was surprised to notice Obama won Sacramento County minus Sacramento city.

No I think it is sufficient. I would actually remove Yolo from the list since Davis is certainly not a suburb of Sacramento. West Sacramento obviously is though. And El dorado county contains a lot of the Lake Tahoe population which is also not a part of the Sacramento area. So I think we can safely say that Obama carried the Sacramento metropolitan area.

Davis certainly is a suburb of Sacramento. It has a lot of other things going on with UC Davis, but I know at the least my first cousin once removed and her husband live there, and she works in Sacramento. (He has some minor political position in Yolo County.) And it's more or less continuously developed along I-80 with just small gaps of farmland which can't be developed because it floods every year.
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nclib
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« Reply #81 on: April 21, 2009, 09:53:49 pm »

The rest of the top 60 except San Jose, Richmond, and Honolulu will not vote for Obama.

Richmond suburbs probably did not vote for Obama. Didn't do the math, but that MSA is quite large.

Correct.

But some of the other top-60 MSAs did. All three in Connecticut (Hartford, Bridgeport and New Haven suburbs), Albany suburbs, possibly Albuquerque suburbs, maybe the Hampton Roads suburbs depending on how they're defined (which is tough given that the area is mostly independent cities, but some of the independent cities are really big geographically). And, I haven't done the math, but the Raleigh (!) suburbs may have voted for Obama. Certainly they were within single-digits. (Of course, the Research Triangle suburbs all together clearly voted for Obama, but Durham-Chapel Hill and Raleigh-Cary are different MSAs.)

Certainly Providence, RI did. It's worth checking Columbus (OH), Buffalo (NY) and Rochester (NY).
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« Reply #82 on: April 27, 2009, 03:13:13 pm »

Buffalo's MSA has only two counties, both of which voted for Obama, and as Kerry won Erie county outside of Buffalo, Obama had to as well. I doubt Rochester or Columbus did though.
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #83 on: April 28, 2009, 12:51:42 am »

The Philly 'burbs are questionable.

Another terrific J.J prediction. Keep it up, bro!

Gotta admit, that one was funny as hell.  Montgomery, PA= Obama+20.8, Delaware, PA= Obama+21.4, Chester, PA=Obama+9.2 (Dems last win was LBJ in 1964), Bucks, PA= Obama+8.6, Burlington, NJ= Obama+18.6, Camden, NJ(def went for BO minus Camden city)=Obama+36.1, Gloucester, NJ=Obama+12.1.  Of those Bucks probably has the highest element of urban white populism so that result kinda made sense.   
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« Reply #84 on: April 28, 2009, 01:01:21 am »

The funny thing is, based on the stuff he was saying at the time he probably had basically only the primary results in mind when he made that statement. He frequently said Obama was in big trouble in Montco.
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« Reply #85 on: April 28, 2009, 09:11:01 am »

bump - now that the Calif. city/town numbers are out. The Bay Area obviously did, SD missed narrowly, haven't checked the others.

Depends on what type of SD suburb we are talking about. Obama won the coastal and affluent 50th CD 51-47. He lost by more than that in the inland redneck/middle class 52nd CD. He also did very well in the inner suburbs of San Diego.

I'm defining suburbs as "metro area - central city". In this case, metro SD is just SD county. According to this site , Obama won the city of SD 62.5%-35.7% and McCain won the remainder of the county 50.5%-47.8%.

There are plenty of places that are definitely "suburbs of San Diego" by any reasonable definition but which are technically in the city of San Diego proper, so you do have to be quite careful.
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #86 on: April 28, 2009, 05:25:39 pm »

The funny thing is, based on the stuff he was saying at the time he probably had basically only the primary results in mind when he made that statement. He frequently said Obama was in big trouble in Montco.

I wish you could pull up a quote.  WOW, if anything I thought Montco was gonna be his saving grace, not like he even needed it.  I was afraid of a racial backlash coming from South and to an extent Northeast Philly.  Initial polls were not looking good in these areas for Obama pre-economic collapse.  There was one South Philly Ward leader where Kerry won with 71% saying he'd be lucky to see Obama pull 50% and another in a Ward in the Northeast say he'd be lucky to pull 1/3 of the vote pre-collapse (Obama actually won by 17 in that Ward).
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nclib
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« Reply #87 on: April 28, 2009, 06:34:42 pm »

The funny thing is, based on the stuff he was saying at the time he probably had basically only the primary results in mind when he made that statement. He frequently said Obama was in big trouble in Montco.

I wish you could pull up a quote.  WOW, if anything I thought Montco was gonna be his saving grace, not like he even needed it.  I was afraid of a racial backlash coming from South and to an extent Northeast Philly.  Initial polls were not looking good in these areas for Obama pre-economic collapse.  There was one South Philly Ward leader where Kerry won with 71% saying he'd be lucky to see Obama pull 50% and another in a Ward in the Northeast say he'd be lucky to pull 1/3 of the vote pre-collapse (Obama actually won by 17 in that Ward).

I think BRTD was referring to J.J.'s predictions.

bump - now that the Calif. city/town numbers are out. The Bay Area obviously did, SD missed narrowly, haven't checked the others.

Depends on what type of SD suburb we are talking about. Obama won the coastal and affluent 50th CD 51-47. He lost by more than that in the inland redneck/middle class 52nd CD. He also did very well in the inner suburbs of San Diego.

I'm defining suburbs as "metro area - central city". In this case, metro SD is just SD county. According to this site , Obama won the city of SD 62.5%-35.7% and McCain won the remainder of the county 50.5%-47.8%.

There are plenty of places that are definitely "suburbs of San Diego" by any reasonable definition but which are technically in the city of San Diego proper, so you do have to be quite careful.

I understand that. The reverse is true in places like Boston. For the purposes of this thread, I'm using "metro area - central city", because otherwise it would be too complicated to define each neighborhood as "urban" or suburban" and then find election results for it.
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nclib
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« Reply #88 on: July 17, 2009, 09:09:22 pm »

Buffalo's MSA has only two counties, both of which voted for Obama, and as Kerry won Erie county outside of Buffalo, Obama had to as well. I doubt Rochester or Columbus did though.

Buffalo did, and Obama eked out a win in the Rochester suburbs. Didn't win Columbus's suburbs though.
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